TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Zaxxon]

Also, they've said in their updates that it's likely overestimating right now as it hasn't yet taken the shutdown into consideration. Should correct once new VINs begin to be assigned post-shutdown.

 

[EinSV]

Short interest as of 4/13 was a whopping 38.2M shares — up 10M shares in only one month. Short Interest Tables - WSJ.com

This suggests the data posted by @ZachShahan at CleanTechnica from IHS/Markit showing current short interest is now over 40M shares is likely correct.Tesla [TSLA] Now Really A Dramatically Shorted Stock (#CleanTechnica Exclusive) | CleanTechnica

Wow.

Much of this latest round of shorting took place after Tesla’s delivery letter and subsequent reports showing better than expected production and IMO likely reflects an effort to prevent a short squeeze by stopping the SP from spiraling out of control.

 

[MikeC]

Short interest as of 4/13 was a whopping 38.2M shares — up 10M in one month. Short Interest Tables - WSJ.com

This suggests the data posted by @ZachShahan at CleanTechnica from IHS/Markit showing current short interest is now over 40M shares is likely correct.

Wow.

Settlement date of 4/13 means that was the count on 4/10 when it closed at 304.70. We're significantly below that now so I would expect current short count to be even higher. I have not seen it this high in years. I wonder if we see a little stampede now that they know how crowded it is.

 

[EinSV]

6.5M net shares were shorted in a two-week period.

To give a sense of the magnitude of this, the largest amount of net shorting in two-week period over the past year was only 2M shares (except the previous two weeks’ 3.5M shares).

 

[Mich]

vincent (@vincent13031925) hat getwittert:
Tesla announced Model 3 showcase in Major Cities of China from 4/28-7/23 , pre-order numbers will skyrocket $TSLA vincent on Twitter vincent on Twitter

This doesn't make any sense if they don't start production in china very soon...

More update for you guys about Model 3 getting ready for

Beijing Auto Show in less then 10hrs for the first time. -- from my tweeter account vincent on Twitter

 

[NicoV]

The Model 3 VIN assignment spreadsheet now shows that VIN assignment has resumed after the production shutdown.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I should qualify that I'm assuming no ZEV credits (I think they will hoard those for Q3).

I think that's quite possible. Using the ZEV credits to be profitable in Q3, and then being profitable in Q4 without ZEV credits.

 

[Causalien]

6.5M net shares were shorted in a two-week period.

To give a sense of the magnitude of this, the largest amount of net shorting in two-week period over the past year was only 2M shares (except the previous two weeks’ 3.5M shares).

Aw man. I wanted to rest after filing my taxes. Now I have to login to my brokerage and analyze some data to see if there's anything to take advantage of.

 

[MikeC]

Tesla Steals the Limelight at Beijing Car Show

 

[Causalien]

Aw man. I wanted to rest after filing my taxes. Now I have to login to my brokerage and analyze some data to see if there's anything to take advantage of.

Finished checking. There's no "trick like in 2013 where some institution was exploiting the infinite loop at no risk. So all these shorts are basically organic real shorts who believed in the media and putting up their own money. Quite amazing actually.

 

[wnorris]

6.5M net shares were shorted in a two-week period.

To give a sense of the magnitude of this, the largest amount of net shorting in two-week period over the past year was only 2M shares (except the previous two weeks’ 3.5M shares).

What would crush the short trade would be for Tesla to announce any sort of creative funding through alternate channels. An example might be that Tesla could leverage Apple Music as the music service in all of their cars. Apple could offer Tesla a low interest loan from their massive cash pile. Say, a 5 year music deal for 3B loan. This expands the Apple Music service and puts Apple's cash to use by hitting a valuable demographic.

Tesla gets needed cash for continued aggressive expansion for the Semi, Roadster, and Model Y. Elon certainly has the contacts for this type of non-standard deal.

 

[sweter]

I agree that bad Q1 financial is baked in at $280, and any confirmation of 3k/wk should more than cancel it out, but there may be a couple of days of dip after the ER until people finish crunching the numbers and project into Q2/3/4. Hope you chow down.

You'd think so, but I don't know. That's rational thinking which we know $TSLA is not accustomed to.

Given the macros I think there's a chance of panic selling after bad ER.

 

[Runarbt]

Short interest as of 4/13 was a whopping 38.2M shares — up 10M shares in only one month. Short Interest Tables - WSJ.com

This suggests the data posted by @ZachShahan at CleanTechnica from IHS/Markit showing current short interest is now over 40M shares is likely correct.Tesla [TSLA] Now Really A Dramatically Shorted Stock (#CleanTechnica Exclusive) | CleanTechnica

Wow.

Much of this latest round of shorting took place after Tesla’s delivery letter and subsequent reports showing better than expected production and IMO likely reflects an effort to prevent a short squeeze by stopping the SP from spiraling out of control.

Wow.

Same numbers on this site, with some extra info:

TSLA - Short Squeeze Stock Short Interest for Tesla Motors Incorporated

21% increrase in short position since last count. And we still hover around $300. A few positive catalysts and market turning green and we should see new ATH hopefully soon.

