Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Webeevdrivers]

Curious how the NEVI sites that Tesla was selected to build will play out now. Will Tesla build a new leaner more efficient team and gitterdun or will it just cede those sites to another charge chain. I’m surprised Elon hasn’t addressed this in more detail on X. Not even a whisper out there in a new team.

Text below is from Google news.

“A spokesperson for the Joint Office of Energy and Transportation, which runs the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure program, or NEVI, said 10 states have selected Tesla as a charging provider for their projects. NEVI was unable to comment on whether Tesla could fulfill the contracts, as the charging programs themselves are run by individual states”

 

[Tony73]

Bro, I'm not paying for insurance if there are no chances for accidents/injuries. That would be giving your money away for free!

They will die out or have little profits.

Unfortunately, the law does not work that way Neither do uninsured drivers.

 

[Tony73]

Huge. Walmart really leads in many sectors of sustainability. Sad to say but true. From Solar on rooftops to sunlight tubes to replace lighting, etc. If you have an environmental business pitch Walmart will listen.

Why is it a sad thing that the nation’s largest retailer leads in any areas of sustainability.

 

[WolfHero]

The fly in the ointment is you have to give your password to the account(s) with the shares. This means a data breach could easily wipe you out.

This would not be a problem if you do it manually, whether by choice or not (us outside of USA that Say does not support). We can send a copy of statement showing numbers of shares we hold. I did the following:
1. open PDF statement
2. Take screenshot and use some tool and mask out private data. I use FastStone Capture.
3. Print to PDF printer to generate a new PDF file.
4. Upload to Tesla account.
5. Pray that Tesla IR able to successfully manual verify your submission. They never verified my previous submission 2 years ago before wiping it out and needing to start over again.

 

[Singuy]

wHen WayMO boSs tHRough UnProteCted LefT

Waymo doesn't turn into the wrong lane, it's the traffic that's going in the wrong direction.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1786872897195405551

Also Waymo apparently are not tracking cars themselves making mistakes like this on their HDmaps.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782961614116827436

 

[sunwarriors]

It was a theoretical in the future question. But Ajit (Buffet's eventual replacement) commented that Tesla was seeing lower frequency with higher costs due to the cost of repairing complex cars. Not sure if he was speculating or commenting from the data they must have from Geico.

This article is from 2023, but my guess is if the cost is too high, insurers will simply not insure certain cars at all. This could include all EVs. Sorta like hurricanes in Florida or wild fires in California.

Tesla EVs, Even Mildly Damaged, Are Being Written Off by Insurance Companies

Insurers are increasingly concluding that a broken Tesla is too expensive to fix.

www.caranddriver.com

Insurance is required in CA and is an at fault state so unless they change laws, I don't think people will be able to skip it anytime soon. I've also seen some shops not willing to work on certain cars unless the insurer paid a certain amount.

 

[Knightshade]

Their lease securitizations suggest you might be incorrect as to the %.

% of sales subject to lease tends to be single-digits of deliveries for Tesla--- which was the low % of deliveries that are leasing I was talking about-- so clearly people massively prefer to purchase than lease regardless of their tax situations.

Not really sure what your disagree was about given that clearly-told-to-us-by-Tesla fact.

I guess anyone with $ can buy ads on X regardless of what it is?

#freespeech

It is a shame there isn't a manufacturer with a proven business model based upon manufacturing, servicing, and operating a network who could successfully market this package to a third party.


The third party would have a turn-key profit center.

But less profit than if the maker/servicer of the system installed them themselves.

Folks frequently point at Teslas direct-to-customer sales model, and vertical integration, as towering strenghts- and better for consumers than adding middle-men who do nothing but increase costs.

Why have we magically decided adding middle-men for charging is any less dumb than adding them for delivering or servicing vehicles?

Regulatory approval to increase the battery range with a software update? What is that about? Did Tesla need regulatory approval last time they did this?

