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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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No, but he can have a trading plan in place that says "If the price drops below $300, I will buy another million shares". So long as he did that well in advance, that would be legitimate. You can have basically anything in a trading plan, so long as it's algorithmically clear.

I think that's only true for selling. I'm pretty sure he can buy as much as he wants, whenever he wants - he just has to disclose it. No?
 
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I think that's only true for selling. I'm pretty sure he can buy as much as he wants, whenever he wants - he just has to disclose it. No?



Material Insider Information
A common misconception is that all insider trading is illegal. Insiders are legally permitted to buy and sell shares of their company's stock. The transactions must be properly registered and filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The illegal type of insider trading takes place when non-public material information for a publicly-traded company is used to provide an unfair advantage to a person or entity that is trading its stock.

It appear to depend on MNPI status (Material nonpublic information) a pre-setup 10b5-1 allow trades at time of MNPI that are not based on the MNPI.

Rule 10b5-1
 
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Well, we are new to this trading game, and don't know sh$t from shinola' about trading for gain. My wife and I believe in global warming. We want to prolong our planets health for our heirs. We believe(d) in Tesla. We bought a solar array (Solar City), ordered a new M3, and bought some stock. Simple? Sure seemed like the right thing to do. Well, Just like everything that involves $ trading, there is Sh$t flying everywhere. Who to believe, who not to believe???? I have grown discouraged. (If)Elon has a temper, and tweets threats, he is no better than Trump. (IF) Tesla is cutting quality checks that (could?) lead to issues, Can he sustain 5K/mo. and grow? Many think not. Not to mention It seems Hog oil has a stake in this. Oil has mucho $$$. I can see where they (oil) could conspire against Tesla, along with many in Washington. Greed has taken over JMO. Tesla has a long up hill climb. This AM we sold some stock. :=\ We feel blessed, and are thankful to have lived during the BEST of times. Things can get better.View attachment 314733
This is the view from our house. We are thankful. God Bless...

With that kind of view you are blessed. All is relative; think this is the final desperate battle of the short sellers. They are spreading the FUD because they know they are about to loose the war. Tesla is about to start to make positive cash flow and profit. It is all over for them then. The only hope they have is the spreading of this FUD. They will not succeed though..
 
I dispute point (1): yes, it raises capital, but Tesla doesn't have to go to the market to do it, so the short view that Tesla can't convince the market to invest more is irrelevant.

Apparently in the past, even though Tesla has long said it would redeem the principal amount of all convertible notes using cash:

"Since we expect to settle in cash the principal outstanding under the 0.25% Convertible Senior Notes due in 2019, the 1.25% Convertible Senior Notes due in 2021 and the 2.375% Convertible Senior Notes due in 2022, we use the treasury stock method when calculating their potential dilutive effect, if any"
In 2017, it began using shares for early redemptions of the 2018 convertibles:

On May 31, 2017, Tesla, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into separate privately negotiated agreements with certain holders of its outstanding 1.50% Convertible Senior Notes due 2018 (the “Notes”) to exchange approximately 1.16 million shares (the “Shares”) of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.001 per share, for approximately $144.8 million in aggregate principal amount of the Notes (the “Exchange Transactions”). The Exchange Transactions were conducted as private placement transactions and the Shares were issued pursuant to an exemption from registration provided by Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”) and were offered only to persons believed to be either (i) “accredited investors” within the meaning of Rule 501 of Regulation D promulgated under the Securities Act or (ii) “qualified institutional buyers” within the meaning of Rule 144A promulgated under the Securities Act. The Company relied on this exemption from registration based in part on the representations made by the holders of Notes in the Exchange Transactions.
The 10k summarized the share-based redemptions as:

In the second quarter of 2017, $144.8 million in aggregate principal amount of the 2018 Notes were exchanged for 1,163,442 shares of our common stock ... As a result, we recognized a loss on debt extinguishment of $1.1 million.

In the third quarter of 2017, $42.7 million in aggregate principal amount of the 2018 Notes were exchanged or converted for 250,198 shares of our common stock ... and $32.7 million in cash. As a result, we recognized a loss on debt extinguishment of $0.3 million.

In the fourth quarter of 2017, $12.0 million in aggregate principal amount of the 2018 Notes were exchanged or converted for 96,634 shares of our common stock ... As a result, we recognized a loss on debt extinguishment of $0.1 million.
The coupon on the 2019 notes is 0.25%. IMO, it's in the shareholders interest to use shares to redeem that debt as new debt (even if another convertible) will likely have a much higher coupon. The coupon on the 2022 convertible notes issued in March, 2017 was 2.375% and bonds issued in August 2017 was 5.3%--FINRA shows recent trades with a yield of 7.36% since they are trading below par.

