TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Waiting4M3]

I’ve been systematically emailing journalists and their editors who write crap about Tesla. Also commenting in comment sections so all those reading can read about support. (I’m between jobs so I have time).

The fundimentals and truth will win in the long run, but still Tesla is fighting a cultural change (off of oil) which is why I email journalists. Soon the tide will turn as more electric cars hit the market. In the meantime do not underestimate the power of established powers to try and stop or slow down change that affects their way of life. Take every opportunity to speak up at work and
socially about Tesla an electric cars, solar etc. Good news younger generation gets it.

I bought 90 more shares thus week and planning 90 more Monday.

So exciting!

I turned adblocker off on Electrek and other non-FUD sites. Hopefully that drives a little more ad revenue to those sites, and may help with Google search ranking, who knows.

 

[sundaymorning]

It’s Good Friday push. On the road as we speak.

 

[brian45011]

So those shares converted at 11 TSLA for 100 SCTY, about 1.25 million TSLA shares. He also has/had pledged TSLA stock previously. Out of, what, 160M TSLA shares outstanding? Small single digit percentage, is I guess the point.

No, those were TSLA shares since the SCTY acquisition closed earlier in 2016. Elon effectively controlled 36,175,151 shares of TSLA at 12/31/16 (33,175,151 shares owned out right, 2,638,150 via vested options, and the 33,333 shares related to the SCTY zeros).

I was not trying to make a point--just providing available data to those who may have been. One way of looking at this is Elon had pledged 31.6% ( 11.5 MM / 36.2 MM ) of the shares he controlled at 12/31/16 to secure his line of credit from MS bank.

It's impossible to know the terms of that loan nor how much collateral (which also includes some of his SpaceX holdings) MS bank insists on to secure the draws outstanding. The filings used to show the amounts drawn, but awhile back just started to report only shares pledged in the proxies.

IIRC the line of credit started when Elon began borrowing to buy into the follow-on offerings in May 2011. The biggest purchase in those transactions was $100 MM in May 2013, and the most recent for $25 MM in March 2017. During 2016, Elon's pledged shares increased by about 2.1 MM and have been increasing at that rate the last several years. Someone could go back through the prospectus and rack up how much he bought at each follow-on offering to get an approximation of his draws. My guesstimate would be in the low nine figures.

Bottom line there is NO risk of a "margin call" unless and until the share price drops into the mid-double digits. Regardless, MS is one of the largest lenders on the ABL credit agreement and "arrangements" will be made long before that becomes even a possibility.

 

[mickificki]

 

[RobStark]

View attachment 290626

Is that today?

 

[AZRI11]

Is that today?

No old post

 

[AZRI11]

This simulated universe sucks. Elon needs to hack the code. The lead engineer wants to do him in.

 

[ggr]

Mod: In accordance with Lord Vetinari's polite demand, I believe I have moved all the posts about the 3/23 crash to a separate thread. Please keep the followups there. --ggr

 

[bdy0627]

Q1 is going to be another good reminder than the best predictor for quarterly production is taking the claimed exit rate for the previous quarter and assuming that will be the steady rate for the next quarter.

Time and time again, Tesla's production dips down from the exit rate early in the next quarter and then bursts later in the quarter to make that back up. More optimistic assumptions, like splitting the difference between the exit rate and the EoO target rate to estimate the quarter average rate, have always been too optimistic.

So we'll see Q1 production around 12K. Similarly, Tesla should exit Q1 around 2k/wk and then produce about 24K M3 in Q2.

I like this approach moving forward. It seems to have been pretty accurate in the past, keeps the downside surprises in check, and upside surprises would be just fine. However, guidance is for quarterly exit rates rather than production, and this doesn't appear to help forecast the exit rate. Tesla's production rate typically drops for the first part of the quarter from the claimed exit rate of the previous quarter. During the middle of the quarter, it rises to the level of the rate at the end of the prior quarter. It then goes up from there in a burst in the last few weeks.

Edit: Just saw in your last sentence that it does predict the exit level for the next quarter at 2x the claimed previous. So the estimated exit rate for Q2 would be 4,000 then. When does this pattern stop? I'm assuming this would not continue that pattern in Q3. Otherwise, the exit rate would be 8,000, which seems much higher than I would expect at that point.

 

[K_Dizzle]

I like this approach moving forward. It seems to have been pretty accurate in the past, keeps the downside surprises in check, and upside surprises would be just fine. However, guidance is for quarterly exit rates rather than production, and this doesn't appear to help forecast the exit rate. Tesla's production rate typically drops for the first part of the quarter from the claimed exit rate of the previous quarter. During the middle of the quarter, it rises to the level of the rate at the end of the prior quarter. It then goes up from there in a burst in the last few weeks.

Edit: Just saw in your last sentence that it does predict the exit level for the next quarter at 2x the claimed previous. So the estimated exit rate for Q2 would be 4,000 then. When does this pattern stop? I'm assuming this would not continue that pattern in Q3. Otherwise, the exit rate would be 8,000, which seems much higher than I would expect at that point.

So are you saying we’ll have 48k model 3s in Q3 and 96k in Q4?

 

[defc0n]

So are you saying we’ll have 48k model 3s in Q3 and 96k in Q4?

8000/wk in Q4? No way

 

[Tslynk67]

8000/wk in Q4? No way

Well target is 5k/w end Q2, no? So 8k by end Q4 doesn't sound so crazy... (5k by end Q2 is less likely IMO)

 

[defc0n]

Well target is 5k/w end Q2, no? So 8k by end Q4 doesn't sound so crazy... (5k by end Q2 is less likely IMO)

I personally wouldn’t expect much better than 5k/wk average in Q4. I’m well aware of the target rates .

 

[defc0n]

Keep in mind that should theoretically be somewhere close to break even cash flow. The market should consider that a huge success. Model 3s will be popping up over the country and demand should then be very healthy. I would not consider it a failure by any means.

 

[sundaymorning]

One thing that just occurred to me is that Elon has stated during the last CC that Tesla will likely be cash flow positive somewhere in the 3rd Q.

 

[defc0n]

One thing that just occurred to me is that Elon has stated during the last CC that Tesla will likely be cash flow positive somewhere in the 3rd Q.

I’d eat my hat if that happens. The current evidence presented to me does not suggest that possible.

 

[sundaymorning]

I’d eat my hat if that happens. The current evidence presented to me does not suggest that possible.

Make sure you’re betting with a small hat.

 

[defc0n]

Make sure you’re betting with a small hat.

 

[Words of HABIT]

...Good news younger generation gets it.... exciting!

My wife, a kindergarten teacher, asked what one of her students was making....

This child knows that Tesla cars are all electric, don't run on gas, and there is a Tesla car floating in space. The future for Tesla is bright. I wonder what car he is going to buy when he grows up?

 

[bdy0627]

So are you saying we’ll have 48k model 3s in Q3 and 96k in Q4?

No, I don't see how this estimate continues past the 5,000/week target.