TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[neroden]

ROFL. Where on earth did you read that? Please explain.

The only thing I see at this time is the possibility of a lot of investor lawsuits from both shorts and longs alike. Because if this is all just talk, a lot of longs were buying shares in the hopes of a $420 price or higher. If this is not a real deal the stock will tank and they will lose big. Those two words "funding secured" could end up being historical in nature.

We know it's not just talk. The only interesting thing you said is that you thought the Board should have mentioned the going-private talks in the 10-Q. Evidence for this claim?

 

[beachbum77]

According to Ihor, short’s went from 35m yesterday to “just a tad over 34m short” today. And we were down. Is that insignificant? Or does that lead to a conclusion that longs and/or traders were selling at these prices.

If we get short covering at just under a million per day and are still down 9 pts, that doesn’t feel like a short burn is imminent.

FYI - Looking for insight, not making a statement.

It means longs were doing a lot more selling than shorts were buying shares to cover. If buyers had confidence in this move to going private the shares would be around $400 or more. When a buyout attempt fails the shares usually tank for a time at least. So I think some longs see this as a great exit point locking in their long-term gains. I also think shorts see little risk in hanging on. Their potential losses are now capped at $420.

 

[neroden]

Remus, buying a few shares of SpaceX is lightyears away from funding $30-50 billion to take a company like Tesla private. First off, small investors do not qualify to be participants. You need to be an accredited investor. That is why Fidelity set up a special fund.

SpaceX asked for $1 million minimum for a while, and then $10 million minimum (and there was a waiting list), and now you simply can't get them for any price. This is well beyond accredited investor.

 

[beachbum77]

We know it's not just talk. The only interesting thing you said is that you thought the Board should have mentioned the going-private talks in the 10-Q. Evidence for this claim?

It meets the SEC definition of "material". That is partly why the SEC is now officially involved in this matter. The proper release of information in a timely and widespread manner is also a requirement that does not appear to have been met. Tesla has also still not released an 8-K on this news either.

 

[neroden]

According to Ihor, short’s went from 35m yesterday to “just a tad over 34m short” today. And we were down. Is that insignificant? Or does that lead to a conclusion that longs and/or traders were selling at these prices.

If we get short covering at just under a million per day and are still down 9 pts, that doesn’t feel like a short burn is imminent.

FYI - Looking for insight, not making a statement.

Oh, we definitely have some long sellers. This could be simple predetermined limit-order profit-taking; it could be people who actually believe the FUD; it could be algos.

 

[brian45011]

Since I have no reason to believe that Elon Musk's "Funding secured" tweet was insincere, I see such an SEC inquiry as a plus.

I thus expect the regulator to confirm that funding is indeed secured - without having to name anyone - so that whole question should be cleared up, removing some (real or perceived) uncertainty from the market.

It's an inquiry not an investigation. The SEC's policy is to foster full disclosure so market participants can make informed decisions. The inquiry will likely expedite the process of Tesla disclosing meaningful details about the souce(s) of financing and the structure of the private entity replacing the registrant.

 

[neroden]

It meets the SEC definition of "material". That is why the SEC is now officially involved in this matter.

Ah, you're thinking of the rule that all material information must be disclosed in the 10-Q; the 10-Q is signed as of August 3; and the board is saying that they had talks last week, which was before August 3.

Yeah, they might get a penalty for that. I certainly hope an 8-K is released soon.

 

[SO16]

Ah, you're thinking of the rule that all material information must be disclosed in the 10-Q; the 10-Q is signed as of August 3; and the board is saying that they had talks last week, which was before August 3.

When exactly (time) was the 10-Q released and when exactly (date AND time) did the board discuss the matters last week? Without knowing both, we are only guessing.

 

[beachbum77]

Ah, you're thinking of the rule that all material information must be disclosed in the 10-Q; the 10-Q is signed as of August 3; and the board is saying that they had talks last week, which was before August 3.

Yeah, they might get a penalty for that. I certainly hope an 8-K is released soon.

Correct. In between 10-Qs, you are required to file 8-K forms as Tesla does regularly. There should have been one filed simultaneously with Musks tweet which tells me he went rogue on this. That is why trading was halted and a letter to employees was rushed out. The argument the news services follow his Twitter account postings and reported his tweet may not hold water here. That will be for the SEC to decide. In an interview with a former SEC Chairman today he claims Musk is in trouble here. But that is what an investigation will have to determine.

 

[Sudre]

The only thing I see at this time is the possibility of a lot of investor lawsuits from both shorts and longs alike.

Shorts do not own a stake in the company. Do they even get to take part in a lawsuit?

I don't own any shares at $420 so I certainly can't have losses when my stock is bought from me at $420.... unless the price goes significantly higher then the deal won't go thru.

If you are informed that the company will go private at $420 and you decide it's a lie because you are stupid so you sell for less.... your case will be thrown out.

If you are short and you are told the company will be bought out at $420 a share then you decide to double down at $385, you have no case.

