Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wipster]

Why?


We've been told for a while now that Tesla made SCs are massively cheaper than alternatives--- with hard numbers from all the various competitive bidding for government charger money.

That being the case it seems like Tesla ramping up production-- either to continue scaling more affordable but still profitable chargers--- or just selling chargers to others --would've made more sense than scaling back- business wise.




Again- why? They're much cheaper to make than the competition-- so even at HIGHLY competitive charge rates they're {B]the opposite of an expense[/B]-- they're a profit center.




I mean- it'd be BETTER if the government pays the upfronts-- but it's profitable even when Tesla does. "Only do it when the government pays for it' ain't the mission.



This makes no sense-- Tesla is making a profit right now on SCs- and that would simply grow with more of them until the market was saturated--- which it is not.... lots of folks have commented on lots of gaps remaining---- not to mention all the folks without home charging options who are reluctant to go EV at all while L3 charging remains uncommon in their area.

You missed my point and the big picture my friend... that's too bad.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Maybe its my autism but I'm not even sure what that means or how it relates to my post, could you honestly explain it to me?

Pick your metaphor. Here's another one: if you stare at the ditch that's where you'll end up. Reuters is just lying for profit. Don't sugar coat it.

 

[jerry33]

And just like that, we were green again.

You know, the more I think about the ROF of the SC staff, although I question how it was done (at least as far as I know), may be part of a planned strategic move by Elon and Tesla. Think about it, they spent the last year convincing all the EV manufacturers in world to use your NACS plugin, which in the short term forces most of not all of the new (and some existing) EV's being produced to use the existing SC network.

But now that means that an ever increasing amount of EV's using SC's will not be manufactured by Tesla. So any additions to the SC network by Tesla (at least in NA) will not be revenue neutral, they now become an expense. By slowing down the build out of fast charging stations by Tesla alone, if the Feds want to accelerate the use of EV's, they will be forced to pay for accelerated build out, plus now that all EV's use NACS, the most efficient and effective way to do it quickly is by building more SC's rather than any competitive solutions. The build out could be performed by Tesla or licensed to others but paid by the Feds.

An alternative would be to make a profit center and charge more for SC use for build out, akin to selling printers but forcing people to buy the ink cartridges from the manufacturer. But that goes against encouraging widespread adoption of EV's if it costs as much or more as gas or diesel.

Honestly, IMO the combination of these two items (NACS adoption, SC slowdown), which I think has been the strategy by Elon and crew all along, may turn out to be one of the more strategic items they've ever done... brilliant!

Time will tell...

Edit add: It's like getting everyone hooked on Heroin when you're the only dealer when you decide to cut back on the amount of H... the users will pay a bunch to get their fixes.

Even after opening up, aren't the vast majority of people charging driving Teslas? Tesla made a profit when only Tesla owners used the Superchargers so why would the small amount of non-Teslas make it an expense?

 

[cliff harris]

With robotaxis, I think people focus way too much on end user and forget B2B. If robotaxi becomes real, then the job of every delivery driver is in peril, especially those who drive a regular route from factory A to warehouse B. In those situations you KNOW there are staff at A who can load up the van, and people at B who can unload it. There is no need for some optimistic idea of optimus knocking on your door to hand you a parcel or fit a child seat in your robotaxi.

So much driving goes on behind the scenes to make our modern lives possible. Every single item you see on a shelf in a store got there because someone drove it from the factory to the warehouse, then from the warehouse to the store. All of that can be done by FSD without ever needing to address all the problems we obsess over here, like people vomiting in a a cybercab, or elderly people needing help getting in and out.

Maybe we will still be here arguing about the economics of cybercabs, while a huge fleet of FSD powered semis starts making the entire business of distribution a ton safer and cheaper. The economics of the semi are already appealing. Add in zero driver, zero health insurance, sick leave and HR and mandatory rest-stops... Perhaps robotaxi is irrelevant for the next 5 years. The thing to watch is when pepsi start using their semi's in autonomous mode?

 

[nativewolf]

Pfft! I don’t nap.

I have it. Not yet erected. I went with a Riga. Comes with the required German How To Assemble text book of 200pgs. I’m going to see if I can assemble it by just reading every 4th page.

As a matter of fact I am. Already been working in the forest for a couple of weeks. It’s where you’ll find my body when the time comes. It’s snowing a tiny bit right now (quick! everyone look at satellite weather maps to find me), while I have a snack and swap out my chainsaw battery. Yeah, I have Starlink all over the place up here.

Awesome, my forests keep me sane. Or rather my clients. Enjoy. Go take a nap. BE CAREFUL. Electric chainsaws are running really high RPM and most chaps are not adequate. So very careful. Once you pick up any chainsaw it is the most dangerous job in America. Don't want to scare you but always look, think, cut. Cut off and ensure blade has stopped. Electric chainsaws are awesome, one day it will move into pro saws but we use for light work already.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

What I find shocking is that Canada had a separate SC Team.
Does every country have their team then?

