TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[HG Wells]

Any of the Iain M. Banks' Culture series books have examples of culture writing ?
IE the red writing on the cup ?

 

[BioSehnsucht]

As I remember, it wasn't the CELL PRODUCTION, it was the PACK PRODUCTION that was the bottleneck.
Or am I wrong here?

And we know that storage vs vehicle use profiles are different, but are we sure that BOTH are using a different chemistry?
They were, but things are changing so fast it is hard to keep up - and no doubt a trade secret too?

Pack production was the problem, so they could have made TE cells instead of idling cell lines.

Yes on different chemistries, NCA for vehicles (heading to 0 on the Cobalt), NMC for TE.

Panasonic said that they are the current bottleneck and that they are now expanding cell production.

In the past, pack production and other things were bottlenecks. During all those times, if they kept the cell lines running full tilt, they could be making TE products. Now the cell production is the bottleneck.

Yes, the chemistry is different, but with some downtime they can switch lines from one chemistry to the other - they've already switched the TE lines to product Model 3 cells since that is now the bottleneck.

As I understand it Panasonic slowed expansion of lines because Model 3 delays lead to underutilization of GF1 (which wouldn't have been a problem if they just switched cell lines to produce TE product to keep utilization up). While none of us here can likely say with certainty, it seems plausible that the current Panasonic cell line expansion that is occurring / scheduled to occur by end of year would have happened sooner (and thus there would have been less or maybe no impact on Model 3 from cell shortages) if Tesla had kept buying cells from Panasonic. Switching lines to TE and buying those cells would have accomplished the job.

Instead, cell lines were idle some of the time, but Tesla was still going to be paying for that equipment. They could have sold TE products during those slow Model 3 times instead...

 

[Fact Checking]

Instead, cell lines were idle some of the time, but Tesla was still going to be paying for that equipment. They could have sold TE products during those slow Model 3 times instead..

All pack assembly lines went as fast as possible, they even converted a TE line to assemble battery packs temporarily.

So while there was unutilized cell supply, there was no TE capacity. I wrote a long list of reasons in a previous reply why the Model 3 ramp-up had absolute priority.

 

[KarenRei]

• Your previous argument was mostly about tsunami risk from the Ryuku Trench, but this comment of yours doesn't reply to the tsunami arguments I made: do you accept that the islands are barriers against tsunami waves from the Ryuku Trench?
• River floods should mostly flow to the low lying green areas in the map above - which are farther away from the Gigafactory. The Gigafactory is also far away from both the Yangtze and Quiantang rivers.
• Sea floods and typhoons are a risk, and I suppose the Gigafactory will have flood protection, should the sea walls fail, and it might also be built on elevated ground to avoid ground water problems.

My original post was about a wide form of natural disasters. Sorry if I missed replying about the islands (Daishan county). The answer to that is: small scattered islands (note: not all paths from the trench go through them) are a hindrance but not a barrier; tsunamis flow around them.

You can see what happened to the waves with the 2011 Touhoku Earthquake here. The waves from that earthquake were already quite attenuated before they even got into the East China Sea (quite a bit of refraction / reflection required to go all the way from that earthquake's epicentre on the far side of Japan), but you can see that the waves that enter the East China Sea flow around Daishan and into Shanghai. A closer view of how tsunamis steer around small islands can be seen here.

Yes, there is attenuation. Heck, with an earthquake in the Ryukyu trench there's attenuation from the Ryukyu islands themselves. But given that the last catatrophic tsunami in the Ryukyu trench had waves of 30 meters high on the near side of Ishigaki-jima, that's hardly much of a consolation.

(I will freely admit that of the various flooding hazards in Shanghai, tsunamis are the least likely, given how vulnerable Shanghai is from both rain and typhoons. But they're not discountable; the Ryushu trench has created some serious monster tsunamis in the past)

As for other issues, the areas at most for flooding depend heavily on the type of flood incident. It's not correct that the areas that are lowest on the map are the most likely to flood. Storm surges from typhoons pose the greatest threat to areas near the sea and waterways connected to the sea. Flood-cresting or failing canals pose the greatest threats to the polders next those particular canals. Etc. Also, 3m is not particularly high regardless.

