TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Skryll]

Irony: When I got my Volkswagen (many years ago), the salesman had me drive it over to the gas station so he could fill it up.
OTOH, when I picked up the Tesla it was only half charged. I immediately picked up my parents and drove up into the mountains for a picnic and to observe the aspen changing colors. When I saw how quickly the charge was going down, I was concerned. (Of course we gained close to 4000 ft altitude, that would explain it.) Fortunately it was a short drive to Silverthorne where we charged, had the picnic, and got back home with plenty of charge.

When we traded in our Honda Odyssey in 2016 for a Tesla Model X90D, we did that right before a long weekend. Moved over the luggage from the Odyssey to the X, and after the factory tour went on to our vacation in the sierras, parking next to a cabin with no cell signal and topping off at 110 outlet at 3 miles per hour No range anxiety, just pure fun. Been an awesome two years, now we added a Model 3 to the family this January.

 

[electracity]

Tesla and EM spoke yesterday, the shorts and bears have spoken today, but we haven't heard yet from some of the big Tesla Bulls and investors yet.

Nah. Traders buy TSLA leading up to news, and sell on the news. This has been a pattern for years. Most TSLA trades are not a statement of bull or bear sentiments. A good trader doesn't love or hate Elon or any CEO.

The news of a burst to 5000 vehicles is the usual Tesla part progress/part b.s. So trading wise its business as usual. How much did Musk fake 5000/week by pushing finished product from week 3 to week 4? We won't have a good idea until the end of the year where real sustained production for last week can be estimated.

 

[dc_h]

Please head over to twitter and give Ross gerber some support. He did great on CNBC today.

CNBC on Twitter

 

[bdy0627]

A recurring part of the news nullification today is about Tesla repeating recent history, and not being able to sustain anywhere near this last weekly rate. If they are able to continue to produce even at 4,000/week moving forward, this latest news distortion by the bears will be toast. Shorts will obviously move the goalposts again, but that should support a strong stock climb. Jonas will have a carton of eggs on his face soon. He's so far been unwilling to budge on his extremely skeptical predictions. 5,000/week in about a year??! He won't be able to continue that stance for much longer, though he too appears to be simply moving the goalposts to support his position. Tomorrow should be interesting. I think another dip is likely, perhaps using the same formula. Let it bounce at open, then bash it down as far as they can.

 

[bdy0627]

I would expect TSLA to go up in AH trading as shorts reload for tomorrow.

 

[Paracelsus]

Hey everyone, yeah difficult day for the bulls today. Basically what happened is that profitability and positive FCF have been delayed 1+ months because of the tent kinda thing. Temporary solutions can be cool for festivals or burning some marshmallows while drinking whiskey but they are not a nice investment case. What we need is sustainable 7-8k weekly M3 production rate. Until we can't be sure of that manipulation will drive the stock price. That's what big guys with firepower will keep on doing. Fundamentals drive the market, technical analysis is pure fiction, and some special agent here should stop fooling people and consider going back to school. I stay long and 100% stock only TSLA. Cheerio

Moving the goal posts to 7-8k weekly?

 

[dc_h]

I said yesterday that the stock would as likely go down on good news. I don’t think this was the short burn moment. I was surprised to see the stock up 22 before the open and thought maybe rational behavior had won the day. At first I was disappointed to see the stock fall back, but when I see the reasoning, I’m super stoked. This is amazing. I am about 50% TSLA, with other stuff in funds or cash. Normally I’d consider my position crazy bullish, but after today I may buy medium term options. The misunderstanding of deliveries and reservations is amazing. The people watching this stock know nothing. No wonder it’s so easy for the shorts to manipulate them. The smart people on the street either run the houses or manage wealth. They won’t get behind tsla until someone big wants to cut back their position after a big run up.
Im not sure if Elon thought this would push the stock up, but it seems like it would have been pretty high risk call, they barely made 5000 and the odds of hitting their goals causing a big run was not assured. With that reasoning I am awaiting the shorts black swan event to happen this Friday or next week.

In the meantime, keep the faith. Holding back this much momentum will only increase the force of the eventual breakout.

