TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[lklundin]

Joule i.e. Watt/second

Sadly, I am not able to write even the simplest of explanations without a typo. The Joule is naturally Watt times second.

Apologies for increasing rather than reducing the confusion.

(If an admin is able and willing to fix the typo in the original post, then please feel free to do so).

 

[aubreymcfato]

Again, it's your opinion based on past experience and not unlikely. This is not a fact until confirmed by Tesla or we reach 2020 without mass production.

You try to put the spot on negative facts to change the sentiment. That's within the rules of this forum. But framing your opinion as a fact it's against the rules of this forum, in my opinion, and I expect the administrators to act.

Also, I'm not an expert, but building a *car* is 2-3 orders of magnitude more complex than building high-engineered glass tiles. And they already had solar cells manufactured by Panasonic.
I'm quite disappointed in Tesla/Elon on how they managed the solar roof delays (radio silence for months, still going: in general, Tesla Solar is late), but we don't know much about the reasons of the delay.
Surely, the delay is related to the complexity of the product, but probably much of it is due to the laser-like focus of Elon/engineers/capital on Model 3 manufacturing.

 

[FirebirdAlpha]

And solar roofs are now being installed to customers. After reaching the first 1000 model 3s it took about a year to produce 80k.

According to Reuters and public utility information, only 12 people in all of California have the Solar Roof.

According to Tesla, the majority of CapEx spending in 2018 is to support the Model 3 (Q1 call, Deepak).

So if they're "ramping the Solar Roof," where is the capital coming from, and where are the deliveries?

Exclusive: Tesla to close a dozen solar facilities in nine states -...

 

[Vitold]

Yes, we do know it's years away.

Mass producing something, especially something new, takes a long time figure out. It takes massive capital expenditures. It takes specialized factories. It takes working with a lot of suppliers.

Above all, it takes time.

Look at the Model 3. It took 2 years from the announcement and prototype demo to reach 1000 cars per week.

It took two weeks to setup ga4 to assemble over 2k vehicles a week.

 

[Pras]

According to Reuters and public utility information, only 12 people in all of California have the Solar Roof.

According to Tesla, the majority of CapEx spending in 2018 is to support the Model 3 (Q1 call, Deepak).

So if they're "ramping the Solar Roof," where is the capital coming from, and where are the deliveries?

Exclusive: Tesla to close a dozen solar facilities in nine states -...

If I recall right, solar city had an existing book value of the already installed solar in north of $2b with a discounting rate of 8% (correct me if my recollection is wrong). With that Tesla is in no rush to expand the facility using aggressive marketing. It should deploy the capital in more immediate and higher immediate return area (aka model 3 and next model Y).

 

[LordAstinus]

According to Reuters and public utility information, only 12 people in all of California have the Solar Roof.

-> Fact

According to Tesla, the majority of CapEx spending in 2018 is to support the Model 3 (Q1 call, Deepak).

-> Fact

So if they're "ramping the Solar Roof," where is the capital coming from, and where are the deliveries?

-> Opinion, not faked as fact this time, so I instead of reporting it, I'm going to answer this time:

If what's preventing them from mass production is capital, it could be mass producing by 2019Q1 or 2019Q2.
If what's preventing them from mass production is a technical problem, depending on the nature of the problem, it could be years' away from mass producing or not. You don't know, I don't know. Opinion, not fact.

Exclusive: Tesla to close a dozen solar facilities in nine states -...

-> Fact

 

[Yggdrasill]

According to Reuters and public utility information, only 12 people in all of California have the Solar Roof.

According to Tesla, the majority of CapEx spending in 2018 is to support the Model 3 (Q1 call, Deepak).

So if they're "ramping the Solar Roof," where is the capital coming from, and where are the deliveries?

Exclusive: Tesla to close a dozen solar facilities in nine states -...

Capex has been spent since the solar roof was unveiled in october 2016. If I would guess, most of the larger machinery for initial production capacity was probably installed Q4 2017 or Q1 2018.

But the solar roof project is in all likelihood far less capex-intensive than the Model 3 program, so that most capex would be going towards Model 3 in 2018, even if they ramped solar roof really rapidly in 2018.

 

[replicant]

Elon is Tesla and Tesla is Elon.

Poor JB...

 

[Boomer19]

Also, seriously curious:

- Why did Elon suddenly unfollow Electrek on Twitter today?

- Why is SolarCity's Twitter account set to protected?

umm. who cares?

and no, we don’t think it would be good for tesla to go through a bankruptcy like gm did. how about you? maybe you should go through a bankruptcy. do you think that would be good? great idea. we should all try int.
stop trying to spread your nonsense propaganda

 

[FirebirdAlpha]

If what's preventing them from mass production is capital, it could be mass producing by 2019Q1 or 2019Q2.

I would be stunned that the same company that said "20,000 Model 3s by December 2017" in July wouldn't say "1000 solar roofs in 1st half 2019" in August.

I mean... they're promising 10,000 Model 3s/week in 2019. Why haven't they given a number for solar roof production?

You're giving a pretty generous interpretation of Tesla's silence on this matter given that they've been more than willing to set aggressive goals and give stretch guidance.

Using your model:
- Fact: Tesla gave guidance for 5k/week Model 3s by the end of 2017 during the Q1 2017 call.
- Fact: Tesla gave guidance for 10k/week Model 3s in 2019 during the Q1 and Q2 2018 calls.
- Fact: Tesla has not given specific guidance for Solar Roof mass production targets.
- Fact: The majority of 2018 CapEx is for the model 3 (Deepak on Q1 call)
- Fact: Solar Roof was not mentioned in either the Q1 or Q2 investor letters.

Opinion: Tesla is still years away from mass producing the solar roof.

