TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[MP3Mike]

With ~$40 billion short,

But they are only ~$12 billion short, not $40 billion...

Not to mention a lot of TSLA holders wouldn't sell. Big holders like Elon...

 

[Todd Burch]

dumping most likely because of this :

Tesla lagging on Model 3 production, workers say

wishing it is a bear trap... would that be legal ?

From the article:

The company was able to assemble and paint 210 Model 3s during the first of two 12-hour shifts on Wednesday, one worker told Reuters.

That would be a production rate of 2,940/wk. Do you seriously think the rate is that low? No way. Source = "three line workers".

I call bologna.

 

[RobStark]

Toyotas net income in 2017 was north of $22 billion and they are trading on a PE ratio of about 9. They sold ~9 million cars to achieve that. VW Group had to sell more than 10.5 million cars in 2017

"Toyota said Tuesday its global vehicle sales in 2017 totaled a record 10,386,000, up 2.1%, compared to the 10.74 million, up 4.3%, sold by Volkswagen in the same period."

Toyota falls to third place in 2017 global car sales

 

[Boomer19]

dumping most likely because of this :

Tesla lagging on Model 3 production, workers say

wishing it is a bear trap... would that be legal ?

reuters hasn’t had a good thing to say about tesla in a while either, article after article of negativity

 

[Drax7]

Whomever is leaking this information is probably another
Sabotager , with the intent to harm the firm. This is
Not whistleblowing.

 

[kbM3]

I'm assuming a serious long already has a substantial long position and is already positioned to gain from a run up. The question is piling on now with whatever powder one has in reserve or waiting opportunistically for higher volatility to open up lower prices in the future. This is why I issued a "last call for $330 shares" a few days ago. A long should have gotten in by that point, in my view.

I am so humbled by the intelligence, wisdom and knowledge of so many posters in the investor threads. You are at, or near the top among these. If I question, it is more in the vein of an attempt to understand, than an expression of doubt.

I agree completely with the enemies of Tesla and the good news nullification theory, but I feel that to have dry powder over the next couple of weeks, is to effectively say Elon engaged in hyperbole when he said the shorts position will explode in early July.

What am I missing?

 

[SteveG3]

If there is so much big money being used against Tesla, I don’t get why they wouldn’t just buy the company in a hostile takeover and then kill it?

With ~$40 billion short, that was about the same as the market cap of the company not that long ago. Seems like a more rational use of anti-Tesla money than conspiratorially pouring more and more money in just to temporarily hold the share price down for a little longer.

The idea is helping to slow down the catalyzing effect of Tesla on the global transition to EVs by several years. The oil profits (and continuing ICE age profits for that matter) make losing $10-20 billion in a Tesla short position look like a great investment from a strictly monetary perspective.

Hostile takeover and kill? Interesting idea. Far, far more conspicuous.

fwiw, isnt it about $12-15 billion short currently, something close to half of which are so to speak innocent bystander shorts. So, perhaps, $10-12 billion is about a bigger game, if this is actually what has been happening.

 

[GaryW]

If there is so much big money being used against Tesla, I don’t get why they wouldn’t just buy the company in a hostile takeover and then kill it?

With ~$40 billion short, that was about the same as the market cap of the company not that long ago. Seems like a more rational use of anti-Tesla money than conspiratorially pouring more and more money in just to temporarily hold the share price down for a little longer.

The value of the fossil fuel industry appears to be greater than $100 Trillion.

If Tesla succeeds with power, battery storage, and transport, that value plummets in the direction of zero.

Many, many people own a part of it. For example, anyone still own a ICE car?

Many, many people work somewhere in the industry.

If Tesla dies, will most or all of the Tesla killers die as well? I think all of them die, until the Chinese arrive and take over.

Why not just buy Tesla and kill it? Wouldn’t it be far more profitable to cut off it’s cash, short it, and kill it?

 

[Causalien]

I am so humbled by the intelligence, wisdom and knowledge of so many posters in the investor threads. You are at, or near the top among these. If I question, it is more in the vein of an attempt to understand, than an expression of doubt.

I agree completely with the enemies of Tesla and the good news nullification theory, but I feel that to have dry powder over the next couple of weeks, is to effectively say Elon engaged in hyperbole when he said the shorts position will explode in early July.

What am I missing?

Well, most of us in the know already used up the dry powder around 250.

If I have more foresight and prescience, I'd have sone dry powder, around 1%, to make a one directional bet on Elon's short bomb. It is a good volatility bet. Even better is if you have enough for a straddle. But I can't see that far ahead.

