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On today's TMC Podcast, we ask the question "What is the Tesla Cybercab?". Join us on YouTube live at 1PM and participate in the chat.
MassModel3
Member
http://www.teslamotors.com/model3
But you should wait at least a year before you click that link. :wink:
I initially thought 20% shorter, but that would make a very small car. 20% smaller volume makes more sense. I believe the range target is 200 miles? That requires the car be the size of at least a BMW 3 Series. If Tesla wants to get a sedan in the mass market, aiming for the compact or midsize market is where they want to be. Large sedans don't sell very well any more, in the US the entire full size family sedan market is around the size of the market for the Ford Fusion and Tesla with very low production volumes compared to the competition is currently on top of the top luxury sedan market.
The best selling cars in the US are mostly midsize sedans (though the best selling vehicles are pickups). They can't quite get down into the price range of the Camry, Accord, Fusion, and Malibu, but they can position the Model 3 to compete against the luxury compact and midsize sedans which start $10K-$15K more than the family sedans. That's within range of some budgets to squeeze a little more and get into the next tier in the market, especially if the fuel and maintenance cost savings are considered. The BMW 3 Series is a bit smaller than the midsize market. I think the 5 Series fills that niche.
If the general layout is similar to the Model S with the batteries under the floor, I could see a compact sedan with close to the same interior space as a midsize family sedan.
Tesla took a different strategy from other electric cars when they designed the Model S. It was deliberately designs to look like a decent ICE car instead of a toy like a lot of other BEVs. The idea being to draw in people who might not be looking specifically for an electric and/or don't want to make a loud statement to the world they are driving an electric. This is very good, subtle strategy. I suspect the Model 3 is going to have a strategy along the same lines, competing in one of the more crowded segments of the market, or on the fringes of it rather than another niche like the Model S aimed for. There demand for subcompact luxury cars is not that high, but compact and midsize are the sweet spot.
If the reduction from the Model S is in fact 20% less volume, that puts the car right into that compact/midsize range.
The best selling cars in the US are mostly midsize sedans (though the best selling vehicles are pickups). They can't quite get down into the price range of the Camry, Accord, Fusion, and Malibu, but they can position the Model 3 to compete against the luxury compact and midsize sedans which start $10K-$15K more than the family sedans. That's within range of some budgets to squeeze a little more and get into the next tier in the market, especially if the fuel and maintenance cost savings are considered. The BMW 3 Series is a bit smaller than the midsize market. I think the 5 Series fills that niche.
If the general layout is similar to the Model S with the batteries under the floor, I could see a compact sedan with close to the same interior space as a midsize family sedan.
Tesla took a different strategy from other electric cars when they designed the Model S. It was deliberately designs to look like a decent ICE car instead of a toy like a lot of other BEVs. The idea being to draw in people who might not be looking specifically for an electric and/or don't want to make a loud statement to the world they are driving an electric. This is very good, subtle strategy. I suspect the Model 3 is going to have a strategy along the same lines, competing in one of the more crowded segments of the market, or on the fringes of it rather than another niche like the Model S aimed for. There demand for subcompact luxury cars is not that high, but compact and midsize are the sweet spot.
If the reduction from the Model S is in fact 20% less volume, that puts the car right into that compact/midsize range.
The interesting thing about Model 3 is that, it is likely to have higher drag coefficient than the 0.24 Model S achieves. If the Model 3 could be a 90% scaled version of Model S, then it would have the same 0.24 drag coefficient. However that's not possible because the headroom needs to stay the same and therefore they can't make the car shorter. That means the Model 3 is likely to have a drag coefficient of 0.27. Anything below 0.27 would be a great achievement for Model 3. I wouldn't expect much headroom in Model 3.
MassModel3
Member
There I think you're wrong. Tesla wants to sell these to everybody. 75% of white males are 6 feet tall. A car tight on head room will not do good things for sales unless Tesla is targeting women or non-white men. There will be a comfortable amount of room in the Model 3, and even more if you get the sunroof/panoramic roof optoin.
But to your point, yes this factor alone could increase drag coefficient compared to the Model S, but we'll just have to wait and see what Tesla manages to come up with.
MassModel3
Member
Yes, you're right. I didn't mean to say that 75% of men are 6 feet tall (okay, I meant it at the time), but up to 75% of men. And to your other point, I'd say up to 75% of men are a quarter inch shy of 6 feet tall. (Good catch, my bad.)