Yeah that excuse made no sense to me. I couldn't even think of what regulatory body exists that would even care. Certainly none did any of the previous times Tesla put unlocks of existing HW behind a paywall (range in various S/X, and accel boost on the 3/Y come to mind as examples).

 

[2daMoon]

wHen WayMO boSs tHRough UnProteCted LefT

Waymo doesn't turn into the wrong lane, it's the traffic that's going in the wrong direction.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1786872897195405551

Also Waymo apparently are not tracking cars themselves making mistakes like this on their HDmaps.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782961614116827436

I guess this helps explain their low intervention count...

 

[Optimeer]

Interesting discussion about Elon’s visit to China (CGTN is one of China’s state run media)

I created an AI-generated summary with summarize.tech. The 2 most important points from my point of view are:
- The timeline for the full implementation of self-driving technology in China is estimated to be within the next few years.
- The speaker believes that the data-intensive and computer-power-dependent nature of Tesla's FSD technology gives it an edge in the Chinese market, with other Chinese car companies potentially licensing the technology for their vehicles.

00:00:00 - 00:50:00​

In the YouTube video titled "The Implications of Elon Musk’s China Trip," the panelists discuss Elon Musk's unexpected visit to China and the potential deals he made to promote Tesla's self-driving technology there. Musk's visits to China have historically led to significant changes for Tesla and other companies. The panelists view this as a positive development, as it could lead to greater interconnection and openness between the US and China. Tesla's sales in China are significant, as the country is a major market for electric vehicles and a hub for innovation. However, Chinese government policies have restricted the use of certain American products due to concerns over data gathering and potential security breaches, affecting companies like Tesla and Apple. Despite these challenges, Tesla is still seen as a valuable asset to China due to its ability to teach Chinese manufacturers about producing electric vehicles. The video also touches upon the development of self-driving cars and the potential impact on society, including safety, insurance, productivity, and geopolitical relations between the US and China. Musk's decision to import more technology from China is seen as a necessary move, despite political tensions, as the US risks becoming an isolated technological backwater in the transition to sustainable electric vehicles.