IIRC, there are covenants in the ABL regarding new debt.


 
we can keep an eye on the pace and character of media responses to Elon’s tweets about the media.

Pravduh tweets last month were swiftly met with a flood of media commentary calling him paranoid, unfit to run a company, Trump-like, desperate and pointing fingers at everyone else for his so-called sinking ship.

So far I’ve only seen this,

Elon Musk lashes out at the media, again

note

1) it’s far less agressive in framing Musk in unflattering terms

2) Business Insider, Reuters, and CNBC all declined requests for comment from the author (and it was a CNBC article)

3) again, it’s the only direct article on this early AM’s Elon Tweets appearing at this point


It’s quite early, but, maybe, this is the first sign that the amount of teeth/cards showing through Elon’s tweets have changed the game to the point that at least some of these media outlets are now looking at what they pump out about Elon, Tesla, and its products, with an eye towards potentially being held legally responsible in a context where they do not know all the cards Elon is holding.

Remember, per Taibbi’s book, it was a lawsuit by Fairfax Financial that turned back the game Chanos et al were playing with media, Fairfax employees, regulators, etc, to try to steer Fairfax into a fabricated crisis of confidence.
 
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When & where will Tesla start producing Semis for sale? Will the sale package include unlimited mega-charging at $0.07/kw-hr? When do they start construction of the mega-chargers?

I think they will build the first Megachargers at customers distribution hubs. If Pepsi buys 50 semis, they can put solar and powerpacks on location. Could be a mix of supperchargers and Megachargers. Because the network will take time, they can satisfy early demand while they build out major corridors first. I expect a mix of supper and mega chargers there as well. Some places drivers will stay overnight.

Thanks. Do you have a view about: When & where will Tesla start producing Semis for sale?
 
we can keep an eye on the pace and character of media responses to Elon’s tweets about the media.

Pravduh tweets last month were swiftly met with a flood of media commentary calling him paranoid, unfit to run a company, Trump-like, desperate and pointing fingers at everyone else for his so-called sinking ship.

So far I’ve only seen this,

Elon Musk lashes out at the media, again

note

1) it’s far less agressive in framing Musk in unflattering terms

2) Business Insider, Reuters, and CNBC all declined requests for comment from the author (and it was a CNBC article)

3) again, it’s the only direct article on this early AM’s Elon Tweets appearing at this point


It’s quite early, but, maybe, this is the first sign that the amount of teeth/cards showing through Elon’s tweets have changed the game to the point that at least some of these media outlets are now looking at what they pump out about Elon, Tesla, and its products, with an eye towards potentially being held legally responsible in a context where they do not know all the cards Elon is holding.

And whaddayaknow - a positive Tweet from Dana Hull!

Dana Hull on Twitter
 
So far I’ve only seen this,

Elon Musk lashes out at the media, again

note

1) it’s far less agressive in framing Musk in unflattering terms

2) Business Insider, Reuters, and CNBC all declined requests for comment from the author (and it was a CNBC article)

3) again, it’s the only direct article on this early AM’s Elon Tweets appearing at this point

This article is content-free, other than reposting Elon's Twitter thread. I'm willing to bet that the flurry of negative media directed at Musk will continue and be increasingly vicious.
 
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I am sure the "Smart Shorts"* use this great opportunity to cover now, it might be the last great opportunity to get out.

I'm not so sure. The next big news item has to be the Q2 earnings, which could be pretty bad. They spent a bunch of money on CapEx last quarter, including air lifting heavy machinery. They spent a bunch of money on overtime pay for 12-hour factory shifts. And they didn't deliver as many cars as Wall St hoped. On the positive side, there was a lot of cash coming in with 2.5k configuration deposits.

All-in-all, it looks like their cash position has gotten pretty bad. I'm not sure shorts will cover.

The Q2 call will focus a lot on forecasts, capital requirements, and reservation numbers.
 
Occurs to me that Elon would not have tweeted what he did regarding Lopez without evidence, otherwise he will be sued for libel, no?
No, he asked a question versus stated a potentially factually backed opinion. (opinions are also somewhat protected speech)
"Are you a shill?"
vs
"I think you are a shill"
vs
"I have data proving you are a shill."
 
No, he asked a question versus stated a potentially factually backed opinion. (opinions are also somewhat protected speech)
"Are you a shill?"
vs
"I think you are a shill"
vs
"I have data proving you are a shill."
I like how he uses their tactics against them. :)

Quite sick of reading misleading headlines phrased as questions.
 
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