Where was the US team based?

Where was the Canadian team based?

 

[insaneoctane]

It's a profitable line of business

Source?

 

[jerry33]

You spent a 50 years getting to phones, that's what Tony misses. In most countries phone ownership was still frightfully low. Internet connections non existent. So they moved to cell phones in 1990. Every wealthy Thai had a cell phone in 1990. 17 years later we had smart phones and it was not that it was that big a jump. People had already moved to cell phones. We were in a 5 year upgrade window or even 4 years. Altogether it took over 20 years to move from landlines to smart phones. This is where Tony glosses over things. It wasn't overnight. It also was exactly counter to the phenomena he expects to see with TaaS. He expects people to share cars like they shared phones. I suspect he is missing societal nuances there. We'll see in 10 years. I think people will pay for FSD and own cars. I think most RT use will only occur when forced by travel, substance abuse, and physical network friction (parking). Some people sure, not most.

My understanding is that even the poorest countries (maybe NK is the exception) there is at least one smartphone per family. At the local solar society meeting, there were speakers showing an $80-$120 solar charging system for smartphones plus a couple of electric lights that used easily obtainable tech, rugged, and easily repairable. The speakers said that a family without electricity--of which there are many in poor countries--now charge at the convenience store (or equivalent for $1.00).

 

[Webeevdrivers]

And just like that, we were green again.

You know, the more I think about the ROF of the SC staff, although I question how it was done (at least as far as I know), may be part of a planned strategic move by Elon and Tesla. Think about it, they spent the last year convincing all the EV manufacturers in world to use your NACS plugin, which in the short term forces most of not all of the new (and some existing) EV's being produced to use the existing SC network.

But now that means that an ever increasing amount of EV's using SC's will not be manufactured by Tesla. So any additions to the SC network by Tesla (at least in NA) will not be revenue neutral, they now become an expense. By slowing down the build out of fast charging stations by Tesla alone, if the Feds want to accelerate the use of EV's, they will be forced to pay for accelerated build out, plus now that all EV's use NACS, the most efficient and effective way to do it quickly is by building more SC's rather than any competitive solutions. The build out could be performed by Tesla or licensed to others but paid by the Feds.

An alternative would be to make a profit center and charge more for SC use for build out, akin to selling printers but forcing people to buy the ink cartridges from the manufacturer. But that goes against encouraging widespread adoption of EV's if it costs as much or more as gas or diesel.

Honestly, IMO the combination of these two items (NACS adoption, SC slowdown), which I think has been the strategy by Elon and crew all along, may turn out to be one of the more strategic items they've ever done... brilliant!

Time will tell...

Edit add: It's like getting everyone hooked on Heroin when you're the only dealer when you decide to cut back on the amount of H... the users will pay a bunch to get their fixes.

I don’t think any other manufacturer has switched yet. I suspect a lot are now rethinking any plans to switch.

 

[2daMoon]

Do you really believe a shift from owning a personal car to just hailing a ride would be comparable to going from a regular cell phone to a smart phone?

I don't believe that to be realistic. There's a long ramp (again 10+ years is probably extremely conservative) to convince people that using a RT would be easier than owning a car. It wouldn't be easier until there's density, everywhere. RT for the foreseeable future will be a Uber/Taxi/Lyft competitor, which isn't a negative. I think a long term goal that a shift of ownership occurs is possible and merits debate, but certainly not imminent.

If you are unable to find realistic how people will always gravitate to things that cost less, provide convenience, increase safety, and offer a better overall life experience, then you live in a world that is markedly different than the one I'm most familiar with.

In this world the Robotaxi offers a number of advantages. Not every advantage will appeal to every buyer, but each can influence their use decision.

Advantages of only using Robotaxi:

Private transport - no driver to deal with (attitude, odors, tipping, mass transit, etc.)​

Parking - avoids fees in some situations when away​

Repurpose of a garage, carport, and/or driveway space​

Saves money and time necessary for maintenance, repair, driving, cleaning, and such​

Safer for a wide number of vulnerable users such as aging, children, women, frequenters of drinking establishments and those who share the roads with them, etc.​

Never suffer the aggravation of driving in traffic again.​

Advantage of Robotaxi while also owning a car:

Reduced wear and tear on personal vehicle that results in lower cost of ownership and keeping the vehicle longer​

Avoid frustration of traffic, save driving duties for trips that are more pleasant experiences and use the Robotaxi for daily routines​

​

Advantages of Robotaxi replacing second car in a two-car residence:

Cuts costs of car ownership drastically once all factors are tallied up (purchase, registration, maintenance, parking, insurance, etc.)​

