TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[AlexS]

I did something similar— selling above 360, buying below 300, buying hard around 250. Was nowhere close to optimal— I missed tops and bottoms by quite a bit— but it worked out well overall. People who tried the same strategy in 2013 got killed. No way to know in advance which approach is better at any given time.

You had a chance in 2013 to buy at 33, sell at 39 and buy at 34 before it went up

 

[Boomer19]

Indeed Tesla is a public traded company governed by existing rules and regulations, controlled by a board of directors voted and appointed by the biggest shareholders. Unless you performed control-share acquisition you opinion is just an opinion of a bystander.
As "everybody knows", and as Mark Cuban so eloquently explained the settling with SEC is useful even if you know you are right. Civil trials are buggy in US, SEC has no proper legislation brackets, and the whole system is just one big mess. So no, the settling with SEC provide no "mea culpa", it is even written in the text of it. Tesla's fine would do that on the other hand. And how are you going to fine Musk? Take his salary? LOL.

Tesla needs time and appropriate financial coverage. They don't need "bulls"- "bulls" brought 2017 and made mess from 2016.
Musk wants long investors who share his vision about what this blue ball needs.
Tesla is not a financial company, it was not established in order to quickly enrich it's investors, and it is not Tesla's duty or obligation to follow any arbitrary non clear defined rules of "CEO behavior", "controls" etc. You are always free to try to take company over (you can't because Musk keeps control package, in more ways apparently), or just leave.

To the normal members:
I feel very stupid I didn't see the obvious reason of this "disturbance of force" which manifested in April-September events. The reason which knocked Musk down for a good while.
While it is quite obvious if to look close enough.
As all of you know Musk got very special pay-package in the middle of march, which tied him to Tesla for another 10 years. Instead of eating fast-"food" you are so conveniently fed by MM, think a bit, and ask/ answer few obvious questions.
why did he get this package, who introduced it and why. Probably it is useful to refer to Musk plans he was voicing in 2016, 2017 but I don't think it is even necessary. It is just so obvious if to think strait for a second.

sorry i’m not following the last part, could you elaborate? much appreciated
thx

 

[Brando]

The shorts over at SA but also Electrek are overjoyed by the fact that the I-Pace outsold Model S and X in Norway by 40% during the first half of this month. A big nail in the coffin.

What they don’t say is that Tesla deliveries always crater after the end of a quarter (because of the way Tesla geograpically spreads its deliveries) but also that there is two years of pent-up demand for the I-Pace in Norway which is finally being released with Jaguar sending almost all the cars Magna produced over the last few months - I heard 1000 cars - to Norway and The Netherlands.

I wonder what happens after all reservations have been honoured. Tesla managed to keep a steady stream of orders going in Norway for many years. Let’s see how the I-Pace holds up.

from eletrek.co :
Tesla delivered about 2,300 cars in the country [Norway] during the third quarter and over 2,000 of them were delivered in the last month.

Compared to other countries, the total number of new cars sold in Norway is small at around 10,000 per month. Of that number, 4,810 were electrics. Tesla topped the sales charts with the Model X leading the way at 1,234 cars registered and the Model S close behind at 782 sold. The Nissan LEAF also finished the month well with 1,071 sold. 458 BMW i3 sedans found new homes, as did 292 Hyundai Ioniqs and 123 Renault Zoes.

Model X is the most popular of Tesla’s electric cars, and accounted for 1,234 filings in September 2018. Tesla Model S accounted for 782 registrations. Also this year’s most sold electric car, Nissan Leaf, did well with 1,071 registrations, while the otherwise so very popular e-Golf and the BMW i3 were further down on the list.

Brando doesn't see that ANY i-Paces have been delivered to Norway.

PS- Norway reportedly has over 30,000 electric vehicle pre-orders, Tesla Model 3 and Audi e-tron to make huge impact

 

[KarenRei]

Here's the topographic map:

The Shanghai Gigafactory is in one of the highest elevation locations of the city, at least 4-5m high. So it should be protected from river flood and most historic tsunamis in the area: the risk of 2m+ waves reaching Shanghai appears to be lower than 10%, per century.

