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Thinking of buying a used model S. No battery warranty worries
- Thread starter AMPd
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Ostrichsak
Well-Known Member
The CPO program no longer exists but you can still get used w/warranty directly from Tesla even though selection is pretty slim these days.
Yes, the ICE will have ongoing maintenance but each maintenance item won't be $15,000 all at once.
I don't know your financial situation or whether you've ever lived like the vast majority of Americans but most simply can not lay down $15,000 at a moment's notice. It would be financial ruin for them if they suddenly had to do so. That's the issue/risk with an out of warranty Tesla.
Personally it wouldn't ruin me financially but that's still a pretty big hit for me. Would I take that risk? I don't think I would even, I would probably just buy the $35,000 car that's still in warranty and is newer and nicer and not have the risk looming over me.
Ostrichsak
Well-Known Member
tldr; for the average American they can't afford to buy a $20k car AND fork over $15k years down the road in the rare event that the battery pack fails out of warranty so they should just fork over $35k now. Math! ROFL
Nope, that's not what I said. I said for me personally I'd just fork over $35K for the car in-warranty and not think about it, that's because I can afford to do so.
But there are plenty of people who only have $20k for a car and can't afford $35k for a car. That makes it very risky to buy a $20k car that has a potential $15k maintenance that can come up at any time (not just years down the road) without warning. It could fail as soon as you sign the paperwork and park it in your garage.
It's obvious you're pretty disconnected from how the average consumer lives. It wasn't too long ago when I was in that financial situation so I remember.
Ostrichsak
Well-Known Member
No, I said years down the road because the OP (remember him? His questions are what I'm trying to address) stated that the cars in question would be under warranty until 2020-2021 which means there's still warranty remaining. This means that he wouldn't be forking out $20k and then IMMEDIATELY forking over $15k. That's just silly.
In OP's situation he expressly mentioned a $30k car. The concern is that after a year or two he will be out of warranty. This doesn't automatically guarantee the battery pack will have a catastrophic failure the next day. In fact, the odds are overwhelming that this simply won't happen but here we are continuing to discuss it as if it's a promise. That's the starting point and the data supports it. If we can't at least agree on that reasonable and logical important point then this whole conversation is worthless.
In OP's situation, his other option (as you've mentioned being the "smarter" move) is to buy a car that's years newer to have a longer warranty. This means he's now shopping for 2016+ cars and will easily spend $50k and up for a comparable car. So that's a guaranteed $20k premium to prevent a rare occurrence of a $15k repair bill down the road. Yet this is the point you want to continue to argue.
As with any car, if you aren't planning for or saving for future repairs or maintenance that's just poor planning... even if Ford or Toyota is on the hood.
Lastly, refrain from knowing my personal financial situation or anything else personal about me in an attempt to prove your point and I will extend you the same respect.
Not to derail the conversation too much, but I owned an M5 (E60, 6MT) and while browsing parts online just for S&Gs I found the short block of the S85 (the V10 engine) had a $40,000 list price. You can buy a used one in good shape for $5-10k, for a long block.
This is obviously not normal for ICE cars, as I believe M engines were still hand-built at the time (now they're just tuned versions of the standard ones), but I consider the M5 and Model S within the same strata of cars, and the repair liabilities aren't too different.
My main concern is not that I’d have to pay to replace the battery
Its that I’ll be stuck with a car that few will want to purchase, or I’d have to sell it for way less than I bought it.
If I get a 2013, the warranty will be good for another 2 years give or take
My M5 will be ready a bit sooner than that so when I try selling the Tesla I might have a hard time getting rid of it she to the unknown price of battery replacement. And yes that’s unlikely but not that rare to have a battery failure
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
Given the scarcity of parts, Even badly wrecked/salvage Model S’s can fetch upwards of $20k as parts cars.
You seem to have a fairly simple risk calculation on your hands.
1) is it worth ~$5-10k more to mitigate the risk of battery / drive unit failure by buying a newer model?
2) are you comfortable with the likelihood of losing ~$15k if your out of warranty S implodes and you need to sell it as a junk/parts car?
IMO you'll definitely take a big hit on depreciation because of that battery replacement cost risk. I'd avoid a 2013 if you don't plan on holding on to it for a long time. As has been discussed, smart buyers will be considering the expensive battery replacement risk and won't pay much for an out of warranty S.
Ostrichsak
Well-Known Member
If this is your main concern buying the car (whichever you decide to go for) getting the right price on the front end should be your primary goal. Sure this means taking the battery pack into account along with many other factors but, as I stated already, you can get a good deal on an older high-mile car just the same as you can over-pay on a newer lower mile car. This applies to any make/model for that matter.
Something else to consider is the intrinsic depreciation you will experience on any car. This is always a higher rate from when it's brand now and tapers off gradually. This means that the older the car the lower the percentage of depreciation. Since the older car is also less expensive this is a compounding math as well. Your investment is lower and then the depreciation percentage is also lower which means you will lose less money via depreciation on the older vehicle that you paid less for up front.
I disagree with this statement. There will always be a market for these cars at any price point, any vintage and any warranty situation. There's always someone out there waiting for a car to get down to $X before they buy and are willing to overlook some of the factors that helped get it to that price. As long as you buy the car right none of this will matter.
There's also the very real possibility that the used market may begin to dry up and drive prices up or at least slow the depreciation rate. This would be in large part due to the fact that this is a newer brand and long-term longevity is still a question mark which scares some buyers off. The recent increase in sightings of Teslas approaching half a million miles will go a long ways to solidify this in the casual buyer's mind once it becomes commonplace. This is the exact reason Toyota for example holds it's value due to reliability which is only fractional compared to other ICE offerings. Once the world sees just how reliable EVs can be long-term I think we're going to see a plateau & stabilization in used values just like used 'Yotas. As more and more people become interested in EVs and look for vehicles that fit into their budget this can only help the used market.
Ostrichsak
Well-Known Member
This is crazy to me that some people genuinely believe that there is simply NOBODY out there willing to buy a vehicle at ANY price that was $130k originally simply because it's out of warranty or nearing the end of warranty. This simply isn't true. There's a ton of buyers lined up at any price point on these things... especially that bottom-end. As long as you don't overpay on the front-end given all of these factors you can actually MINIMIZE your exposure to loss due to the factors I mentioned in my previous post.
electricar
Member
Oh there are plenty of parts on high end German cars ( and probably luxury cars built anywhere for that matter, but my experience is with the German brands ) that cost more than $15,000 and buying a used one for $20,000 that ends up costing $35,000 a year later is easy to do. Having said that I think that, just like all the rest of the world's luxury cars, the cheapest Tesla that you buy will end up being the most expensive.
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Someone would be willing to buy it for sure, but the price will go down significantly because of lower demand for an out of warranty S. The warranty is a much bigger deal on a Tesla than a traditional ICE because of the battery failure risk having such a high price to repair.
I think the extra cost to purchase a 2014 would be worth it because that will have a year of warranty remaining when OP wants to sell it and that'll make it much easier to sell, or as RZRZ said a 2013 delivered in 2014 would be a good option as it will be valued closer to a 2013 but with a little more warranty.
Ostrichsak
Well-Known Member
You say that as if the two cars would be the same price when you went to resell. You also don't mention depreciation which will be higher on the newer and more expensive car. There is also some savings in insurance and registration of the two vehicles which is likely minimal but still favors the older and less expensive car.
We're kind of talking in circles here but my point is that too many people automatically assume the newer car will be a better "investment" without doing any of the number crunching that would back that thought up. It's not always the case and in most instances the older cars will be a better financial decision with all factors considered realistically.