Frees up half of a two-car garage for other purposes​

Reduced frequency of driving in traffic insanity-inducing episodes​

Advantages of Robotaxi used for delivery of prepared food, goods, and services:

Fast food delivery​

Package delivery​

Medicine delivery​

Medical services (doctor sends staff to patient's home using a Robotaxi for many of the reasons above)​

Other services that can be brought to the home (pet care, baby sitter, personal care, etc.)​

All of which will save both the service provider and the customer time and money while offering convenience and safety​

​

Once AI autonomy is clearly viable, people will be nagging any legislator who drags their feet on making such a life-changing service available. Robotaxi use will grow at an exponential rate (limited only by production) because of the wide variety of aspects it will bring to the user.

I'm fairly certain I've only touched on a few of the advantages and potential use cases, each of which may not apply to everyone. Anyone with a smidgen of imagination should be able to easily come up with one or two more.

Nearly anyone looking at such a list will find something that will apply to them. Mostly because the bottom line will be money saved, followed by safety and convenience as the factors that make such a service a slam-dunk.

I don't consider people who are unable to see this as realistic, as being all that realistic themselves.

Edit: Regarding the @uscbucsfan disagree, below. I felt it was realistic to presume that you disagreed with the response above. That is what prompted it being written after all.

 

[jerry33]

Pfft! I don’t nap.

I have it. Not yet erected. I went with a Riga. Comes with the required German How To Assemble text book of 200pgs. I’m going to see if I can assemble it by just reading every 4th page.

Sounds similar to the advanced toilet seat from Toto. 26 pages of instructions, not including the warning pages and warranty page.

 

[jerry33]

I don'tknow precisely where "here" is but for Texas as in your sig broadly- yes here.

Uber Statistics 2023: How Many People Ride with Uber?

Key Uber user statistics. Includes data on market share, employees and more.

backlinko.com

The #1 metro area in the US for uber market share is Houston. Dallas-Fort Worth is number 7.

Now you know why it's #7.

 

[GatorMeat]

I don’t think any other manufacturer has switched yet. I suspect a lot are now rethinking any plans to switch.

Why would they rethink NACS? Tesla still has the best and largest network and is still growing, just not as fast. Did OEMs expect to freeload off Tesla SuC expansion forever? Maybe this is a message to the industry and the WH that Tesla isn't going to fund this themselves, and now there are lots of qualified employees out there to seed other NACS networks. It's a positive

 

[sunwarriors]

I think it is nearly impossible to know what robotaxi services will be like in the future, nor predict the business model.

Before modern phones I recall paying long distance charges (and hence 800 numbers) and also a per text and data usage fees. No one predicted all the uses of a smart phone.

AVs will profoundly change cities and society I believe in ways we cannot model.

I don't think it's that hard honestly. A robotaxi will be like a taxi. I don't think anyone here, even massive bulls believe a robotaxi will take you from say, San Diego to the bay area, nor from San Diego to Los Angeles (possible, but the cost will probably be too high, my assumption here).

It's a taxi, what is there that's unknown? It takes you from A -> B. Sure, I can watch a movie or some ads in the car, but how much $$ is that (and people will just get car sick and throw up in said taxi).

Unlike a phone, taxi's compete with your own car, gas, free charging at home, not having to buy something new.

 

[insaneoctane]

Tesla does need a new mission statement. That is true.

How about "World domination such that we select more good, less dumb, people who try and control our lives..." /s

 

[2daMoon]

Sounds similar to the advanced toilet seat from Toto. 26 pages of instructions, not including the warning pages and warranty page.

Butt, when it comes to toilet seats those extra pages might be handy...

 

[DarkandStormy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1785750284314030397

 

[willow_hiller]

Sounds like Tesla working on deeper LLM integration within their vehicles. "Tesla voice assistant" that you can talk to with a wake word, instead of pressing a button:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1785777287910068415

 

[sunwarriors]

Not here, it has only come once in ten tries. My experience with Uber is it's junk.

Maybe it wasn't worth their while for the rates/charge? A RT can go there, but I'm sure this is something that $$ can fix.

 

[Ellec]

I don't think it's that hard honestly. A robotaxi will be like a taxi. I don't think anyone here, even massive bulls believe a robotaxi will take you from say, San Diego to the bay area, nor from San Diego to Los Angeles (possible, but the cost will probably be too high, my assumption here).

It's a taxi, what is there that's unknown? It takes you from A -> B. Sure, I can watch a movie or some ads in the car, but how much $$ is that (and people will just get car sick and throw up in said taxi).

Unlike a phone, taxi's compete with your own car, gas, free charging at home, not having to buy something new.

They could do with your visionary insight at Ford or VW or Toyota.

I guess when the iPhone came out it was "So what? you make calls on it what's the big deal?"