"This is the big thing about Tesla that people don't understand" - Yahoo Finance

[muleferg]

History of Electric Vehicles - Early Years

Check this one out.

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http://inventors.about.com/od/estartinventions/a/History-Of-Electric-Vehicles.htm

Check this one out.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

I get that I'm probably feeding a troll here, but you are assuming the outcome of a hypothetical comparison of subjective features of yet to be released vehicles. Furthermore, you are imposing only three choices, when many more would exist, should this assumed/hypothetical/subjective future of yours come to pass. I sense a different agenda than open honest discussion.

+1. You must be referring to Eds. From his "insider info" about supply issues to now suppositions about hypothetical situations that have yet to happen.

The closest that anyone has come is the Audi R8 etron, and the results were that no response was necessary, since the etron isn't even available [in the US] and costs more than an arm and a leg. Clearly, it only expands the EV market vs. competes in it.

Eds is just creating a foundation of forum traffic that he can then use elsewhere claiming "concerns on TMC about TSLA issues", etc. That's my opinion on it anyway.

 

[Bangor Bob]

Just wondering how will Tesla respond to other car manufacturers releasing electric powered vehicles that have a. significantly better interior quality b. high ranking in vehicle quality?

1. Reduce price of their vehicles; lower profit margin?

2. Improve qulity; higher cost of design and development and materials used?

3. Get out of vehicle business and focus on energy storage / management?

4. More "quality efficient" use of materials. Same cost, better result.

 

[tander]

The big thing I wonder with the Ford playbook is whether they will actually lower the price of the model III sequentially each year. I'm guessing they probably won't do that if they don't have to but if gas prices stay low I wouldn't be surprised, one good way to "accelerate the advent of sustainable transport" is to make it better AND cheaper each year. With regard toward the post from Eds, I think it might be a while before any of the other car makers will be able to make a better car than Tesla without taking big losses. Remember most other car makers are just getting used to the idea of hybrids let alone full electrics, and it sounds like Tesla has a pretty clear lead on auto driving and charging. Tesla wants other car makers to make better electric cars, but not necessarily better than Tesla.

 

[jvonbokel]

The big thing I wonder with the Ford playbook is whether they will actually lower the price of the model III sequentially each year. I'm guessing they probably won't do that if they don't have to but if gas prices stay low I wouldn't be surprised, one good way to "accelerate the advent of sustainable transport" is to make it better AND cheaper each year. With regard toward the post from Eds, I think it might be a while before any of the other car makers will be able to make a better car than Tesla without taking big losses. Remember most other car makers are just getting used to the idea of hybrids let alone full electrics, and it sounds like Tesla has a pretty clear lead on auto driving and charging.

Elon's always said that Li-ion improves at ~7-8% per year, and that can be used to increase capacity or decrease cost. I suspect Model III will be no exception to that rule, and will either gain range every 1-2 years or decrease in cost (or both - base model decrease in cost @200mi range, optional larger capacity packs increase in size but stay the same cost).

I agree Tesla has a lead in charging, but I don't think it's technologically significant. Other automakers charging is just as fast when measured by %, so I expect them to ramp up charging rates (in kW) as their pack sizes increase. It will be costly, however, because they didn't plan for it from the beginning. For example, Nissan will incur substantial costs upgrading hundreds of 50kW chargers to 100+kW chargers.

I disagree that Telsa has a lead in auto driving, however. Other manufacturers have auto-steering already. That said, Elon has made it clear he intends for Tesla to be a leader in that area, and they're gaining ground fast, so I anticipate they will surpass the competition in the near future.

Tesla wants other car makers to make better electric cars, but not necessarily better than Tesla.

Well put! This is a simple, but excellent point.

 

[adiggs]

... Tesla wants other car makers to make better electric cars, but not necessarily better than Tesla.

Not saying that I'm correct, but as I understand the Tesla vision, it isn't "accelerate the advent of sustainable transport that is almost as good as what we make"; it's just "accelerate the advent of sustainable transport". I believe that if Elon woke up one morning and discovered that Tesla had no compelling competitive differentiation to offer the market, he would sell his stake and move on to something new, and be ecstatic about that outcome - Elon would LOVE to see other car companies making better electric cars than Tesla, and at higher volumes and cheaper prices. I believe he would LOVE LOVE LOVE to see Tesla "lose" to better competition, and driven out of business by better competition. (I also believe that he despairs of the other car companies even providing something in shouting distance of competitive - if he's like me, I'm thinking Tesla will be disrupting the entire auto mfg industry, and the only question is who else is going to jump in and help - I see Toyota, GM, BMW, VW Group, Chrysler, and on and on as the Walking Dead - but that's my opinion )

From an investing point of view, you'll want to share that vision, or at least be ready and willing to exit the carousel well in advance of Tesla achieving ordinary competitiveness, as I believe that would mark the end of Elon's direct day-to-day involvement. For many investors, his involvement is an important part of the investment thesis (it may or may not be part of yours).

 

[tander]

Not saying that I'm correct, but as I understand the Tesla vision, it isn't "accelerate the advent of sustainable transport that is almost as good as what we make"; it's just "accelerate the advent of sustainable transport". I believe that if Elon woke up one morning and discovered that Tesla had no compelling competitive differentiation to offer the market, he would sell his stake and move on to something new, and be ecstatic about that outcome - Elon would LOVE to see other car companies making better electric cars than Tesla, and at higher volumes and cheaper prices. I believe he would LOVE LOVE LOVE to see Tesla "lose" to better competition, and driven out of business by better competition. (I also believe that he despairs of the other car companies even providing something in shouting distance of competitive - if he's like me, I'm thinking Tesla will be disrupting the entire auto mfg industry, and the only question is who else is going to jump in and help - I see Toyota, GM, BMW, VW Group, Chrysler, and on and on as the Walking Dead - but that's my opinion )

From an investing point of view, you'll want to share that vision, or at least be ready and willing to exit the carousel well in advance of Tesla achieving ordinary competitiveness, as I believe that would mark the end of Elon's direct day-to-day involvement. For many investors, his involvement is an important part of the investment thesis (it may or may not be part of yours).

In one sense it seems like he would love see Tesla "lose" to better competition, but in reality I think when they say "accelerate the advent..." they're saying they just want less ice cars made asap, and they want to do it by making really good electric cars. But that said, as long as Tesla is in business, it's going to be in their best interest to be making the best electric car, and considering that Tesla's business is structured more like a quick moving software company than a slowly iterating incumbent car business, it would take probably over a decade for any other incumbent car maker to change their corporate culture enough to really challenge Tesla (there could startups that would challenge them out there too though). Beyond that who knows, Tesla may be the slow moving incumbent some day. The other thing is that Tesla is a core piece of the Musk empire, it's much more than a Paypal sort of thing to him IMO, so it would be really surprising to see him sell it. With regard to day to day involvement, I bet the car business kind of boring to him it's really just kind of a side gig (ha) and public companies are kind of a pain to run, so in five or ten years I wouldn't be surprised or worried to see him step back from the day to day.