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Autopilot update and FSD will be big news in August.
Maybe, but that's too far away for the "3 week" time-frame. Could add a second, or third, booster to the launch though.
Is it remotely likely for profitability in Q2, any chance at all? That would put the cat amongst the pigeons.
And regarding short shorts - well if they're *that¨short then your junk could be exposed...
Thanks to the brilliant work of comrade @jesselivenomore, I wouldn't be surprised if some kind of legal action against notorious FUDsters and other hostile media is in the works...
Shorting as such isn't illegal, but spewing an avalanche of disinformation might be.
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I don’t think q2 profit is in the realm of possibilities. By a couple stars aligning all at the exact same time, perhaps positive FCF. But that is also extremely unlikely.
I was talking about car manufacturing. This is TMC forum, or no ?
I disagree, a profit is what would cause the destruction of shorts and would marry up with Elon’s tweets. A lot of production predictions are factored in. In the end Tesla can make as many EVs as it can if they are willing to lose a couple of billion a year, but doing so profitably changes the game completely.
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mach.89
Member
So it’s technically the weekend so feel I can get away with this data point that is somewhat relevant to our M3 production discussion for investors.... some might find it interesting that I reserved a M3 early May 2018 (for the second time, my first was a day 1 as an owner in line, transferred to my dad who took delivery last December), configured yesterday (Thursday), got the call Friday that the car was ready for delivery here in Marina Del Rey. Oh, and it’s a Black, RWD, LR battery for what it worth. Interesting how fast that was. Flood gates are opening wide perhaps?
Most here know this, but I will voice it.
1) Next week, demand for the stock will create disproportionate price motion.
2) Tesla can create demand for stock by announcing a high fraction of vehicle orders with the fat margin full self diving option. This distances them from other auto manufacturers when people compare.
3) Tesla can report the $3.5K nonrefundable payments differently. The fine print said that money was for order processing [systems]. I added systems as there is a cost to process an order and the investment to do that has been made. I think production of the order configuration is stated to cost $3.5K. I don't know how they will report it.
The production and transaction price for the next full quarter should be defined with hard orders. The factory is booked solid. This implies a very good 3rd quarter statement and enough cash to invest.
I don't know when this news will be shared.
1) Next week, demand for the stock will create disproportionate price motion.
2) Tesla can create demand for stock by announcing a high fraction of vehicle orders with the fat margin full self diving option. This distances them from other auto manufacturers when people compare.
3) Tesla can report the $3.5K nonrefundable payments differently. The fine print said that money was for order processing [systems]. I added systems as there is a cost to process an order and the investment to do that has been made. I think production of the order configuration is stated to cost $3.5K. I don't know how they will report it.
The production and transaction price for the next full quarter should be defined with hard orders. The factory is booked solid. This implies a very good 3rd quarter statement and enough cash to invest.
I don't know when this news will be shared.
erha
Member
Whoa whoa whoa. I don’t think we should run ahead of ourself here. I’d say an exit rate of 5200 is maximum. Try to look at it from the perspective of Elon and Tesla employers. They have probably overcome tons of hurdles we don’t know about and hitting 5k will feel like a massive win. Hence the optimistic tweets from Elon.
How Wall Street will react is not easy to say. I think it will be received very positive, but not short squeeze territory yet. If I had to guess I’d say TSLA trades in the 360s next week. We need positive earnings to break through ATM I think.
How Wall Street will react is not easy to say. I think it will be received very positive, but not short squeeze territory yet. If I had to guess I’d say TSLA trades in the 360s next week. We need positive earnings to break through ATM I think.
i'd just like to say that when Tesla thought Model S or X needed a boost, they had several demand levers they could pull. So imagine when they open up a referral programme with life-time supercharging the reward, will go nuts...
If they need such incentives, that is, which I doubt...
If they need such incentives, that is, which I doubt...
erha
Member
And just to chime in on the discussion about short shorts: Could it be that “short shorts” refers to shorts who are short on cash. I.e. soon all the shorts, which will then trigger a short squeeze.