I agree with what you're saying. It looks very unlikely that it will be 20% shorter. I think I was ignoring the facts because I have a personal preference for small cars. (past 2 cars have been a Mazda 2 and a Mini Cooper.) I guess I wish they would make a small hatchback like a Mini or a VW Golf. Maybe some day...
Most men also have most of their height above the waist (and women are proportionately longer legged than men). Even some men shorter than 6 feet will be pushing into the headliners of some cars. I'm hyper aware of the space for the driver because I'm the opposite of most men, I have very long legs and a short torso. Finding enough legroom in a car is very difficult.
I suspect the aerodynamics of the Model 3 probably won't be quite as good as the Model S, but there will also be trade offs for less weight. Once Tesla is making their own batteries, I expect they will be compacting the same capacity into a lot less space. I've seen the number about 30% space savings could be achieved with custom shaped batteries instead of using commercially available cells. The Model 3 would then be a fair bit lighter. A 50KWh battery could take up the space of a 35KWh battery today and with the lower weight overall, the car could still go 200 miles on a charge.
I like roomier cars and am looking at a Model S for myself (still need to save some more money first), but my SO likes smaller cars. She had a 96 Subaru Outback for many years and just got a 2013 Impreza at the end of 2012. Those cars work well for her, but the legroom is too little for me on a long trip. We went on a trip to California in her Impreza earlier this year and I was quite stove up from bad leg position driving. I think the old Outback and new Impreza have about the same wheelbase as a BMW 3 Series and the Legacy sedan has about the same wheel base. So she would probably be quite happy if the Model 3 came in around those dimensions.
She's said she would be keeping her Impreza for a long time, but she's now considering a Model 3 when they come out. I looked at a lot of cars before looking at Tesla, the Model S is a big upsell for me. But it's the only car I looked at my SO has had any real interest in.
I can see why Tesla probably isn't aiming the Model 3 at the subcompact market. That is where most of the other BEVs are and while they would be a strong competitor in that market, they would almost certainly lose sales on cost competition. If they are in a niche with a lot of potential customers and little BEV competition, they stand a much better chance of taking sales away from ICE vehicles rather than other BEVs.
I suspect the aerodynamics of the Model 3 probably won't be quite as good as the Model S, but there will also be trade offs for less weight. Once Tesla is making their own batteries, I expect they will be compacting the same capacity into a lot less space. I've seen the number about 30% space savings could be achieved with custom shaped batteries instead of using commercially available cells. The Model 3 would then be a fair bit lighter. A 50KWh battery could take up the space of a 35KWh battery today and with the lower weight overall, the car could still go 200 miles on a charge.
I like roomier cars and am looking at a Model S for myself (still need to save some more money first), but my SO likes smaller cars. She had a 96 Subaru Outback for many years and just got a 2013 Impreza at the end of 2012. Those cars work well for her, but the legroom is too little for me on a long trip. We went on a trip to California in her Impreza earlier this year and I was quite stove up from bad leg position driving. I think the old Outback and new Impreza have about the same wheelbase as a BMW 3 Series and the Legacy sedan has about the same wheel base. So she would probably be quite happy if the Model 3 came in around those dimensions.
She's said she would be keeping her Impreza for a long time, but she's now considering a Model 3 when they come out. I looked at a lot of cars before looking at Tesla, the Model S is a big upsell for me. But it's the only car I looked at my SO has had any real interest in.
I can see why Tesla probably isn't aiming the Model 3 at the subcompact market. That is where most of the other BEVs are and while they would be a strong competitor in that market, they would almost certainly lose sales on cost competition. If they are in a niche with a lot of potential customers and little BEV competition, they stand a much better chance of taking sales away from ICE vehicles rather than other BEVs.
I think that is will be 20% shorter than a Model S and will just use the space better. I expect it to have similar interior size to a 3 series but very short overhangs (much like the design shown).
The sleek, long design of a typical sedan is pretty wasteful, and a perception that Tesla could help to change.
There is an old saying "Light, Strong, Cheap, = Choose two" . I can't see a model 3 coming in at the weight of a Model S if it is 3 Series size. Lack or a titanium battery protector, lack of a full aluminium body and dozens of other weight compromises will have to be made to sell the Model 3 at the released price.
If the model 3 has the interior space of a 3 series, I think that the majority of buyers would find the extra power and lower running costs of the electric drive will overcome the lack of traditional proportions.
