TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[mongo]

I don't know a lot about setting up manufacturing lines, but 'just taking it apart and moving it over' seems to me like an immense over-simplification of the entire process. Does anyone have an idea of what kind of work is required to take down a line, ship it across (not to mention all the admin associated with it), and then setup and calibrate the new line in the existing factory?

Is achieving this by the end of march even remotely achievable?

It was designed to be moved to GF1. So I expect it is made of sub-units that connect together. The high precision sections would be grouped so they don't need much if any tuning during reassembly.

 

[AlMc]

Well understand your doubts but allow me to say, as a German engineer talking about German engineers, if Gromann confirmed it works you can be damm certain that it does. Lets not forget that this company is highly recognized as an Expert in automation from leading German automakers (previous customers) who are customers which are more than critical if it comes to performance, quality and time schedule. Risk is they don't reassemble as in Pruen (Gromann HQ) which would surprise me.

Correct me if I am wrong but I heard in the CC the automation works and will be shipped over and installed in the next weeks. If thats true I expect this line to be up an running early/mid March. You can bet they don't put it on a ship to wait 3 weeks to make it over the ocean...

Not a question directed at you....If Grohmann was acquired to build machines like this ...why the heck did they not build the original machines as they were mission critical to the 3 ramp?

 

[avoigt]

My european estimate just changed from ‘end 2018’ to ‘begin 2019’. For both my reservations (first one line waiter, second one october 2016).

My reservation has been put now on early 2019 from perviously late 2018 as well. Looks like they waited for that expected adjustment after the CC to give people the context.

 

[bdy0627]

I think they're having more problems than we thought. Today they moved back the delivery of the short range battery to late 2018. If they are having problems making the battery modules it would seem that the short range would increase the number of cars by one third.

Therefore they must be having problems on the car assembly line, because they could make more cars using the short range battery pack.

They want to bring in as much revenue as they can and keep production as simple as possible right now, which means only 1 model.

Well understand your doubts but allow me to say, as a German engineer talking about German engineers, if Gromann confirmed it works you can be damm certain that it does. Lets not forget that this company is highly recognized as an Expert in automation from leading German automakers (previous customers) who are customers which are more than critical if it comes to performance, quality and time schedule. Risk is they don't reassemble as in Pruen (Gromann HQ) which would surprise me.

Correct me if I am wrong but I heard in the CC the automation works and will be shipped over and installed in the next weeks. If thats true I expect this line to be up an running early/mid March. You can bet they don't put it on a ship to wait 3 weeks to make it over the ocean...

I believe they said it would land at the GF in mid March and then be set up. I don't know how long it takes to get it up and running again at the GF. My guess is that it will be operational at the GF by late March.

 

[johnnybgood888]

I'm am always touched by your kindness in trying to help me out. We got the recent notice our reservation for AWD M3 is pushed out to late 2018. Unfortunately, we have little in the piggy bank, but if the stock does perform well I will be more confident in saddling my much younger wife with a substantially more expensive loan for a MS before the federal tax credit runs out. I'm really hooked on an all wheel drive model. Being an old dog and with an average price of purchase for TSLA of $73 or so, I really have a strong drive to keep the stock forever. Unfortunately for me forever is likely less than five years, Two years ago my mom died at 99, but she was healthier at my age. For some reason I've forgotten I don't think a D and C is in my future as it was hers.

That's bizarre that your reservation for AWD is pushed to late 2018. Online order on the 4th April 2016 from Canada, and up until yesterday, my reservation page has only said late 2018, with no options to pick which model. When I checked again this morning, I now have 3 options, Mid 2018 for both First Production LR PUP and AWD SR/LR, and early 2019 for SR.

At this point, it seems like reservations scheduled deliveries are all over the place, I think it's hard to draw any conclusions as to the ramp from them.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Not a question directed at you....If Grohmann was acquired to build machines like this ...why the heck did they not build the original machines as they were mission critical to the 3 ramp?

A lot of things were mission critical to the Model 3 ramp. Almost everything! They probably couldn't take on all the work.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I believe they said it would land at the GF in mid March and then be set up. I don't know how long it takes to get it up and running again at the GF. My guess is that it will be operational at the GF by late March.

Transcript says it would be at the Gigafactory in "March", not "mid March".

I'd expect it to arrive in early March, for there to be sufficient time left over to get it up and running by late March.

 

[AlMc]

A lot of things were mission critical to the Model 3 ramp. Almost everything! They probably couldn't take on all the work.

I agree. So, First you need batteries, then you need battery packs, then the mission critical moves to Fremont. So, IMO, Panasonic had it's 'stuff' together, so Tesla's first mission critical step was battery pack production which is exactly where the first bottleneck hit.

 

[mutle]

One data point- M3 First production and AWD delivery estimate for Australia changed from early 2019 to late 2018. Only SR RWD remains at early 2019

That's interesting. European (LHD) orders were moved from "Late 2018" to "Early 2019" and the delivery estimator never showed a breakdown for the specific models. With previous cars they launched LHD was always before RHD countries. Does anyone from the UK have an earlier estimate than "Early 2019"?

 

[TrendTrader007]

I totally believe that TSLA will go up big time

 

[Yggdrasill]

I agree. So, First you need batteries, then you need battery packs, then the mission critical moves to Fremont. So, IMO, Panasonic had it's 'stuff' together, so Tesla's first mission critical step was battery pack production which is exactly where the first bottleneck hit.

Completing the production equipment in the order it is needed would be a seriously bad idea. Instead of having ten 18-24 month development cycles in parallel, and basically be done in two years, you'd take 20+ years. (Actually, you'd probably never finish, as the production equipment produced first would likely be obsolete by the time the last production equipment would be complete...)

 

[Starno]

Pretty good start

 

[MP3Mike]

let investors see the semi-automatic battery pack production line at the gigafactory.

I think you misunderstood what Elon was saying. I fixed it for you above.

Hint: He didn't say people could come tour the Tesla Semi production line.

 

[RiverCard]

P.S. I didn't hear any news on the vote for Elon's comp package...?

Definitive proxy filed: official record date is Feb 7

 

[ggr]

Canadians are reporting that their Model 3 estimates actually got better. This could be an indication that the full $7,500 will last though q3.

Our Australian reservation moved up too, to late 2018.

 

[Todd Burch]

Whiplash = TSLA's going to continue to stay about where it is for a while longer ($330-360 range for another month or two).

 

[Tenable]

I have exited my entire short position that I held overnight. GL to all of us longs

 

[BornToFly]

I totally believe that TSLA will go up big time

I have figured out the problem with the SP. It does the EXACT OPPOSITE of what ever 007 says. It has been this way for 6 months. He needs to post that the SP is going to drop below 300 so we can all become crazy rich...

 

[Curt Renz]

Definitive proxy filed: official record date is Feb 7

Indeed, and that could explain some of the early selling this morning. Some institutions may have resumed the lending of their shares to short sellers who in turn performed their dirty deeds.

If you do not want to lend your shares to short sellers, then place a GTC (Good Till Cancelled) order at a high asking price. That's what I did after my brokerage assured me that would be effective.

 

[bdy0627]

Transcript says it would be at the Gigafactory in "March", not "mid March".

I'd expect it to arrive in early March, for there to be sufficient time left over to get it up and running by late March.

I did not get that impression from hearing the call but maybe it was just "March" meaning it could be any time in March.