Words of HABIT
Active Member
Too much emphasis is being placed on Elon's May 4th "short burn of the century" tweet. SP has risen 16% since that day and may have prevented a further drop, so his series of short burn tweets have generated a +-$20% share price premium already. The 5000 M3/wk will need to be convincingly achieved to prevent a reversal. Any additinal sudden large spike in the SP would trap a lot of bears (and bulls that are late to the party) and would likely crash back down, even if resulting in a higher level than today. I'm in this for the long term (years) and with my current position in TSLA thankfully will not be tempted to buy (or sell) no matter how high the SP goes.
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That is only the implementation phase on a project. How much time went into designing, planning, and providing the materials?
Complete makeover home edition does a full house tear down and build in a week, but it is prefabricated and everyone is super optimized.
Tesla China will need specialized equipment: robots with end effectors, stamping press with concrete base, supply chain capacity. It is not a purely physical matter manipulation issue.
That said, the project has been in the works for a while, so maybe those things are lined up... that would provide a large burn at some point in time... "oh hey GF3 (which didn't exist 4 months ago) also made cars last quarter "
The vehicle obviously wasn't built for you. So it is either a re-shuffle of another purchasers car, a potential test drive vehicle, or Tesla is building cars before orders are finalised as they can anticipate a purchase of that spec in short order.
One data point means very little compared to the number of vehicles Tesla is producing. Still, it sounds a little strange that vehicles are being produced without an order in place. I thought that was the core of their business model.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Tesla used to process orders/making cars like it was a Porsche 911. With many options and variants. Including the option of a custom color.
Now it is more like a Honda Accord, including Model S and Model X.
So few options. They can manufacture the limited number of variations, then later match cars to buyers.
Words of HABIT
Active Member
What would happen to the shorts if Tesla offers a buy-out to shareholders to go private at a 50% premium, say $500. Would the shorts effectively fund 30% ($10B) of the premium? Although I would not like Tesla to go private, it would be best for Tesla and their mission. They could Team up with partners for funding initiatives and the FUD would go away.
With the current FUD against Tesla, had Elon taken SpaceX public there is no way they would have achieved what they have today, and more likely SpaceX would have gone bankrupt instead of going to Mars.
With the current FUD against Tesla, had Elon taken SpaceX public there is no way they would have achieved what they have today, and more likely SpaceX would have gone bankrupt instead of going to Mars.
With the number reservations they have (with configuration data by res holders) v.s. the number of physical build options, pretty much every car they build right now lines up with an unfilled order.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Based upon Elon's tweets (which would be suicide if the number is below 5,000)... I would guess that the final seven days' production number is over 5,100 and below 5,200.
Stretch goal... if it is over 5,500... this means that it can be said in the press release that "6,000 per week is around the corner."
Eyes will start to turn towards the EOY2018 goal of 10,000 per week, and if Tesla are already at 5,500+ by July 1st, it will be hard for shorts to argue with any scientific weight that Tesla can't reach 10,000/wk by the end of the year.
I think those numbers will be released after closing on Tuesday 3rd.
I think there will be another announcement after closing on Friday 6th... so the first opportunity anyone will have to trade after that will be Monday 9th, the end of Elon's 3-week countdown. My money is on a Chinese factory announcement: the building is substantially complete, here's the address and some pics, and the schedule for Chinese production (after filling it up with equipment) and deliveries will be announced.
Stretch goal... if it is over 5,500... this means that it can be said in the press release that "6,000 per week is around the corner."
Eyes will start to turn towards the EOY2018 goal of 10,000 per week, and if Tesla are already at 5,500+ by July 1st, it will be hard for shorts to argue with any scientific weight that Tesla can't reach 10,000/wk by the end of the year.
I think those numbers will be released after closing on Tuesday 3rd.
I think there will be another announcement after closing on Friday 6th... so the first opportunity anyone will have to trade after that will be Monday 9th, the end of Elon's 3-week countdown. My money is on a Chinese factory announcement: the building is substantially complete, here's the address and some pics, and the schedule for Chinese production (after filling it up with equipment) and deliveries will be announced.
They have dramatically increased production as people who have reserved in recent weeks are getting VINs and delivery dates in early July.
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