I really like the design shown and think it is way more realistic than the people who think the model 3 will be a 4" shorter Model S
The sleek, long design of a typical sedan is pretty wasteful, and a perception that Tesla could help to change.
There is an old saying "Light, Strong, Cheap, = Choose two" . I can't see a model 3 coming in at the weight of a Model S if it is 3 Series size. Lack or a titanium battery protector, lack of a full aluminium body and dozens of other weight compromises will have to be made to sell the Model 3 at the released price.
If the model 3 has the interior space of a 3 series, I think that the majority of buyers would find the extra power and lower running costs of the electric drive will overcome the lack of traditional proportions.
I really like the design shown and think it is way more realistic than the people who think the model 3 will be a 4" shorter Model S
I really hope the Model 3 will look like this (taken from another thread):
MassModel3
Member
dgpcolorado
high altitude member
Wasteful? As I understand it, one advantage of a longer car is a lower Cd, other things being equal (by contrast, making the car narrower helps with aerodynamics). And a longer wheelbase improves the ride. I'd be pretty surprised if the length of the Model 3 was 20% less than that of the Model S.
The Model S specs I found are:
Length: 196 inches
Wheelbase: 116.5 inches
Width: 77.3
Height: 56.5
20% shorter length would be 157 inches
20% shorter wheelbase would be 93 inches (not that the wheelbase has to shrink by the same proportion as the length)
20% narrower would be 62 inches
To put that in perspective, the midsize LEAF is:
Length 175 inches
Wheelbase: 106.3 inches
Width: 69.7 inches
Height: 61 inches
Will the Model 3 be smaller than the current LEAF? I'm guessing it won't. If the Model 3 really does turn out to be about 20% smaller than the Model S, I tend to agree with those who suggest that it will be in something like overall volume, not length or width.
That's a thought. They might achieve most of the 20% volume reduction from making the Model 3 narrower, but only reduce the length a little bit. The Model S is a very wide car. It's a little wider than my Buick Roadmaster which was the last of the GM rear wheel drive body on frame cars. It shared the chassis with the early 90s Caprice and Impala SS. They could shave off some width on the Model 3 and still be as wide as the competition.
I am at the other end of the spectrum with short legs and long torso. Legroom is never really a problem, but I am headroom challenged in some cars. My LEAF has a really tall ceiling, and even to me it seems to have excessive headroom. I think they designed it to accommodate people almost 7' tall. I have had some small sports cars that worked for me well by having the driver seat recline backwards so that I am feeling like I am laying down rather than sitting up. Mazda Rx7 for instance tended to have a very reclined driving position. That works great for keeping the car low and sleek, but can start to compromise frontwards visibility and ability to have good leverage on the steering wheel. I suppose the Gen3 designers will have some decisions to make about the expected typical recline for the driver and related roof height.
Candleflame
Active Member
The lenght of the Model S is a serious problem in the UK where the roads and parking spaces are tiny. Just to give you an idea, the model s does not fit in a standard uk parking space. Theres about 30cm sticking out. ^^
ludicrousspeed
Member
What does everybody think of the prospects of the Model 3 design resembling that of a Mazda 6?
Personally, I haven't loved the design of some of the concept images roaming the internet and even on this thread. I think the Mazda 6 might strike more resemblance to the eventual Model 3 sedan than any other car on the market because it reminds me of a smaller version of the Model S, which is what seems to be coming from Tesla based on comments from Musk. I also know that one of the head designers for Tesla, Von, Holzausen, used to work for Mazda.
What do you think the chances of this are and how content with a design similar to this would you be?
Personally, I haven't loved the design of some of the concept images roaming the internet and even on this thread. I think the Mazda 6 might strike more resemblance to the eventual Model 3 sedan than any other car on the market because it reminds me of a smaller version of the Model S, which is what seems to be coming from Tesla based on comments from Musk. I also know that one of the head designers for Tesla, Von, Holzausen, used to work for Mazda.
What do you think the chances of this are and how content with a design similar to this would you be?
For the most part I agree but I think the 6 is too big for the model 3. Is there a smaller version of the 6 ? Maybe that ? Also TM has said that it will NOT be a smaller version of the Model S only a smaller size and possibly a more radical design but possibly a more simple design. They are looking at the best way to go. Radical takes more time and simpilier is less revolutionary. Pros and cons to both....
