TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[tivoboy]

My money's on green by EOD

Now I'm going back to sleep for a spell

I'll take the RED on that bet..

 

[tivoboy]

Dang it, TSLA, you're going the wrong way... Weren't you much happier in the lower $330s?

patience!.. wait, oh about 3.-3.5 hours.
don't forget people, tomorrow is a VERY light trading day in US markets. Same is true for Friday, but where there is usually a lot of "oh my god, how incredible were the Black Friday (Thursday) sales" rhetoric - which based on retail reports already I don't think that is going to be the narrative.

So, ask yourself, how many computers/traders (okay, come on we KNOW it's the computers) want to be net LONG until NEXT MONDAY?

A lot can happen between now and then. Is betting on being long the mkt, nsdq, (insert tech/auto company here). just sayin'

 

[Artful Dodger]

Flight from the Euro to the dollar will drop all USD denominated equities.

Do you mean when Euro-equities are sold to buy USD-equities? Doesn't that create buying pressure causing the SP to move up? Or are you referring to something else?

Cheers!

 

[EVNow]

technically, we never really know exactly WHEN the recession "hits" until after it has hit.

Even though that is technically correct - in practice economists have been able to predict 10 out of the last 7 recessions.

 

[FrANce]

Yes, I meant didn’t. I should have used the word production instead of adoption or specified EV adoption by OEMs. I assumed everyone here knew what I meant/could read my mind.

OEMs should be pumping out EVs like crazy by now, that was the Tesla plan; show that EVs could be compelling, spurring them all on. But that didn’t happen. So a few years back Elon changed his mind about what Tesla would do to make OEMs produce EVs or die. My money is on die.

Thanks so much for explaining, got it now

 

[Nocturnal]

That expression is going nowhere. People still say "take the reigns" right?

 

[colettimj]

[snip]

TL;dr: Tesla is battery cell constrained.

This also (I believe) is one of the reasons Tesla came out with the MR Model 3. It may have also been to draw in some folks that were waiting for the SR. Regardless, I can't image any of the other auto companies shifting gears like this to address a supply issue and continue to work towards a higher production volume. They'd probably just slow production until supply caught up since they are conditioned towards annual product cycles. Tesla isn't built that way and certainly can't afford to just twiddle their collective thumbs waiting for supply to catch up.

 

[shrspeedblade]

patience!.. wait, oh about 3.-3.5 hours.
don't forget people, tomorrow is a VERY light trading day in US markets. Same is true for Friday, but where there is usually a lot of "oh my god, how incredible were the Black Friday (Thursday) sales" rhetoric - which based on retail reports already I don't think that is going to be the narrative.

So, ask yourself, how many computers/traders (okay, come on we KNOW it's the computers) want to be net LONG until NEXT MONDAY?

A lot can happen between now and then. Is betting on being long the mkt, nsdq, (insert tech/auto company here). just sayin'

Based on this, I assume if you're sitting on the sideline with a bit of dry powder it's probably better to wait it out for the next couple of days?

Just asking for a friend.

 

[Joe F]

Based on this, I assume if you're sitting on the sideline with a bit of dry powder it's probably better to wait it out for the next couple of days?

Just asking for a friend.

Yes. No.

Get better friends?

 

[ZachF]

Yes, $TSLA today almost perfectly mirrored the fluctuations of the NASDAQ-100 futures: they bottomed together and they peaked together.

The macro fears are justified: both Italy and BRExit are big unknowns that will have global effects if the crisis escalates, Trump obviously can tank the economy. Flight from the Euro to the dollar will drop all USD denominated equities.

At least the U.S. housing market doesn't look like is tanking from today's report (as expected really), that's one less recession trigger to worry about.

FWIW, India will probably leapfrog France and Britain to become the #5 economy next year.

 

[Buckminster]

Assuming Model Y with 80 kWh and Semi with 1000 kWh. Further assuming a similar gross margin for both and a average selling price of $55000 and $170000, that would be $687 in revenue per kWh for the Model Y and $170 for the Semi.

So revenue per kWh is much better for the Y.

Edit: Source for 1000 kWh estimate: Tesla Semi truck's battery pack and overall weight explored

One of the genius things about the Semi is that Tesla can order a huge number of batteries. If Panasonic deliver, they can ramp up and deliver hand built Semi's. If not, MY's get the lion share and not so much lost - based on your numbers above. This is in addition to an almost limitless order quantity on Panasonic for power packs and power walls which will probably be further down the pecking order than Semi's. Panasonic will soon get an order so big they will have to get it checked by Tesla management to confirm the number of zeros!

 

[Zaxxon]

That expression is going nowhere. People still say "take the reigns" right?

Hopefully not many. Much more popular is 'take the reins.'

 

[Fact Checking]

Do you mean when Euro-equities are sold to buy USD-equities?

When Euro flows into the Dollar due to Euro risk then it's usually into treasury bonds or work-alikes. When the dollar gets say 1% stronger against most other currencies then in the first approximation, all other things equal all USD denominated equity prices will be lower by about ~1% - that way their 'value' measured via a global basket of currencies is still roughly the same.