• 00:00:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "The Implications of Elon Musk’s China Trip," the panelists discuss Elon Musk's unexpected visit to China and the deal he made to promote Tesla's self-driving technology there. The panelists were shocked by the suddenness of the announcement and the deal's impact on Tesla's stock market. Dr. Joe, from the Institute of American and Oceania study, mentioned that Musk's visits to China often result in significant changes for Tesla and other companies. William Lee, Chief Economist at The Milken Institute, added that while corporate executives frequently travel internationally, the reasons for their visits and the outcomes can vary greatly. The panelists saw this as a positive development, as it could lead to greater interconnection and openness between the US and China.
• 00:05:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "The Implications of Elon Musk’s China Trip," the speakers discuss the unexpected visit of Elon Musk to China and its significance. Musk's trip was facilitated by the Chinese side, indicating potential deals or collaborations. The speakers also mention Musk's decision to cancel his visit to India and suggest it may signal importance for Tesla in the Chinese market. They argue that China's warm reception of Musk, despite tensions between the US and China, is an opportunity for China to demonstrate openness and integrity on the global stage. Additionally, the speakers highlight China's role as a significant market for electric vehicles and a hub for innovation, making Musk's visit particularly valuable for both parties.
• 00:10:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "The implications of Elon Musk’s China trip," the speaker discusses the changing business landscape in China and the importance of foreign companies, specifically Tesla, to the Chinese economy. The speaker notes that many companies have been leaving China due to rising production costs and slowing market demand, but foreign firms, including Tesla, account for a significant portion of urban employment, trade, and tax revenues. Tesla, in particular, is seen as a premium company that introduces new technology and creates high-paying jobs. Despite a decrease in sales in the first quarter of 2023, Tesla is still viewed as a valuable asset to China due to its ability to teach Chinese manufacturers about producing electric vehicles. The speaker acknowledges that not all foreign companies are leaving China and that the country is attracting different kinds of investment as it moves up the value chain. However, they also note that Chinese competitors are becoming more competitive and the halo effect of foreign brands is diminishing.
• 00:15:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "The implications of Elon Musk’s China trip," the speakers discuss the reasons behind the decreasing sales of American companies like Tesla and Apple in China. They explain that Chinese government policies have played a significant role in this trend, as the government has restricted the use of these products due to concerns over data gathering and potential security breaches. Tesla, in particular, has been affected because its self-driving sensors are not allowed near military bases or secure areas. The speakers also mention that there isn't an official state or provincial policy against these products but the quasi-official restrictions are enough to deter sales. They also discuss the sensitivity of the mapping industry in China and the challenges Tesla faces in collecting data without raising national security concerns. The speakers suggest that foreign companies investing in the US have to undergo rigorous security checks, and Tesla may need to address these concerns to continue operating in China.
• 00:20:00 In this section of the podcast "Deep Dive" from CGTN Radio, the hosts discuss the implications of Elon Musk's recent China trip and Tesla's approval to comply with China's data security regulations. The hosts, Dr. Joe and Andy, explore the process of a company being included in the list of compliant models and the importance of data security in China's digital economy. They also touch upon the potential concerns of cross-border data transfer and the balance between development and security. Tesla's inclusion in this list is seen as symbolically important for the company's stock and its long-term vision for smart, connected mobility. However, the hosts note that clearer practices and regulations for data security will be crucial for companies looking to be included in these categories in the future.
• 00:25:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "The implications of Elon Musk’s China trip," the discussion revolves around the development of driverless cars and Tesla's sales in the Chinese market. The speaker acknowledges that while the technology for self-driving cars is advancing, there are policy and societal challenges to address, such as balancing safety and functional needs. He uses the example of internal combustion engine cars and their history of accidents to illustrate this point. Regarding Tesla's sales in China, the speaker expresses skepticism about the impact of political developments and new features, except for a major price cut. He explains that buying a car is a significant purchase with emotional and status implications, making it a complex decision. The speaker also highlights Tesla's unique self-driving technology, which learns from behavior rather than relying on maps, requiring a large amount of data to improve. Elon Musk's exception for entering China with Tesla's technology is attributed to its uniqueness and the learning from data, rather than the data itself.
• 00:30:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "The Implications of Elon Musk’s China Trip," the discussion revolves around Elon Musk's efforts to convince Chinese government officials to accept Tesla's self-driving technology in China. Musk argued that the technology is not taking pictures of military bases or government buildings but rather collecting data on how cars and people behave around Tesla vehicles. The collection of data, however, raises concerns about supervision and privacy. The video also mentions that China is actively developing policies to make self-driving technology safer and reduce traffic jams. Tesla's success in China, where consumers are passionate about trying new things, increases the possibility of self-driving technology being adopted earlier in China than in other countries. However, there are complicated issues surrounding liability and insurance that need to be addressed before full self-driving technology can be approved. The competition in China is also expected to be fierce, which may impact the improvement of the technology. The timeline for the full implementation of self-driving technology in China is estimated to be within the next few years.
• 00:35:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "The Implications of Elon Musk’s China trip," the speaker discusses Tesla's plans to expand its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology in China and the challenges it may face. Tesla aims to learn how Chinese drivers behave on roads different from those in California, where the company has primarily gained experience. The speaker expresses concerns about potential abuses of the technology, such as drivers relying too heavily on it and ignoring their responsibilities. The speaker also compares Tesla's FSD technology to radar-based systems, which have faced issues with traffic jams due to their inability to adapt to complex driving situations. The speaker believes that the data-intensive and computer-power-dependent nature of Tesla's FSD technology gives it an edge in the Chinese market, with other Chinese car companies potentially licensing the technology for their vehicles. The speaker also touches upon the strategic decision for companies to make or buy technology, with the pros and cons of each approach.
• 00:40:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "The Implications of Elon Musk’s China Trip," the speaker discusses the potential impact of self-driving cars on society, specifically in terms of safety, insurance, productivity, and geopolitical relations between the US and China. The speaker notes that self-driving cars do not speed, reducing the number of auto-related deaths and injuries. This could lead to significant implications for insurance companies and productivity, as people could use their commuting time for work or other activities. The speaker also touches on the geopolitical aspect of Elon Musk's China trip and how it could potentially ease tensions between the US and China regarding imports and exports of electric vehicles and technology. The speaker argues that consumers need free choices and that the development of self-driving cars in China could be a trend to reduce the impact of fossil fuels on the environment.
• 00:45:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "The implications of Elon Musk’s China trip," the speakers discuss the potential consequences of the US becoming an isolated technological backwater in the transition to sustainable electric vehicles. Musk's decision to import more from China is seen as a necessary move, despite political tensions and ideological differences. The speakers express concern that the deep-rooted irrationality in the American psyche, where political conviction is conflated with religious belief, may hinder the US from keeping up with the global community. The cancellation of Musk's scheduled trip to India and its potential impact on Tesla's project in the country is also discussed, with observers expecting India to strike a balance between public rhetoric and pragmatism.
• 00:50:00 In this section of the YouTube video titled "The implications of Elon Musk’s China trip," experts discuss the potential implications of Elon Musk's technology development in China for India and the prospect of Tesla expanding into India. They suggest that China's desire for this technology may lead to the development of Self-Driving cars being used to learn about Indian drivers and roads. India is expected to encourage the construction of Tesla's Gigafactory in India to learn from mistakes made elsewhere. However, Prime Minister Modi's reaction to Tesla's investment in China is uncertain due to India's different infrastructure, regulatory environment, and efficiency compared to China. The experts believe that India may still welcome Tesla and other EV companies, but forcing them to enter the market without incentives may not be attractive to investors.