 

[Yggdrasill]

- Why did Elon suddenly unfollow Electrek on Twitter today?

I seem to recall Electrek getting into trouble with Tesla when they helped leak Model S/X facelift interior. But I can't quite remember the details.

 

[LordAstinus]

You're giving a pretty generous interpretation of Tesla's silence on this matter given that they've been more than willing to set aggressive goals and give stretch guidance.

Until confirmed or you present proof, you can only infer, guess or change your degree of belief on something being a fact, but you cannot state it as factual.

You're assuming that they haven't learnt anything or become more conservative. They may make the same mistakes as in the past, or not. But I contemplate both scenarios as possible. Do you?

 

[X Fan]

There are so many negative stories about Tesla on Google news this morning that it makes my head spin.

Also, one of the women on the Reuters team has gone NYT with followup negative tweets.

It's just sad how the American Press is piling on.....

 

[Drax7]

Buffet owns much of the western region utilities, the rail, as well as has significant holding around natural gas equipment, etc.

Buffett is in direct competition with Tesla Energy.

He also could see a rapidly increasing dent into his rail holdings happening over the next decade due to Tesla semi and other electric trucks platooning as well as other container advantages by going electric.

He got involved in attacking roof top solar in Nevada, of which he had a mutual common interest with the Kochs, who have also attacked roof top solar in many places around the country, just look at the history in Arizona for example.

I get that he is a legendary investor to many, but never forget that he doesn’t want anyone messing with his moats. He plays dirty behind the camera and the jolly persona. He isn’t a fan of competition in these areas and he literally says this every time he talks about moats and barriers to entry as good things.

Elon is about winning through innovation. Buffet is about winning by monopolization and regulating out completion.

He loves Tesla creating demand for electricity on his centralized grid... he just doesn’t like having electricity being produced and stored by distributed energy sources such as you and your roof. He surely doesn’t like the possibility of superchargers becoming self sufficient in charging the Tesla fleet either.

Ask the Vegas casinos about their attempts to leave NV Energy to either utiltize their own roof top solar or shop around for better rates...

Buffett also owns several large car dealerships. Wonder how he feels about direct sales.

 

[mongo]

If what's preventing them from mass production is capital, it could be mass producing by 2019Q1 or 2019Q2.
If what's preventing them from mass production is a technical problem, depending on the nature of the problem, it could be years' away from mass producing or not. You don't know, I don't know. Opinion, not fact.

Tesla is preforming extensive validation on the roof tiles including getting feedback from fire/ emergency crews. They do not want to install lifetime guaranteed roofs, then have to redo them due to some interface/ connection/ materials issue.

(following not directed at you @LordAstinus )
In summary:
If Tesla gets a product out quickly then has teething issues, that's bad.
If Tesla takes their time validating a product before general release, that's bad.
Basically any Tesla action = bad.

Premarket is not looking so bad...

 

[LordAstinus]

Premarket is not looking so bad...

= bad

 

[Johan]

What is happening to the investor's forum? I'm all for this not being an echo chamber for bulls, but there is some serious divide and conquer tactics going on. 1) We are being flooded with FUD, which is to most of us neither giving rise to Fear, Uncertainty or Doubt but mostly irritation and frustration. 2) Discussions about AI chips, energy consumption, possible pedofiles etc. etc. is making the noise to signal ratio very high. Poster that I have on ignore are obviously posting one thing after another provoking responses, but just go on to post another and another thing, in other words this is a dishonest form of conversation which is in fact not a real conversation but trolling. In this microcosmos of TMC investors section we're witnessing exactly the same dynamics play out that has been playing out over the last few years globally: dishonest actors are disrupting civil discourse with ulterior motives of their own. Let's try not to get drawn in to this cesspool.

 

[loky]

I would be stunned that the same company that said "20,000 Model 3s by December 2017" in July wouldn't say "1000 solar roofs in 1st half 2019" in August.

I mean... they're promising 10,000 Model 3s/week in 2019. Why haven't they given a number for solar roof production?
Opinion: Tesla is still years away from mass producing the solar roof.

Let me explain. All Model 3 production lines at this moment can run 20%+ faster then production of battery cells, which is the main constraint for Tesla and all other car manufacturers trying to produce EVs. For Solar Business Tesla needs PowerWalls , PowerPacks and solar tiles and I expect fast grow in Q1 and Q2, as soon as battery cell production overtake Model 3 production.
Please mod, move this post to Tesla Energy thread.

 

[Fact Checking]

Quick before the opening bell market sentiment report:

• NASDAQ futures are mostly flat, trending down: after yesterday's all-time-highs early in the session there was a sharp selloff of about -1%, which set the sentiment for the Asian and European sessions: cautious correction back up on low volume, bounce no 50% support of yesterday's range, and before open the price is close to the lower part of yesterday's range.
  
• Dow futures are similarly flat, trending down: yesterday's consolidation was -0.6% (less than NASDAQ), but futures had similar price action in Asian and European trading.
• The dollar strengthened a bit in the EU session, which is sometimes a leading indicator for a Dow/NASDAQ drop in the U.S. session.
  
• TSLA pre-market price action is mostly flat too so far, on minimal volume - trending down a bit like the macros.
• Today is Friday, which is weekly TSLA options day, which might bring in bigger traders interested in the price reaching (or not reaching) specific strike prices.

So the macro environment is cautious/negative, and there could be more NASDAQ/Dow profit taking today after recent all-time highs, which macro environment is usually a drag on TSLA - but TSLA ignored macro correlations several times this week, so it's hard to tell. Be careful, especially with margin-leveraged positions.

 

[winfield100]

@MODS: can we give folks whom are ignored by, say, 10 folks a __timeout__ as some pages, like 1624, make no sense and clutter up things