TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[EVNow]

Let's keep one eye on the $/kWh for batteries. I know it's not Moore's law, but let's see if doesn't go sub US$100, then head for sub US$50, at which point only the rich will be using the more expensive petroleum vehicles, even in India.

Not sure how much you know about India, only the rich have cars 44 cars per 1,000 people in India compared to 941 cars / 1,000 people in US. Even at $50 a kWh, a 100 kWh battery will cost $5000 - 1/2 the price of an average Indian car.

Yes, eventually oil demand will suffer because of EVs, but even in the US, it may take a decade for EVs to get 10% market share.

BTW, coal was not done in by solar - but by cheap natural gas due to fracking and regulations.

 

[Electroman]

Jim Chanos reveals bets against Las Vegas Sands, Wynn Resorts amid US-China trade war

Hmm.. that page has two videos, one Chanos explaining his reasoning for shorting Casinos, and another on the impact on short interest rake hikes. Nothing about Tesla.

 

[larmor]

I will point out that, as noted in the Wired article itself and in the comments, plenty of wildly successful CEOs have been prone to temper tantrums and had poor personal skills. Henry Ford was brought up in the comments...

I think the Wired article is essentially accurate regarding Musk's, um, "management style". There's been far too much other evidence supporting this over the last decade to dismiss it. He *is* firing people when he shouldn't be, for stupid reasons. He *is* misdirecting the company's resources to whatever tweet he just read rather than to long-standing very important problems which affect thousands of customers. He *is* creating unnecessary chaos and he *is* burning out and ticking off people who quit, who he'd be better off keeping. He *is* doing this because he's trying to save the world from global warming, and he *is* a lot better when he doesn't have severe sleep deprivation. That said, I think the sleep deprivation seems to be getting better and he's started having a better sense of prioritization; maybe after a while he'll stop alienating people like Field who would be valuable to him.

Most of this observed behavior, is what it takes to make a ground breaking product with strict adherence to quality and perfection. I read the article too, and while the diction is screaming, omg, the words which that stick with me: "telling them that at Tesla excellence was a passing grade," that is what i want to hear from a company that is at the cutting (bleeding) edge...

Where is Steve Jobs, would have liked to have him continue pushing apple.... Maybe no one got in his grill and said, hey you need to really treat the cancer right away-- 'excellence is a passing grade'

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Now I am intensely curious about Belgian tax law. Can you start a NEW TOPIC please?

Listen, we're gonna need you rested as we head into the stretch here. Starting Belgian tax law threads at midnight is not healthy!

 

[neroden]

interesting picture, retail investors have been selling this ride, but price going up. so this means all shares getting picked up by big boys. found it on twitter, its statistics of robinhood users.

It's sort of classic for the "small retail investor" to get in and out at the wrong time while big investors make the right move. It's not always true, but it's a truism. Interesting if it's happening.

 

[neroden]

OT

Saudi Arabia Pumps Up Stock Market After Bad News, Including Khashoggi Murder

Wouldn’t be surprised if they are buying more TSLA. Would be hilarious if we found out institutions were dumping right into Saudi’s strong hands.

Edit: yes I am aware the article talks about Saudi stock market

Oh dear god, the Saudis are going off the rails.

So, you know how we've all talked about how Saudi Arabia needs the oil price to be pretty high in order to balance their budget, which they use to bribe the local population into not overthrowing them? We thought of the collapse of this budget as a *future* event.

Well, bin Salman is wasting money on the unutterably stupid Yemen war. He's throwing money (riyals) into an attempt to make the local stock market look good. (Perhaps these stocks are collateral for dollar loans?) In the last few years, they've been taking out dollar-denominated loans because the world markets expect the riyal to drop its dollar peg.

Famously, bin Salman has shaken down a bunch of the rich Saudi businessmen to make them give "contributions" to him (with the bizarre "luxury hotel arrests").

Is it possible that Saudi Arabia is just about out of hard currency already? As in, they're going to have to break the dollar peg within the year?

I hadn't thought about this, but they may be MUCH closer to bankruptcy than they appear. The actions they're taking are looking more and more like they're trying to cover something up, and the most likely thing is that the treasury is running out of hard currency.

If so, you heard it here first...

 

[neroden]

OT

BTW, coal was not done in by solar - but by cheap natural gas due to fracking and regulations.

You're looking at the US. Go look at Australia, where wind is clearly killing coal.

 

[Artful Dodger]

"So, do you think we sent ourselves a message?" 3 * 5 * 139

333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333

 

[jhm]

OT



Oh dear god, the Saudis are going off the rails.

So, you know how we've all talked about how Saudi Arabia needs the oil price to be pretty high in order to balance their budget, which they use to bribe the local population into not overthrowing them? We thought of the collapse of this budget as a *future* event.

