TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Menifeer]

You lost the money others gave you to take the risk, but actually you bought the stock at a lower price compared to when you entered the trade a while back


Edit:
When SP at 320, I sell a PUT for 25, knowing either it expires or it gets exercised for 295(which is OK for me at that point in time). Using PUTS knowing the two outcomes, not sure if others are using for more leverage, or guaranteed profits.

Anything I am missing in this PUTS setup?

No need to be forced to buy the shares.

I sold Apr 13 $340 and $325 Puts a while back, and now they're both deeply under water.

Since they're now trading with no time value, I'll roll them to June or later to avoid assignment (I don't want to buy the shares). In the process, I'll add some $$ to the account. If/when the share price recovers, I'll be able to exit the positions profitably.

 

[AZRI11]

I've been a Tesla owner since 2013, and have bought 3 so far, but Elon is now on my hit list. My investment strategies for the last 5 years have been based on the information that he has given us (I listen to ever earnings call and read every earnings report). I understand that manufacturing is hard, but I expect the CEO to have a freaking clue about the ramp and the challenges they face. The fact that he has been more wrong that I thought humanly possible, has now cost me an incredible amount of money. I will get maybe half of it back if the stock recovers in the next 6 months, but I have no choice now but buy back at a huge loss naked Puts that I sold two months ago, because my account has dropped so much that even though I didn't use Margin, I am getting margin calls on my naked Puts (which don't expire for 9 more months). This would NOT have happened if Elon had been even close to accurate. After I weather this storm, I will NEVER, EVER, base any of my investing in TSLA on what Elon has to stay. I use to think people that called Elon a Liar were a bunch of paid trolls. Now I realized that half of them were right. This is a sad day for me because I have really admired the guy. Don't invest based on what Elon says - advice!

Sorry you feel that way. I'm a long term investor. Elon chose the worst industry to disrupt. He's all in, and I'm 50% in. One caveat, not one company he's ever ran made a profit under his tutelage. He's due.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

TSLA dropped aftermarket to $272, Moody downgrade may take another bite out of SP.
Tomorrow could be a good setup for capitulation... Or not
My plan has changed. If it continues going down, I'm throwing everything in at $250, 2020 leaps (I am already nicely leveraged), and I'm borrowing from my HLOC somewhere between $200-$220, just like in Feb '16! Those buys created some spectacular returns at the time.

Just an update.
After receiving comments from the more experienced TMC member, I've decided to hold off on further buying, until I'm 'certain' we're at the bottom, or really, really low.

After all, the one thing I've learned is that I'm more comfortable missing upside, than looking at my portfolio decimated, even if temporary.

In practical terms this probably means that my 'all-in' moment comes closer to $200, not $250... Hopefully I have no chance to execute that strategy.

 

[traxila]

So... Nothing. I tune everything out with the exception of Model 3 ramp.

Well the downgrading of the bonds could matter....but like you said, Model 3 ramps and it all goes away.

 

[Todd Burch]

Electrek: Tesla elaborates on details and potential cause of fatal Model X crash under investigation

Tesla Blog Post: What We Know About Last Week's Accident

Looks like this may be more an issue for the California Department of Transportation than Tesla.

Cliff notes on what CalTrans should do, IMHO:

1. Replace those crush barriers immediately.
2. Paint chevrons across the pseudo-lane in which the concrete barrier is centered.
3. Erect a taller warning sign with chevrons--higher than the low elevation barrier sign that's there now.

 

[bdy0627]

Yes, it does. I was thinking about that earlier.
More worried about macros now though.

Right, macros seem clearly more volatile. I want to go back to that dip and see what macros were doing. I can handle continuing to add on a big dip as long as my conviction in TSLA climbing again reasonably soon remains high. By soon, I mean like it did after that dip. Macros will have to play a part in that, which increases my concern about adding further here. I honestly can't imagine getting out of leverage now after a dip of 20%. You either got out a long time ago or only added a small amount so far. I got out after our rise to $347 but started lightly adding around $330 and heavily adding around $315. The way to really make this a disaster is to exit now. Even if we drop further here, from the perspective of 2 months in the future, I firmly believe it is best to hold at this point.

 

[bdy0627]

Even more interesting: $7 below the closing price on September 4, 2014. More than 3.5 years ago.

That's really astounding. Frustrating for the buy and hold approach, even though it should work very well many years down the road, assuming Tesla does what we expect it to do. However, this is a massive argument to me for doing at least some modest shifting of leverage on dips and climbs.

 

[aznt1217]

Sorry you feel that way. I'm a long term investor. Elon chose the worst industry to disrupt. He's all in, and I'm 50% in. One caveat, not one company he's ever ran made a profit under his tutelage. He's due.

Pretty sure SpaceX is but who knows. TSLA actually did one quarter. It’s certainly possible but it takes money to make money. With that said, to the other person... sorry you have losses, but that’s no one else’s fault but yours. If you were trading options you should’ve had a hedge or own the underlying or something. You can’t invest on blind faith.