I'm sure Tesla will do its best to ameliorate flooding risks as best as it can, but it doesn't control all the cards. It's an island in the middle of a much broader flood defense network, and its fate depends on what that network as a whole does; they can't build a whole Gigafactory on stilts. And their own private transportation network to get feedstocks in, vehicles out, and maintain employee transit networks and public utilities.

All of this mind you is really dancing around the broader issue: Shanghai was ranked in an insurance study the 8th most dangerous city in the world with respect to natural disasters. That should tell you all you need to know.

 

[Dwdnjck]

Being positive in life/putting out positive doesn’t create an echo chamber. It simply creates a positive life loop, which has infinite advantages. Not going to go into the whole psychology of it because wrong forum.

Simply, there’s enough negativity in life, including on the Internet, I feel no need to add to it, especially when supporting such a trying and arduous endeavor as Tesla and Elon Musk have embarked on, so keep it to myself.

FYI, fair criticism not equal to negativity. Problem tends to be that few know how to deliver fair criticism in a non-negative, dramatic, et al way.

‘She’ is being dramatic and perpetuating an incorrect (and meant to be negative) line of thinking.

Let me phrase it in a non-dramatic, neutral manner;

Tesla issued 70kish new shares for Elon to buy for 20m. This means Elon is paying Tesla’s SEC fine and shareholders get diluted by 1 cent/share (or whatever the actual dilution amount is).

See how that worked? Statements of fact without the need to blow it out of proportion or go on some rant about how nobody on the board stands up to Elon, blah, blah, blah.

If you want to add fair? criticism....

As a shareholder I believe I should have been asked if I was okay with that/given the opportunity to vote against, yadda, yadda, yadda or some such etc., etc.,

Plus it gave Tesla that cap raise that the shorts say was so desperately needed.

 

[Fact Checking]

Any of the Iain M. Banks' Culture series books have examples of culture writing ?
IE the red writing on the cup ?

Yes, it's the Marain Alphabet:

The image:

These mugs are only issued to Special Circumstances agents.

The fragment decodes to: "ELON M...", but unfortunately we don't have the rest of the text, so we'll probably never know what it says!!

Edit: the last fragment of a letter might be "$"? A hint perhaps?

 

[MP3Mike]

Early Model 3s were too stiff. Tesla switched to softer springs in production sometime in Spring 2018, and offered free replacements to all existing owners. Munro did their teardown on an early Model 3 with stiff springs.

Actually the change was made in December 2017.

 

[KarenRei]

Maybe they’ll just mic drop the earnings report whenever it’s ready. With a statement saying there won’t be a earnings call this quarter because they have yet to develop the muzzling (enhanced controls) of the CEO as per the settlement with the Shortseller Enrichment Commision.

Lol, I would just die if he did a literal mic drop after announcing profitability in front of the press.

The funny thing is, a stunt like that would draw a huge amount of media publicity to the fact that Tesla was profitable... Come on, you can just picture it. He steps out, reporters gathered around to hear the announcement.

Elon: "Good evening." (Pulls out pre-prepared statement and reads it off) "As of the third quarter of 2018, and hereforth barring a force majeure event, Tesla can confirm that it is, and will continue to be, a net-profitable company."

Musk walks off stage. The Muse song (Victorious) that he previously used when detailing the (then-derided as implausible) plan for the Falcon 9 comes on:

Rise up and take the power back
It's time the fat cats had a heart attack
You know that their time's coming to an end
We have to unify and watch our flag ascend

They will not force us!
They will stop degrading us!
They will not control us!
We will be victorious!

Bonus points if there's pyrotechnics and a light display in the background

 

[winfield100]

Elon just tweeted this:

"Special Circumstances" is a secret service type organization in Iain M. Banks' Culture series.

In the background there's a globe of Mars.