Well, bin Salman is wasting money on the unutterably stupid Yemen war. He's throwing money (riyals) into an attempt to make the local stock market look good. (Perhaps these stocks are collateral for dollar loans?) In the last few years, they've been taking out dollar-denominated loans because the world markets expect the riyal to drop its dollar peg.

Famously, bin Salman has shaken down a bunch of the rich Saudi businessmen to make them give "contributions" to him (with the bizarre "luxury hotel arrests").

Is it possible that Saudi Arabia is just about out of hard currency already? As in, they're going to have to break the dollar peg within the year?

I hadn't thought about this, but they may be MUCH closer to bankruptcy than they appear. The actions they're taking are looking more and more like they're trying to cover something up, and the most likely thing is that the treasury is running out of hard currency.

If so, you heard it here first...

Time to short the Saudi stock market?

 

[neroden]

OT

Time to short the Saudi stock market?

Uh, no. In the scenario I'm envisioning, if you had a Saudi trading account and had made a short sale, your account would be frozen, the money from your sale would be seized by bin Salman, and you'd be disallowed from profiting... and possibly threatened if you entered the country...

 

[jhm]

OT


Uh, no. In the scenario I'm envisioning, if you had a Saudi trading account and had made a short sale, your account would be frozen, the money from your sale would be seized by bin Salman, and you'd be disallowed from profiting... and possibly threatened if you entered the country...

Hmm, now that you mention it, I am rather attached to my legs.

Maybe we should send in a high profile short like Chanos.

 

[EVNow]

You're looking at the US. Go look at Australia, where wind is clearly killing coal.

Yes, there are a number of small countries that are making big switches - even larger ones like Germany. Regulations have been very important, though.

 

[Vitold]

Most of this observed behavior, is what it takes to make a ground breaking product with strict adherence to quality and perfection. I read the article to, and while the diction is screaming, omg, the words which that stick with me: "telling them that at Tesla excellence was a passing grade," that is what i want to hear from a company that is at the cutting (bleeding) edge...
Where is Steve Jobs, would have liked to have him continue pushing apple.... Maybe no one got in his grill and said, hey you need to really treat the cancer right away-- 'excellence is a passing grade'

I think good example would be when he let go Lattner and hired Karpathy. I loved when he hired Chris but I do understand that priority was not pretty code but innovation.

 

[gora321]

Austrian invitation

 

[gora321]

Could pass 200.000 VIN registrations by end of the year

#Tesla registered 394 new #Model3 VINs. ~100% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 188134.
Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) | Twitter

 

[Buckminster]

After 21 votes, getting a squeeze sooner rather than later seems likely, according to forum members:

Which comes first; Shexit or Brexit?

1. 
   Shexit comes after 29th March 2019
   5 vote(s)
   23.8%
2. 
   Shexit comes before 29th March 2019
   9 vote(s)
   42.9%
3. 
   Shexit never happens
   3 vote(s)
   14.3%
4. 
   Brexit gets delayed/postponed
   4 vote(s)
   19.0%
   

 

[sundaymorning]

Anyone here noticed that model 3 tracker on Troy’s spreadsheets for the last 7 days quietly breached 6k/week? This would explain the slew of PT upgrades as well as continuous buying.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...3Z_3NijFCqQDbwUyvycGyJ/pubhtml?gid=1690783525

 

[NicoV]

Austrian invitation
View attachment 360851 View attachment 360852

You made me check My Tesla. Nothing yet (in Belgium).

Maybe Belgian reservations will open last in Europe because they can deliver everywhere in Belgium from Zeebrugge in one day. I wouldn’t mind taking delivery in Zeebrugge. It would be the European equivalent of taking delivery in Fremont.

Note to self: keep 31 march 2019 free in my agenda.

 

[sundaymorning]

Jim Chanos reveals bets against Las Vegas Sands, Wynn Resorts amid US-China trade war

Now I know where to go to spend my TSLA earnings when I’m in Vegas.

The Sands and Wynn will be swarmed with Tesla owners soon.

 

[Tslynk67]

Surprisingly decent article in Politico tonight - they got it mostly right (including Frunk puppies!)

Why Trump Can't Kill the Electric Car
(via POLITICO for iOS)

Why Trump Can’t Kill the Electric Car

Politico is a great site - slightly left-leaning, I'd say, but not rampant like Huff... Their weekly cartoons are brilliant...

OT

Now I am intensely curious about Belgian tax law. Can you start a NEW TOPIC please? None of this makes any sense from an American context...

I'm not sure it's a rabbit-hole you really want to go down, but here you go: Belgian Tax Law

I'm pretty sure that @NicoV knows much more than I do - for a start he's a REAL Belgian, not a phoney Brexit migrant like myself