How are the interest on shares borrowed at the moment?

 

[Runarbt]

You'd think so, but I don't know. That's rational thinking which we know $TSLA is not accustomed to.

Given the macros I think there's a chance of panic selling after bad ER.

I dont think we will see any panic selling. With an aditional 6.5million shares shorted the past two weeks, this can explain why we havent risen anywhere above $300 sp. Shorts trying to make the impression longs are loosing faith in Elon, combined with heavy FUD focus in media.

I dont think many longs are worried or planning to sell. I am not at least. ;-) So when shares to borrow start to go down towards zero-- and shorts are unable to push more shares out at low prices.. sp should start to climb, and force short covering. And we enter a new positive trend towards ATH. .imho.

 

[Chartered321]

Short interest as of 4/13 was a whopping 38.2M shares — up 10M shares in only one month. Short Interest Tables - WSJ.com

This suggests the data posted by @ZachShahan at CleanTechnica from IHS/Markit showing current short interest is now over 40M shares is likely correct.Tesla [TSLA] Now Really A Dramatically Shorted Stock (#CleanTechnica Exclusive) | CleanTechnica

Wow.

Much of this latest round of shorting took place after Tesla’s delivery letter and subsequent reports showing better than expected production and IMO likely reflects an effort to prevent a short squeeze by stopping the SP from spiraling out of control.

This makes 100% sense as fund managers have short term horizons and they clearly talk to each other. Today everything is so fully valued and highly priced that people struggle buying any asset class. That's why cryptocurrencies are back and shorts are clearly appealing investment ideas.
Short term going again Tesla made absoulutely sense, as the production suffered a delay of 9 months vs guidance, long term, if a black swan event does't occur, profitability and stable positive cash flows will bring back Tesla valuation to the multiples it belongs.

 

[Yggdrasill]

You'd think so, but I don't know. That's rational thinking which we know $TSLA is not accustomed to.

Given the macros I think there's a chance of panic selling after bad ER.

I also don't think we'll see panic selling. I think we'll see a relief rally when it becomes clear Tesla is doing okay and isn't going bankrupt any time soon. And that could definitely trigger shorts to cover, driving the SP up more.

In the last 30 days I've added 250 shares, and the shorts won't get them back from me until we hit 400. (Okay, *maybe* I'll give some back when we hit 350.)

 

[Wenche]

Short interest as of 4/13 was a whopping 38.2M shares — up 10M shares in only one month. Short Interest Tables - WSJ.com

This suggests the data posted by @ZachShahan at CleanTechnica from IHS/Markit showing current short interest is now over 40M shares is likely correct.Tesla [TSLA] Now Really A Dramatically Shorted Stock (#CleanTechnica Exclusive) | CleanTechnica

Wow.

Much of this latest round of shorting took place after Tesla’s delivery letter and subsequent reports showing better than expected production and IMO likely reflects an effort to prevent a short squeeze by stopping the SP from spiraling out of control.

Settlement date of 4/13 means that was the count on 4/10 when it closed at 304.70. We're significantly below that now so I would expect current short count to be even higher. I have not seen it this high in years. I wonder if we see a little stampede now that they know how crowded it is.

6.5M net shares were shorted in a two-week period.

To give a sense of the magnitude of this, the largest amount of net shorting in two-week period over the past year was only 2M shares (except the previous two weeks’ 3.5M shares).

Here is the short value of Tesla shown at IB as of 20th April.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Tesla Steals the Limelight at Beijing Car Show

"Local media and attendees swarmed around a blue Model X, a red Model 3 and a white Model S, with the Tesla stand gathering the largest crowds early on at the Beijing auto show even as Toyota Motor Corp. and Daimler AG were holding their media events elsewhere at the exhibition."

 

[vinvin218]

vincent (@vincent13031925) hat getwittert:
Tesla announced Model 3 showcase in Major Cities of China from 4/28-7/23 , pre-order numbers will skyrocket $TSLA vincent on Twitter vincent on Twitter

This doesn't make any sense if they don't start production in china very soon...

More info about Model 3 showcase in Major Cities of China:

Tesla choose 8 major cities for this Model 3 showcase, all these cities have highest avg income, highest purchasing power.

Here is the detail of this showcase dates and locations

Shanghai (location 1) 4/28-5/6

Shanghai (location 2) 5/8-5/22

Beijing (location 1) 4/28-5/8

Beijing (location 2) 4/25-5/8

Guangzhou 4/28-5/2

Hangzhou (location 1) 5/1-5/2

Hangzhou (location 2) 5/15-5/29

Chengdu (location 1) 5/26-6/3

Chengdu (location 2) 6/13-6/26

Ningbo 6/3-6/20

Xian 7/14-7/23

And as Tesla China announced , these are the first few cities having the Model 3 showcase event, more cities will be added very soon!

As we see the dates and locations above, we are confirmed multi Model 3 were sent to China for this event, and quit convincing to me that Model 3 is on the right path of ramping, Tesla is ready to accept more pre-orders from China customers.

 

[schonelucht]

Before depreciation close to 100-250 cash flow negative.

How do you mean this statement?