 

[jhm]

(as a response to general discussion of a short squeeze here more so than jhm’s specific comment)

or

-the majority of the short position is about a much bigger game than actually believing/betting that Tesla is overvalued,

-which would be consistent with the fact that there was no short squeeze in 2013,

- and the prediction that there will be no short squeeze in 2018,

-and the hypothesis that those holding the bulk of the short position in Tesla are not crazy or foolish, but rather, working their ultra concentrated wealth network to keep the river of falsehoods about Tesla gushing so as much of the public as possible thinks crazy foolish things about TSLA, Tesla, and its products (ie, media miscoverage of Tesla is far from simply “clickbait” pressures).

I think we're on the same page here. If by "no short squeeze" you are excluding what some have called a "rolling squeeze," then we're good. Otherwise, I would say that in a rolling squeeze, you've got a conveyor belt of dumb bears that lose money all the way up. There are smart ones that can trade around this. I also am inclined weight to the idea that multiple multi-trillion dollar industries to be disrupted by tiny Tesla can generate really strong opposition. Losing a few tens of billions in defense of industries worth multiple trillions is a small price to pay.

 

[Tslynk67]

dumping most likely because of this :

Tesla lagging on Model 3 production, workers say

wishing it is a bear trap... would that be legal ?

It's the old unidentified "workers on the production-line", which stinks. Furthermore, it's not at all in-line with the expectations that Elon has been creating and I just cannot believe he'd set himself up for such a big fall.

 

[YasB]

"Toyota said Tuesday its global vehicle sales in 2017 totaled a record 10,386,000, up 2.1%, compared to the 10.74 million, up 4.3%, sold by Volkswagen in the same period."

Toyota falls to third place in 2017 global car sales

Ah ... your are right. I took the number from their report (page 6), but it looks like that doesn't include Daihatsu and Hino Motors. As a group they sold 10.4 not 8.9 million vehicles. Thanks for the correction

http://www.toyota-global.com/pages/contents/investors/financial_result/2018/pdf/q4/presentation.pdf

 

[ZsoZso]

With ~$40 billion short, that was about the same as the market cap of the company not that long ago. Seems like a more rational use of anti-Tesla money than conspiratorially pouring more and more money in just to temporarily hold the share price down for a little longer.

Shorting requires just pouring money into the pit, but hostile takeover would require majority of the shares to be available to purchase on the market, which may not be necessarily true with certain large share-holders such as Elon keeping their shares and not offering it for sale. Similarly some large institutional holders. The effective float available on the market is probably too little percentage wise to allow a hostile takeover.

 

[Unpilot]

The tide is turning for sure Shell buys NewMotion charging network in first electric vehicle deal is one example. Here is another BP buys UK's largest car charging firm

The big players know the direction this is going.

 

[Boomer19]

I think we're on the same page here. If by "no short squeeze" you are excluding what some have called a "rolling squeeze," then we're good. Otherwise, I would say that in a rolling squeeze, you've got a conveyor belt of dumb bears that lose money all the way up. There are smart ones that can trade around this. I also am inclined weight to the idea that multiple multi-trillion dollar industries to be disrupted by tiny Tesla can generate really strong opposition. Losing a few tens of billions in defense of industries worth multiple trillions is a small price to pay.

@jhm the bull head fake seems to be in full effect today

 

[Causalien]

Tesla Shares Slide After Reports That Model 3 Production Is Lagging

"Tesla is sending out emails to all Model 3 reservation holders in the US and Canada explaining that they need to pay $2,500 to confirm their order online or lose it."

What is this about having to pay $2500 and confirm or lose the deposit? Is this another disinformation war since I didn't see any email regarding this.

 

[Tslynk67]

Tesla Shares Slide After Reports That Model 3 Production Is Lagging

"Tesla is sending out emails to all Model 3 reservation holders in the US and Canada explaining that they need to pay $2,500 to confirm their order online or lose it."

What is this about having to pay $2500 and confirm or lose the deposit? Is this another disinformation war since I didn't see any email regarding this.

Total hit-price... Please don't give the tosser any more clicks...

 

[jhm]

I am so humbled by the intelligence, wisdom and knowledge of so many posters in the investor threads. You are at, or near the top among these. If I question, it is more in the vein of an attempt to understand, than an expression of doubt.

I agree completely with the enemies of Tesla and the good news nullification theory, but I feel that to have dry powder over the next couple of weeks, is to effectively say Elon engaged in hyperbole when he said the shorts position will explode in early July.

What am I missing?

Ah sucks, you make me blush.

I believe Elon. I am just thinking that there could be an initial downward response before the burn on the century takes off. I am not sure which way it will go. Just pointing to a plausible scenario. I like that the price did not get out of hand today. If we go in with lots of hype, it increases the chance of effective news nullification. If the price is more tempered, there is less room to push it down.

 

[dmckinstry]

except that Elon has already communicated profitability in CQ3

Which is why shorts will be so surprised when it actually happens. When have shorts every believed anything Elon has said?

 

[juanmedina]

Another gem from our friend Lora: Tesla is asking Model 3 reservation holders for another $2,500 to order their cars

I though this was common knowledge. I think she needs a real job...