 

[Sancho]

Maybe Musk has a few more big cards up his sleeve, maybe not. Sure, I’d love the SP to rise soon and quickly, but my LEAPs are valuable even if it takes the SP six months or more to rise.

Tesla has just crossed the threshold into profitability and positive cash flow. People are just starting to get their first ride in their friends’ and relatives’ M3.

The party is just getting started! Grab a beer and enjoy.

 

[Lbkmxp100d]

I would expect TSLA to go up in AH trading as shorts reload for tomorrow.

Unfortunately, we may have same result tomorrow in regards to SP. with institutional bulls on vacation until Thursday the SP is easily manipulated. Thursday into next week should be different story and most institutions are easily influenced by the FUD.

 

[dc_h]

Moving the goal posts to 7-8k weekly?

Maybe not entirely wrong. The shorts will need to be bloodied and in some cases destroyed. I don’t wish anyone harm, but Tesla didn’t start this battle. People have been shorting the stock since 2012 and Chanos has upped the ante immensely. I think the burn could be tomorrow, but long term, Tesla needs to make a few billion to pay for the next plant. I would prefer borrowing, but easy money ruined cisco (no offense cisco fans) back in the 1990’s and allowed them to buy innovation instead of innovating. Tsla and SpaceX both did amazing things when they had almost nothing, being forced to grow on internally generated cash flow will make tsla stronger and reduce risks during the next downturn. Chanos is setting Tesla up to be the USA manufacturer with the best balance sheet going into the next recession.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

A recurring part of the news nullification today is about Tesla repeating recent history, and not being able to sustain anywhere near this last weekly rate. If they are able to continue to produce even at 4,000/week moving forward, this latest news distortion by the bears will be toast. Shorts will obviously move the goalposts again, but that should support a strong stock climb. Jonas will have a carton of eggs on his face soon. He's so far been unwilling to budge on his extremely skeptical predictions. 5,000/week in about a year??! He won't be able to continue that stance for much longer, though he too appears to be simply moving the goalposts to support his position. Tomorrow should be interesting. I think another dip is likely, perhaps using the same formula. Let it bounce at open, then bash it down as far as they can.

Yes.
Shorts are using politicians' communication strategy: Keep repeating simple message, stay focused on agenda. Same message repeated from several sources.
Truth doesn't matter, it's all about memorable point and affecting those that will not dig further. This is coordinated...
Sad(for human race) and effective...

 

[sundaymorning]

Interesting how the aftermarket stock price looks so flatlined at 335.5 right after the close...

We’re only down $8-9 since Friday close. The bright side is that no one on TMC seems to want to sell. We’re in a much better position than we were last week, I’m happy despite the drop. First time I’ve felt this way in awhile.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I am more positive on Tesla than I've been in months. If I find time, I may describe it, but it would be a long post and time is at premium. Main point is nature of learning in manufacturing env. I have underestimated it and Elon too. But I strongly believe that they're now really learning something that no-one else in industry has, and these skills will be differentiator in the future. This is because no-one else tries crazy stuff like they do. They've paid the price, probably couple of $B, but now I think it was worth it.

If I can find some time from the daily job, I'll add some more TSLA tomorrow.
Having said that, my advice to everyone(non-professional trader) is to not leverage, and to not bet on short/mid term with TSLA, ever.

 

[jelloslug]

We’re only down $8-9 since Friday close. The bright side is that no one on TMC seems to want to sell. We’re in a much better position than we were last week, I’m happy despite the drop. First time I’ve felt this way in awhile.

I want to sell but the price is not at $2000 yet...

 

[madodel]

Maybe not entirely wrong. The shorts will need to be bloodied and in some cases destroyed. I don’t wish anyone harm, but Tesla didn’t start this battle. People have been shorting the stock since 2012 and Chanos has upped the ante immensely. I think the burn could be tomorrow, but long term, Tesla needs to make a few billion to pay for the next plant. I would prefer borrowing, but easy money ruined cisco (no offense cisco fans) back in the 1990’s and allowed them to buy innovation instead of innovating. Tsla and SpaceX both did amazing things when they had almost nothing, being forced to grow on internally generated cash flow will make tsla stronger and reduce risks during the next downturn. Chanos is setting Tesla up to be the USA manufacturer with the best balance sheet going into the next recession.