 

[mongo]

That's really astounding. Frustrating for the buy and hold approach, even though it should work very well many years down the road, assuming Tesla does what we expect it to do. However, this is a massive argument to me for doing at least some modest shifting of leverage on dips and climbs.

Sept 2014 was a local maximum. Hopefully, this is a local minimum.

 

[bdy0627]

Downgrade from Moody's Moody's downgrades Tesla debt to B3, fearing liquidity pressure

Uh-oh. That doesn't look good. I'm guessing that will be worth another big dip tomorrow.

 

[bdy0627]

I remember @TrendTrader007 saying he'd get back in at these levels. Are you in yet? The sad bunch here could use a bit of your optimism.

No kidding. His twitter feed is still dead.

 

[defc0n]

I still think nasdaq will go back up tomorrow and haven’t changed my belief we are back at the macro bottom. Very worried about TSLA at this price point though. The 280 resistance was not encouraging at all. I have my powder ready. Good luck all.

 

[dw4ngg]

The longer it takes Elon to exceed market expectations and create sustainable & positive cash flow from operations, the more likely stock will be super volatile and trend downward. With this many shorts, and their cash on the line, they’re gonna battle tooth and nail to mess with TSLA’s capital requirements in the near term to destroy TSLA. Elon’s gotta treat this as a stock price battle right now.

 

[bdy0627]

TSLA dropped aftermarket to $272, Moody downgrade may take another bite out of SP.
Tomorrow could be a good setup for capitulation... Or not
My plan has changed. If it continues going down, I'm throwing everything in at $250, 2020 leaps (I am already nicely leveraged), and I'm borrowing from my HLOC somewhere between $200-$220, just like in Feb '16! Those buys created some spectacular returns at the time.

I'm now leveraged to the gills on the way down and keep adding. I've started selling other stocks to add since I'm out of cash. I was focusing on June and April calls but I think those are too risky given the overall situation now. Time to back off those and go back to adding J19s and Sep18 calls. Those are cheap enough now anyway. It's definitely a time not to look closely at my account since it is dropping by the bucketloads with this dip. I'm not doing this for an immediate gain. I'm doing it for the long climb back up that is coming.

Did anyone who kept adding on the way down in Feb 16' regret it? I don't think so, just don't get burned with calls that don't give you enough time for a climb. That's what I'm reminding myself now. The one's who regret the Feb 16' dip undoubtedly are the ones who decided to sell during the dip or were on margin and had to liquidate. The stock climbed from the $141 bottom to $169 in 5 trading days. That's nearly a 20% gain in 1 week. Over the next 6 trading days, it climbed to $188. That's a gain of 33% from $141 in 11 trading days. That's the reason to keep adding on a dip like this IMO. Even if you missed the bottom and added on that dip at $160 and $150, you were well-rewarded for taking that risk when everyone else was selling like mad.

One other thing that's helpful to recognize. Macros sucked during the Feb 16 dip. They were definitely part of the reason for the deep dip. Here's the chart for the Nasdaq over that time period followed by the chart for the TSLA dip.

 

[Time]

YAWN. Still have my 500 shares.

YOU CAN HAVE MY SHARES WHEN YOU PRY THEM OUT OF MY COLD, DEAD HANDS.

Days like today remind me of a wonderful quote and it will be my only free advise to the short sellers reading these forums...

"Victory has defeated you"

 

[bdy0627]

I've been a Tesla owner since 2013, and have bought 3 so far, but Elon is now on my hit list. My investment strategies for the last 5 years have been based on the information that he has given us (I listen to ever earnings call and read every earnings report). I understand that manufacturing is hard, but I expect the CEO to have a freaking clue about the ramp and the challenges they face. The fact that he has been more wrong that I thought humanly possible, has now cost me an incredible amount of money. I will get maybe half of it back if the stock recovers in the next 6 months, but I have no choice now but buy back at a huge loss naked Puts that I sold two months ago, because my account has dropped so much that even though I didn't use Margin, I am getting margin calls on my naked Puts (which don't expire for 9 more months). This would NOT have happened if Elon had been even close to accurate. After I weather this storm, I will NEVER, EVER, base any of my investing in TSLA on what Elon has to stay. I use to think people that called Elon a Liar were a bunch of paid trolls. Now I realized that half of them were right. This is a sad day for me because I have really admired the guy. Don't invest based on what Elon says - advice!

That really sucks. Sorry to hear it.

 

[pz1975]

It makes me laugh how these shorts we have never seen before suddenly always show up when the stock is down and claim to have shorted or bought puts when the stock was higher. I call BS. Where were all of you weeks to months ago when the stock was up telling us how much money you were losing/had lost by shorting?

 

[bdy0627]

Hey, thanks to everyone who contributed today. There were a lot of really helpful posts today. With a crappy dip like this it was nice to be able to gain some perspective here. In a month or two, I look forward to the complaints about not adding enough on this dip.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Obviously not enough investors have experienced the latest autopilot update.

 

[MartinAustin]

I'm hopeful TSLA will climb tomorrow... partly via a bounce from today's horrors, but also since the company's product was basically not to blame for the death when the Model X hit the barrier/concrete divider.