Also, most tsunamis would come from the east, from which direction the Gigafactory is more than 10 km inland. Even major tsunamis don't reach that far inland. From the south it's about 3 km inland, protected by a 5m+ elevated buffer zone.

There's also big islands (10 km wide) shielding the southern part of the city.

So I don't think the tsunami risk is significant, given the topology.

From the paper that is the source of that image:

"Occupying the coastal part of the Yangtze River alluvial plain, Shanghai is topographically flat, with
exception of some hills to its west. Altitude is mainly about 3–5 m above the sea level. However, the
average tidal amplitude of the estuary system ranges from 2.4 to 4.6 m [39] and typhoons can essentially
enhance the tide level. On 18 August 1997, the highest tide record of 5.99 m occurred in Shanghai.
The combination of the flat alluvial plain, the subtropical monsoon climate, the tidal amplitude,
typhoons, and upstream discharges causes serious flood risk to Shanghai and threats to its sustainable
development [36,37]. The situation is exacerbated by land subsidence and sea level rising [39,40].
Shanghai has constructed massive seawalls and river levees since 1950 to reduce flood risk caused by
over-flowing of rivers and seawaters. It has built pumping stations and dredged river-based agricultural
drainage system to prevent agricultural waterlogging. Meanwhile, it has also upgraded the urban
drainage system to prevent urban waterlogging by dredging river-based drainage systems, installing
underground pipes, and building pumping stations"

The red you're looking at is artificially elevated terrain incl. part of the drainage system, to hold back the sea and drain the city (which is why it doesn't follow the natural trend of elevation decline the closer you get to the ocean). You see the same thing in New Orleans. The city itself, like New Orleans, is subsiding while sea levels rise.

Let's replace your map with a larger one from the source:

Note all the straight red lines? Those are rivers / canals - high enough up that they can pump water into them so that it can then flow into the sea. That's not what you build on. Here's where GF3 is:

3 meters above sea level. Right next to a canal. Note the huge network of canals in the area to try to keep it from flooding:

If you see the area around you laced with canals like that... you're in a serious flood zone. Your safety is entirely reliant on how good the flood defenses around you are.

China's history with flood defenses are... let's say "subpar" at best.

BTW, another graphs for you from that paper whose topo image you used. Floods are on the rise:

"Second, annual flooding and the monthly floods in the three most flood-prone months, June–August, increased significantly over 1949–2009. Third, urban waterlogging had a strong increasing trend, whereas overbank flood had a decreasing trend and agricultural waterlogging had a slightly increasing trend. These findings strongly suggested that Shanghai should pay attention to the changes in flood frequencies and particularly should shift its countermeasures for efficiently reducing the occurrence of urban waterlogging. Future studies could help to investigate the driving factors for the changes in Shanghai’s floods"

 

[SpaceCash]

From the paper that is the source of that image:

"Occupying the coastal part of the Yangtze River alluvial plain, Shanghai is topographically flat, with
exception of some hills to its west. Altitude is mainly about 3–5 m above the sea level. However, the
average tidal amplitude of the estuary system ranges from 2.4 to 4.6 m [39] and typhoons can essentially
enhance the tide level. On 18 August 1997, the highest tide record of 5.99 m occurred in Shanghai.
The combination of the flat alluvial plain, the subtropical monsoon climate, the tidal amplitude,
typhoons, and upstream discharges causes serious flood risk to Shanghai and threats to its sustainable
development [36,37]. The situation is exacerbated by land subsidence and sea level rising [39,40].
Shanghai has constructed massive seawalls and river levees since 1950 to reduce flood risk caused by
over-flowing of rivers and seawaters. It has built pumping stations and dredged river-based agricultural
drainage system to prevent agricultural waterlogging. Meanwhile, it has also upgraded the urban
drainage system to prevent urban waterlogging by dredging river-based drainage systems, installing
underground pipes, and building pumping stations"

The red you're looking at is artificially elevated terrain incl. part of the drainage system, to hold back the sea and drain the city (which is why it doesn't follow the natural trend of elevation decline the closer you get to the ocean). You see the same thing in New Orleans. The city itself, like New Orleans, is subsiding while sea levels rise.