Where is that grasping at straw GIF I see o much lately?

Ah... I see it. They disguised it as the ignore button!

 

[Moderatefan]

it could be people who actually believe the FUD

The volume(40% of all shares minus Elon's) seems to suggest this is well beyond 12% retail investors, unless each sells their shares 3 times. Institutions are selling...

 

[beachbum77]

When exactly (time) was the 10-Q released and when exactly (date AND time) did the board discuss the matters last week? Without knowing both, we are only guessing.

The 10-Q was released Monday morning. (I get notified of Tesla reportings to the SEC). So any discussions last week should have been reported in the 10-Q. If meetings occurred prior to the Conference Call they should have been reported there as well. Have can you have a clear and full picture of forward guidance and not discuss plans to take the company private? There is no way this all happened in one week since the call. You cannot arrange a history-making $71.3 billion buyout in that time.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

In an interview with a former SEC Chairman today he claims Musk is in trouble here

IF Musk was lying.

 

[beachbum77]

Shorts do not own a stake in the company. Do they even get to take part in a lawsuit?

I don't own any shares at $420 so I certainly can't have losses when my stock is bought from me at $420.... unless the price goes significantly higher then the deal won't go thru.

If you are informed that the company will go private at $420 and you decide it's a lie because you are stupid so you sell for less.... your case will be thrown out.

If you are short and you are told the company will be bought out at $420 a share then you decide to double down at $385, you have no case.

Where is that grasping at straw GIF I see o much lately?

Ah... I see it. They disguised it as the ignore button!

If you do not know the answer to the first line in your post there is no point in discussing the rest of your comments.

 

[jelloslug]

The 10-Q was released Monday morning. (I get notified of Tesla reportings to the SEC). So any discussions last week should have been reported in the 10-Q. If meetings occurred prior to the Conference Call they should have been reported there as well. Have can you have a clear and full picture of forward guidance and not discuss plans to take the company private? There is no way this all happened in one week since the call. You cannot arrange a history-making $71.3 billion buyout in that time.

You have a very poor grasp on what is happening here. Repeating FUD theories from reddit will not get you very far.

 

[oneday]

Every future buyer of Tesla private shares will be vetted by Tesla, just like SpaceX. Shorting won't be possible in any practical sense of the word.

This is not true. SpaceX must comply with ITAR laws. Tesla does not and will not.

 

[kbM3]

Now you are sounding like Musk with his "hater" comments. A realistic valuation of a company does not spell "doom". If Tesla had a realistic price now there would be no one shorting the stock.

The stories of haters and conspiracies are total nonsense and many have been sucked into it. Every company has its "short sellers". They are just people playing the opposite side of the coin who think a stock at a given point in time is overpriced and due for a correction. If Sears suddenly spiked 50% for some news item I'd be there buying puts. Because the underlying picture would probably not have changed.

The fact Tesla remained under $380 today tells me most buyers do not believe the odds of going private are that great.

It meets the SEC definition of "material". That is partly why the SEC is now officially involved in this matter. The proper release of information in a timely and widespread manner is also a requirement that does not appear to have been met. Tesla has also still not released an 8-K on this news either.

The 10-Q was released Monday morning. (I get notified of Tesla reportings to the SEC). So any discussions last week should have been reported in the 10-Q. If meetings occurred prior to the Conference Call they should have been reported there as well. Have can you have a clear and full picture of forward guidance and not discuss plans to take the company private? There is no way this all happened in one week since the call. You cannot arrange a history-making $71.3 billion buyout in that time.

Your posts make me so happy.

You’ve placed your bet and we’ve placed ours. Time will tell who was right.

 

[juanmedina]

If you do not know the answer to the first line in your post there is no point in discussing the rest of your comments.

There is no lawsuit.... So their is no point in discussing the rest of your comments.

 

[oneday]

Actually, he is right. I have been saying this for a long time. Without a profit there is no P/E ratio. Without that it is hard to measure Tesla against other stocks or automakers. Investors are free to believe whatever they want as the true value of Tesla. But faced with hard evidence the stock would likely plummet especially for a company in as bad a financial condition as Tesla. Achieving a 2018 annual profit of $1 per share would give Tesla a P/E ratio of an astronomical 370 at today's closing price. Think about that. To wipe out the losses of the first half would take about $1.5 billion in profits in the next two quarters, which is virtually impossible from here in 8/8/18.

But analysts would use a Q3 profit to extrapolate an annual amount. If Tesla does not achieve a Q3 profit the stock will likely plummet anyway. Talk about being between a rock and a hard place...

You act like no other company has been valued without a P/E ratio. Most every company at some point in their existence had to be valued without a P/E ratio.

 

[hacer]

You guys only stand to lose $13 billion. You'll be fine.

Actually the shorts stand to lose an unlimited amount. I think in the end they will collectively lose ~$117 billion and it won't take any convincing! They are already convinced.