 

[insaneoctane]

visiting Beijing auto show:
ICE age is over in china, there was so many EV’s on display.
Saw about 20 Chinese cars similar than Tesla Y or 3, the competition is here in China and Tesla is the reference.

This is exactly why China made the deal with Tesla for GigaShanghai

 

[Ellec]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1786805033071268346

semi .. at a slow pace, but something better than nothing

These companies will benefit most from Semi+FSD. It will save on fuel, maintenance and driver costs long term.

 

[Ellec]

I'm not so sure. Elon is not the type of CEO Berkshire prefers to invest in. Warren (and Charlie was like this too) prefer standard business oriented CEO's, meaning predictable and dependable, dare I say "cookie cutter". While Warren may admire Elon for what he's accomplished, he has stated many times how Elon is too unpredictable for him to invest into.

While Warren would probably be wise to buy TSLA at it's current low valuation, I think he'd sooner put his money into some dependable blue chip instead. He prefers Coca Cola and Apple over volatile wild cards like Tesla.

Warren is very old and will be handing over the reigns to a younger generation of investors. The problem is he either missed the boat on FSD and watches his insurance stocks drop or invests in Tesla. He doesn't have to stop investing in Coca Cola etc BH has $100+bn in cash itching to be invested.

 

[Ellec]

This would not be a problem if you do it manually, whether by choice or not (us outside of USA that Say does not support). We can send a copy of statement showing numbers of shares we hold. I did the following:
1. open PDF statement
2. Take screenshot and use some tool and mask out private data. I use FastStone Capture.
3. Print to PDF printer to generate a new PDF file.
4. Upload to Tesla account.
5. Pray that Tesla IR able to successfully manual verify your submission. They never verified my previous submission 2 years ago before wiping it out and needing to start over again.

My UK broker Hargreaves Lansdown doesn't allow voting in US shares.

However HL still does not allow voting on US holdings. This is because the shares are usually packaged into a vehicle called Crest Depository Interest, which gives exposure to an overseas security.

The US CDIs that are held through Hargreaves do not have voting rights.