Let's replace your map with a larger one from the source:

View attachment 344743

Note all the straight red lines? Those are rivers / canals - high enough up that they can pump water into them so that it can then flow into the sea. That's not what you build on. Here's where GF3 is:

View attachment 344754

3 meters above sea level. Right next to a canal. Note the huge network of canals in the area to try to keep it from flooding:

View attachment 344755

If you see the area around you laced with canals like that... you're in a serious flood zone. Your safety is entirely reliant on how good the flood defenses around you are.

China's history with flood defenses are... let's say "subpar" at best.

BTW, another graphs for you from that paper whose topo image you used. Floods are on the rise:

View attachment 344756

"Second, annual flooding and the monthly floods in the three most flood-prone months, June–August, increased significantly over 1949–2009. Third, urban waterlogging had a strong increasing trend, whereas overbank flood had a decreasing trend and agricultural waterlogging had a slightly increasing trend. These findings strongly suggested that Shanghai should pay attention to the changes in flood frequencies and particularly should shift its countermeasures for efficiently reducing the occurrence of urban waterlogging. Future studies could help to investigate the driving factors for the changes in Shanghai’s floods"

Karen.
The CEO of Tesla plans to move to, and live on, Mars.
I think he might have taken these types of environmental factors into consideration.

 

[Brando]

Pack production was the problem, so they could have made TE cells instead of idling cell lines.

Yes on different chemistries, NCA for vehicles (heading to 0 on the Cobalt), NMC for TE.

How are the packs made for storage? I assume the same automation equipment.
IF/when doing them by hand [manually] I suspect the vehicle gets priority as as higher sales dollars per batteries used?
(just a guess as I have no data/info to know what the calculations might be)

 

[KarenRei]

I keep looking for Market Action related stuff but I've barely seen any. I find myself coming here less and less and less. Most of this looks like General Discussion to me.

I sympathize, but at the same time... what do you expect to see here? The markets are closed. Everything that could be said about any immediate activity has been said. So naturally conversation drifts - competition, autonomy, GF3, competition, articles about Tesla in the news, rehashing the now-settled SEC case, etc.

I agree if any topic gets to be taking over the thread it should be moved, but right now I see about five different topics going on here. And all seem at least fairly related to Tesla's longer-term market strategy. That said, while I personally can't relocate any topic, if there were any specific topic that was bothering you, I'd second your request to relocate it - even if it were one that I was involved in.

 

[AWDtsla]

As mentioned by others over the last few days, the lack of an earnings date yet seems rather curious.

What are the odds Musk wants to surprise the market with a positive earnings announcement at short notice - which wouldn’t give the shorts time to position themselves properly and/or have the FUD articles ready to drop?

As I understand it (and I could be wrong) a company is not required to give advance notice when releasing results?

Last year was announced on 10/19. What's curious?

Tesla Announces Date for Third Quarter 2017 Financial Results and Webcast | Tesla, Inc.

 

[mongo]

How are the packs made for storage? I assume the same automation equipment.
IF/when doing them by hand [manually] I suspect the vehicle gets priority as as higher sales dollars per batteries used?
(just a guess as I have no data/info to know what the calculations might be)

Power pack and power wall are completely different form factor to the Model 3 packs made at GF1. Power loading/ thermal are also different.

 

[Brando]

side note: I see Fremont, CA claims 56' [~17m] above sea level. Not sure the GigaFactory is actually that high, but could be. The Freeway doesn't seem that nearly that high. I lived there, but growing up in the Rocky Mountains I hardly notice 50' hills.

 

[Brando]

Power pack and power wall are completely different form factor to the Model 3 packs made at GF1. Power loading/ thermal are also different.