Just saw this 1997 video of Steve Jobs responding to some complainer's attack because he didn't do what this guy wanted. "You can please some of the people some of the time..." Tim Cook is still dealing with the doubters/attackers despite AAPL having quarters that no other company (except maybe TSLA in a few years) in the world could dream of matching. I don't see these insane attacks on TSLA stopping any time soon, at least not until all the people who make money off of fossil fools are gone.

 

[Words of HABIT]

I am more positive on Tesla than I've been in months. If I find time, I may describe it, but it would be a long post and time is at premium.
If I can find some time from the daily job, I'll add some more TSLA tomorrow.
Having said that, my advice to everyone(non-professional trader) is to not leverage, and to not bet on short/mid term with TSLA, ever.

We’re only down $8-9 since Friday close. The bright side is that no one on TMC seems to want to sell. We’re in a much better position than we were last week, I’m happy despite the drop. First time I’ve felt this way in awhile.

Totally agree. One day's loss does not lose the war. Six years ago, TSLA was $29, now it is $335. IMHO six years from now TSLA will be multiples higher. Those Bears (and Bulls) that were hoping for a quick buck today....not so much.

I spent 2+1/2 hours this evening in my M3 (past the 1000k mark) with the family coming back from cottage country and what fun it is to drive the best car in the world, at any price. Congratulations to everyone at Tesla for producing 5000 M3/week. Amazing achievement and nothing / no one can take that away. Tesla has already won. Long Tesla.

 

[Waiting4M3]

There is a possible sign that paint shop still requires some improvement to maintain 5k/wk: a bunch of Bay Area people are all waiting on white and red colors, the two colors that require multi-coating as I understand. Possibly Tesla was pushing the production pace mainly by building other colors which are quicker to paint. I'm sure this will be in our rearview mirror soon enough, and those waiting on red/white will get their cars soon.

Edit, that thread seems to be showing new updates with people getting their calls/VINs, so looks like Tesla is moving right along with all colors now that the end of Q2 5k/wk crunch is over.

 

[Chartered321]

Maybe not entirely wrong. The shorts will need to be bloodied and in some cases destroyed. I don’t wish anyone harm, but Tesla didn’t start this battle. People have been shorting the stock since 2012 and Chanos has upped the ante immensely. I think the burn could be tomorrow, but long term, Tesla needs to make a few billion to pay for the next plant. I would prefer borrowing, but easy money ruined cisco (no offense cisco fans) back in the 1990’s and allowed them to buy innovation instead of innovating. Tsla and SpaceX both did amazing things when they had almost nothing, being forced to grow on internally generated cash flow will make tsla stronger and reduce risks during the next downturn. Chanos is setting Tesla up to be the USA manufacturer with the best balance sheet going into the next recession.

A couple of months ago I've said 7-8k would have happened in August, now it's safe to say it won't happen before end of September. That IMHO would trigger the short squeeze. Until then I will keep on giving my shares available for shorting.
Feed the enemy and starve the beloved

 

[kbM3]

Just saw this 1997 video of Steve Jobs responding to some complainers attack because he didn't do what this guy wanted. "You can please some of the people some of the time..." Tim Cook is still dealing with the doubters/attackers despite AAPL having quarters that no other company (except maybe TSLA in a few years) in the world could dream of matching. I don't see these insane attacks on TSLA stopping any time soon, at least not until all the people who make money off of fossil fools are gone.

Kind of amazing how a video from 20 years ago and an industry far away can seem so relevant in many ways to Tesla.

Thanks for sharing.

 

[Causalien]

Sorry guys, some of that selling pressure at $360 was me. 2 things: 1. Had to take some positions off since I entered around $260. 2. I executed according to 8 ball's will.

Then because the shorts was having so much fun. I re-entered some call option at $335.

Seems like lack of sleep + being pumped full of caffeine makes my trading sense top notch.