 

[heltok]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1787027655398666298

https://twitter.com/x/status/1787028644399132777

Over the past couple of months, our awesome manufacturing team has built more bots for us to work on, and collect AI data from! We’ve trained and deployed a neural net allowing Optimus to start doing useful tasks, such as picking up battery cells coming down a conveyor and precisely inserting them into a tray.This neural net is running entirely end-to-end, meaning that it only consumes video coming from the bot’s 2D cameras, as well as on-board proprioceptive sensors, and produces joints control sequences directly. It runs entirely on the bot’s embedded FSD computer, powered by the on-board battery. It is designed such that a single neural net can perform multiple tasks as we add more diverse data to the training process. While not being perfect yet and still a little slow, we’re seeing increasingly high success rates with less frequent misses. We’re also training Optimus to recover from failure cases, and are seeing spontaneous corrections happen. We’ve deployed a couple bots at one of our factories, where they’re being tested daily at the real workstations and continuously improving! Optimus also now regularly takes long walks across the office without falling Further work is on-going to make it move faster, as well as dealing with more adverse terrains - all without sacrificing the human-like nature of it. We’re also focusing on repeatability across the fleet, training the neural net to deal with dynamic calibration & small bot-to-bot variance. More updates soon!http://tesla.com/ai

 

[cliff harris]

The rate of progress on optimus is fantastic. I wonder how many people have to do that task before they have sufficient training data? I suspect that we will see a step change in progress when they get out of the lab and actually go to a real location on the line and simply use cameras on the existing workers who are carrying out that task, rather than getting them to wear special equipment.
Even if optimus turns out to be no better than a boston dynamics or figure robot, the fact that is designed and built in-house means Tesla wont be paying profit margins at anyone else to get a robotic workforce.
(in practice I think access to the FSD training supercomputer is going to be a huge positive, once they have a way to amass a serious amount of training data).

 

[Robertj]

The rate of progress on optimus is fantastic. I wonder how many people have to do that task before they have sufficient training data? I suspect that we will see a step change in progress when they get out of the lab and actually go to a real location on the line and simply use cameras on the existing workers who are carrying out that task, rather than getting them to wear special equipment.
Even if optimus turns out to be no better than a boston dynamics or figure robot, the fact that is designed and built in-house means Tesla wont be paying profit margins at anyone else to get a robotic workforce.
(in practice I think access to the FSD training supercomputer is going to be a huge positive, once they have a way to amass a serious amount of training data).

Did you read “We’ve deployed a couple bots at one of our factories, where they’re being tested daily at the real workstations and continuously improving!”

 

[EVWatcher]

Did you read “We’ve deployed a couple bots at one of our factories, where they’re being tested daily at the real workstations and continuously improving!”

When they’ve showed this videos in the past I’ve kinda gotten the sense that what we are seeing is very old. Statements like this kinda confirm it.

 

[Robertj]

When they’ve showed this videos in the past I’ve kinda gotten the sense that what we are seeing is very old. Statements like this kinda confirm it.

If you read the comments and view the video , there are at least 12 bots built and they have been developing skills over the last few months

All confirming Elon’s comments that the bots will be working in the factory this year , as stated above

 

[nativewolf]

Why is it a sad thing that the nation’s largest retailer leads in any areas of sustainability.

That it is a retailer. Low margin business. Every decision is absolutely examined for returns. An insurance company, an oil company, a bank, etc...any of those could do at least as much as Walmart. IMO the second best was Ford. They spent a lot of time and energy right before 2008 on sustainability and were going to make a major push into EVs. They had to spend every dollar they had to survive and that sucked, GM gets completely bailed out for being incompetant and having no financial reserves.

 

[Thekiwi]

If you read the comments and view the video , there are at least 12 bots built and they have been developing skills over the last few months

All confirming Elon’s comments that the bots will be working in the factory this year , as stated above

At 53 sec mark it appears to show Optimus working in something that looks like a factory environment