In reality it's more complex, as the U.S. market itself is a significant part of the global economy, and firms are exposed to it in different proportions - plus risk related flows rarely happen in isolation so we can rarely observe the 'all other things equal' scenario.

But from a pure value accounting POV if for example the dollar strengthens by 1% due to some completely oil-unrelated event, and the crude oil markets are otherwise uneventful, then the price of oil will have to drop by about 1%.

 

[Buckminster]

Electric Jaguar F-Type could arrive by 2021 | Autocar
Jaguar choice is between a V8 or EV. PHEV not considered for sports cars. Turbo's seemingly no longer good enough either. The decision is born from performance reasons rather than eco credentials. Not a great look for a big company like JLR to have to go to BMW for a decent engine either!

 

[lklundin]

FYI, the informative part starts a bit after 6:00.

Some commentary on reddit:

After getting wrecked by Crude Oil and Natural Gas this week, “fund manager” James Cordier breaks down during his weekly report (he actually looks like he’s going to hang himself) : wallstreetbets

He got hit by the moves in fossil fuels. Apparently he was selling deep OTM naked puts and deep OTM naked calls and didn't have the capital to cover the costs on the strong moves -- badly overleveraged.

It looks like he lost on the naked calls on NG, which are super dangerous, and didn't have them properly protected with more-distant calls. NG spiked up this week. Simultaneously he had naked puts on oil, which cratered this week.

Never sell naked calls ever, since they're a leveraged version of short-selling. If you're considering doing one, use a call spread instead; still has a chance of losing a lot of money but not *infinite* risk like naked calls.

Naked puts are also very dangerous, although I do sell them; for my TSLA "naked" puts, I have the cash to execute all of them with funds from other investments even if the other investments drop in value by a lot.

I feel sorry for him in some ways, because he actually knows a lot about commodities trading and option selling in particular, but he overleveraged badly and didn't understand the market he was trading in. (Some commenters say that natural gas options/futures are called "widowmaker" trades due to the extremely high volatility spikes. Gunjan Banerji on Twitter )

He also clearly didn't understand the fundamentals of the NG/oil market, but I'm not sure that's what really sank him. The white paper I wrote last March (which I am going to publish soon; it's been "client and friend only" long enough) predicted an eventual drop in oil prices and a subsequent/concommitant rise in NG prices, which are artificially low due to the fracking bubble. So with those as the long-term trends I would never run a trade against the long-term trend. But he didn't know the fundamentals well enough. But it seems like he got sunk mostly by making risky naked call trades in a known-volatile market.

My conclusions: Never trade without knowing the fundamentals, even if you're a short-term technical trader. Never get overleveraged. And never, ever, ever sell naked calls.

I guess that's what the other side of a short squeeze looks like...

During his apology, Cordier talks about his clients having to make deposits to their accounts to cover the losses of his fund. Do I understand this correctly, that with this investment fund investors did not only lose their entire principal, but are actually out of more than that?

If that is true, would there not need to be a pretty serious upfront warning about that type of investment?

Having recently settled one high-profile case, there could be something more interesting here for the SEC to investigate...

PS @neroden, after having read your impressive article
The Doom Of Fossil Fuel Investments | CleanTechnica
I conclude that:
A) James Cordier was not lucky enough to be among your friends... - and
B) I will stay out of options trading of any kind...

 

[EVNow]

FWIW, India will probably leapfrog France and Britain to become the #5 economy next year.

Not if Modi has his way

 

[Artful Dodger]

Mr. Keatle? Meet Mr. Black:

 

[MP3Mike]

I guess that's what the other side of a short squeeze looks like...

During his apology, Cordier talks about his clients having to make deposits to their accounts to cover the losses of his fund. Do I understand this correctly, that with this investment fund investors did not only lose their entire principal, but are actually out of more than that?

That is correct. One person said that they had ~$400k in and now they owe more than $100k.


Am I a bad person for hoping this happens to the Tesla shorters soon?

 

[Bobfitz1]

Yeah, Panasonic is still quite damp: (down 34% YTD)

View attachment 354200

At the current pace of 1 new bty cell line per Quarter, GF1 would take 16 years to reach full 150 GWh/yr capacity. Even at 1 new line / month, it will take 5 years to full capacity (2023).

Reports I've seen are that Panasonic is currently adding 3 new 5GWh lines to bring GF1 up to 35 GWh from 20. Originally they were expected to be online by end of this year. I think one or two of those were pushed out to Jan/Feb.
This suggests that if the demand requires, Panasonic can add at least 6 - 8 new lines next year after these 3. That many would bring GF1 to 65 - 75 GWh by end of next year.

Why do you believe that all Panasonic can manage is adding one new 5 GWh line per quarter?

 

[MartinAustin]

Did Bob Lutz go on CNBC and somehow avoid questions about Tesla? They are supposedly heading for the graveyard...