So you don't think the automation equipment is extremely similar? just different settings for example? or you think they are hand made? aren't we just both guessing here - anyway you think what you like. I still think the packs were the bottleneck and not the cells. I'm not even sure if BOTH 2170 and 18650 are made in Nevada.
And I'm not sure which format is used for storage either. Perhaps you know?

 

[bhzmark]

there is a differerence between losing money and simply not gaining money.

Verbally and psychologically there is a difference. Loss aversion - Wikipedia

but not economically.

 

[dqd88]

I keep looking for Market Action related stuff but I've barely seen any. I find myself coming here less and less and less. Most of this looks like General Discussion to me.

Today was not typical. Today this thread was particularly occupied with discussion on
* Elon buying $20M in new shares
* The susceptibility of the Shanghai plant to natural disaster

This thread seems to be where the action is. I admit, I find myself coming this thread 90% of the time.

This thread is like a thread of threads, all threaded together.

 

[Fact Checking]

Let's replace your map with a larger one from the source:

• Your previous argument was mostly about tsunami risk from the Ryuku Trench, but this comment of yours doesn't reply to the tsunami arguments I made: do you accept that the islands are barriers against tsunami waves from the Ryuku Trench?
• River floods should mostly flow to the low lying green areas in the map above - which are farther away from the Gigafactory. The Gigafactory is also far away from both the Yangtze and Quiantang rivers.
• Sea floods and typhoons are a risk, and I suppose the Gigafactory will have flood protection, should the sea walls fail, and it might also be built on elevated ground to avoid ground water problems.

 

[brian45011]

In that case, why is Tesla issuing shares to Elon, which dilutes existing shareholders, instead of fining him for the second $20 million?

With this arrangement, Tesla will show $20m higher than otherwise SG&A and higher share count, both of which hurt investors... makes no sense.

The dilution is immaterial. Elon has vested options for 4,747,411 shares with a strike price of $31.17/share from the 2012 CEO incentive award.

 

[Fact Checking]

Could you please provide support/link for “Elon would have won the lawsuit was an opinion also voiced by a former SEC lead counsel?” - thanks in advance.

Yeah, Thomas Gorman, former senior counsel to the SEC, has read the complaint and was not convinced the SEC has a case:

'This is the beginning of the road' for SEC vs. Elon Musk, says former SEC counsel

There's a fair amount of hand-wringing before they let him talk though, but then he mostly slaps down the counterarguments.

 

[Fact Checking]

As I understand it (and I could be wrong) a company is not required to give advance notice when releasing results?

In the U.S. setting an earnings announcement date is voluntary: ~40% of the listed firms never announce a date, about ~15% always announce, ~45% do it irregularly.

Last year the Nov 1 earnings report date was announced on Oct 19 - two weeks prior.

So there's still time, and Tesla is not required to set a date in any case.

 

[oneday]

As mentioned by others over the last few days, the lack of an earnings date yet seems rather curious.

What are the odds Musk wants to surprise the market with a positive earnings announcement at short notice - which wouldn’t give the shorts time to position themselves properly and/or have the FUD articles ready to drop?

As I understand it (and I could be wrong) a company is not required to give advance notice when releasing results?

Maybe they’ll just mic drop the earnings report whenever it’s ready. With a statement saying there won’t be a earnings call this quarter because they have yet to develop the muzzling (enhanced controls) of the CEO as per the settlement with the Shortseller Enrichment Commision.

 

[Fact Checking]

Elon just tweeted this:

"Special Circumstances" is a secret service type organization in Iain M. Banks' Culture series.

In the background there's a globe of Mars.

Mars is red, the mug is black - like profits?

 

[SpaceCash]

Elon just tweeted this:

"Special Circumstances" is a secret service type organization in Iain M. Banks' Culture series.

In the background there's a globe of Mars.

Mars is red, the mug is black - like profits?

That's too cryptic even for me. And I KEEP that tinfoil on me at all times...