Mars is red, the mug is black - like profits?

eeLohn m ?th? (maybe the ?letters?)
perhaps "We don't want to hurt you, but we will if we have to" (abbreviation)
(heh heh)

 

[Krugerrand]

I hope he is polite & gracious to everyone at the Q3 call. The only FU should be a giant visual representation of Tesla’s positive cash flow in Q3– going from zero to whatever the final number is over the course of an hour. No verbal sparring, no told-you-so, just an unmistakable demonstration of letting the facts speak for themselves.

So, Elon won’t be on call then? Boring.

 

[Fact Checking]

I hope he is polite & gracious to everyone at the Q3 call. The only FU should be a giant visual representation of Tesla’s positive cash flow in Q3– going from zero to whatever the final number is over the course of an hour. No verbal sparring, no told-you-so, just an unmistakable demonstration of letting the facts speak for themselves.

The only problem with that is that quarterly earnings calls are conference phone calls, with no visuals.

So it would be a giant visual representation and FU that only Elon would see and understand.

Confusion secured!

 

[sundaymorning]

eeLohn m ?th? (maybe the ?letters?)
perhaps "We don't want to hurt you, but we will if we have to" (abbreviation)
(heh heh)

View attachment 344790

Run for the hills, he’s taking the company “private” again!!!!!!

Ok, maybe he’s not. Let’s all calm down.

 

[Krugerrand]

And who’s been screaming at the top of their lungs to stop the tweets? [Raises hand] Yes, Tesla should have had the controls in place.

Another sign that the investor base has become way too conforming: the same investors who are making the independent chair deal to be a positive outcome today... voted against it in June!!

For the record;

A) didn’t scream for him to stop tweeting (he can tweet to his heart’s content; I’ll take the good with the bad)
B) think the new chair and independent is BS
C) obviously voted against it in June and I’d vote against it today, tomorrow, next week, next month, next year and every subsequent year until I hit the grave

 

[EVNow]

Just ask Mark Cuban

Depends on what kind of settlement deal Cuban was getting and what the suit was doing to his company's SP.

Unlike the popular opinion - not all lawyers are vampires - and may advice based on the circumstances.

As a matter of fact, most lawyers prefer to settle, BTW.

 

[MP3Mike]

For the record;

A) didn’t scream for him to stop tweeting (he can tweet to his heart’s content; I’ll take the good with the bad)
B) think the new chair and independent is BS
C) obviously voted against it in June and I’d vote against it today, tomorrow, next week, next month, next year and every subsequent year until I hit the grave

Will the new board members have to be approved by the shareholders? If so what happens if they refuse to approve any?

 

[Krugerrand]

Will the new board members have to be approved by the shareholders? If so what happens if they refuse to approve any?

I literally shutdown on that topic (because rage) so don’t remember what others dug up on that, but it was explained here. Maybe someone who remembers will answer for you.

 

[brian45011]

Depends on what kind of settlement deal Cuban was getting and what the suit was doing to his company's SP.

Unlike the popular opinion - not all lawyers are vampires - and may advice based on the circumstances.

As a matter of fact, most lawyers prefer to settle, BTW.

Advise? Anyone who has been involved in litigation of any kind has an appreciation of the psychic stress (let alone of the financial drain) of not compromising in settlement.

 

[Sudre]

Can the shareholders submit and vote on an annotation that states we do not approve of how the SEC handled the situation and feel the SEC caused more harm to Tesla than anything Elon did?

 

[AZRI11]

So AFAICS the article came out at around 8:43am, shortly after market open, but 5 minutes after the NASDAQ was already in a -1% drop and TSLA was already down along standard correlation.

Speculation: according to the timestamps Linette Lopez wrote the article at around 1:03am but delayed publication. Once she saw that NASDAQ was dropping and TSLA was dropping along it, she released it to either magnify the drop, or to create an impression that this negative news is the 'reason' for the drop.

So far today's TSLA price action is within historic volatility ranges on a NASDAQ down-day and is closely following NASDAQ price action.

Do you have different timestamps perhaps?

She wants that market mover bonus.

 

[jhm]

He has played/joked/been completely based outside of the reality with the 3 to 6 months thing before. There is now way of knowing how serious this post is. Especially when it is so laughable that he pretends not knowing about the gaps in his service coverings.

Levity is a crime?