TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[RobStark]

Does anyone here know of a map or an aerial photograph that show exactly what plots of land Tesla owns around the gigafactory?

 

[defc0n]

Everyone and their mother knows Q1's financials will look bad.

I think price action for this ER will be dominated by

a) What is production rate now?
b) How is ramp looking, and how soon will the bleeding stop?

Neither of these 2 things are going to be entirely clear to us before the ER. I think I'm just going to hold going into ER, because:

1) If it's not looking great, the drop will be temporary. Tesla will get their act together soon enough.
2) If it's looking great, I will have missed the train.
3) I think (2) is more likely than (1), given that Elon has been hanging at the factories lately.

I don't doubt a drop will be temporary. But I don't share your view that (2) is likely. Do you think Musk can say anything much more promising for the upcoming quarters which he hasn't said already? Namely, that he has already claimed profitability for Q3 & Q4? The SP has already shrugged that off it seems.

I'm always willing to be proven wrong, and we'll find out soon anyway.

 

[elasalle]

I don't doubt a drop will be temporary. But I don't share your view that (2) is likely. Do you think Musk can say anything much more promising for the upcoming quarters which he hasn't said already? Namely, that he has already claimed profitability for Q3 & Q4? The SP has already shrugged that off it seems.

I'm always willing to be proven wrong, and we'll find out soon anyway.

If new Grohmann line as well as new M3 production rate of 3K/week plus is announced with 5K/week target still in play for end of Q2, why will there be a drop?

If the above can be met, there should also be some updates for TE etc. A further confirmation that there will be no cap raise could also be mentioned in post CC call.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I don't doubt a drop will be temporary. But I don't share your view that (2) is likely. Do you think Musk can say anything much more promising for the upcoming quarters which he hasn't said already? Namely, that he has already claimed profitability for Q3 & Q4? The SP has already shrugged that off it seems.

I'm always willing to be proven wrong, and we'll find out soon anyway.

My guess is the market is discounting what Elon said about Q3/Q4 profitability now. But if they keep reaffirming it in the next 4 events over 3+ months (Q1/Q2 quarterly earnings calls, investor meeting, Q2 delivery report), while confirming progress to 5k/wk, at some point the market has to accept it.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

So what are the shorts actually hoping for, that M3 production doesn't ramp fast enough, Tesla run out of cash and have to go to markets, but then get refused? Is that it? Is there anything else?

Or is it just a bunch of rich haters throwing money into a burning pit?

Most of the shorts that I talk to are hoping that they reach 5k per week soon so as to prove/disprove our theory that the company will still be unprofitable at that level.

And I don't know anyone who "hates" Tesla. We just think Tesla is the most over-priced major stock in the market and we're discussing/acting accordingly. For most of us (all the people I speak to) this is a relatively small (albeit relatively interesting) part of our portfolios.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

What calls are you looking at? I would like to take advantage of the leverage but I’m afraid of a further macro slide

In that case you can buy a combination of Tesla calls and index puts (not advice - just mentioning the possibility).

 

[CuriousSunbird]

I would expect Q1 earnings to look a lot better than the state of the FUD suggests and thus result in a bounce up instead, especially if accompanied with above expected earnings from tesla energy and a model 3 runrates past Q1 that are no longer speculation but substantiated.

OK, I'm expecting a GAAP loss of $875 to $900 million. What's your expectation?

 

[Todd Burch]

I don't doubt a drop will be temporary. But I don't share your view that (2) is likely. Do you think Musk can say anything much more promising for the upcoming quarters which he hasn't said already? Namely, that he has already claimed profitability for Q3 & Q4? The SP has already shrugged that off it seems.

I'm always willing to be proven wrong, and we'll find out soon anyway.

Well, I think this last shutdown will be proven fruitful, and he’ll be able to share some concrete numbers on the production increase.

If he instead says “we’re still under 2500/wk but improvements coming soon”, then I agree promises about the future won’t mean much.

 

[BornToFly]

I think 280s in an incredible price. I will pick up shares tomorrow, and more next week when I have more cash. I just hope it doesn't climb until after the ER. When we were in the 340s, I thought Q1 ER would cause the stock to drop. At the current price, I just don't see that happening, and I think confirmation of 3k+ per week will cause it to climb.

 

[vinvin218]

I am glad that media start to mention the China Auto Show

Tesla debuts the Model 3 in China at the Beijing Auto Show

 

[vinvin218]

Some old Info, just in case someone missing this piece, G Poseidon departure from SF Pier 80 on Feb 24th 2018, Destination : China Shanghai , Approximate amount of vehicles : 2000 ( seems like most of them are X )

And here is my Tweet with pic : vincent on Twitter

Starting to deliver in China March 23th 2018

And here is my Tweet with pic : vincent on Twitter

 

[vinvin218]

Beijing Auto Show Update: Tencent now is promoting Tesla Model 3 Beijing Auto show with in Tencent video media !!

Here is the video from Tencent Media : 腾讯视频

And here is my tweet : vincent on Twitter

Like i said earlier , Tencent gonna be a “supportive shareholder”

 

[vinvin218]

There might be couple of Ad from Tencent (around 1 min) before playing the Auto Show video

 

[Waiting4M3]

I think 280s in an incredible price. I will pick up shares tomorrow, and more next week when I have more cash. I just hope it doesn't climb until after the ER. When we were in the 340s, I thought Q1 ER would cause the stock to drop. At the current price, I just don't see that happening, and I think confirmation of 3k+ per week will cause it to climb.

I agree that bad Q1 financial is baked in at $280, and any confirmation of 3k/wk should more than cancel it out, but there may be a couple of days of dip after the ER until people finish crunching the numbers and project into Q2/3/4. Hope you chow down.

 

[dc_h]

OK, I'm expecting a GAAP loss of $875 to $900 million. What's your expectation?

I would guess close to 600 million. Before depreciation close to 100-250 cash flow negative. All things not to bad. If they deliver 25,000 cars in Q2 they’re close to cash flow neutral. If they exit Q2 over 4000 W3 profit seems highly likely, making cash flow positive of about 600 million.
I can only hope there are still 35-40 million shares short when that happens.

 

[defc0n]

Such a crowded short trade right now. That’s going to make things all the more interesting soon. This is by far the most interesting stock I’ve watched.

 

[Krugerrand]

Most of the shorts that I talk to are hoping that they reach 5k per week soon so as to prove/disprove our theory that the company will still be unprofitable at that level.

And I don't know anyone who "hates" Tesla. We just think Tesla is the most over-priced major stock in the market and we're discussing/acting accordingly. For most of us (all the people I speak to) this is a relatively small (albeit relatively interesting) part of our portfolios.

 

[Krugerrand]

Beijing Auto Show Update: Tencent now is promoting Tesla Model 3 Beijing Auto show with in Tencent video media !!

Here is the video from Tencent Media : 腾讯视频

And here is my tweet : vincent on Twitter

Like i said earlier , Tencent gonna be a “supportive shareholder”

I couldn’t understand a word. He talks too fast and with an accent. But he seemed positive.

 

[bdy0627]

Bloomberg model 3 tracker now 3052/wk!

Here's what I'm seeing:

 

[CuriousSunbird]

I would guess close to 600 million. Before depreciation close to 100-250 cash flow negative. All things not to bad. If they deliver 25,000 cars in Q2 they’re close to cash flow neutral. If they exit Q2 over 4000 W3 profit seems highly likely, making cash flow positive of about 600 million.
I can only hope there are still 35-40 million shares short when that happens.

I should qualify that I'm assuming no ZEV credits (I think they will hoard those for Q3).