Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

Anyone know when China SuC factory is coming online?

 

[nativewolf]

It will be a lot like how we slogged through those many decades in order to transition to smart phones then?

Once something makes most people's life easier and more enjoyable it is very likely to result in a faster shift than most would have expected. Add in something that makes them safer too and it might amplify this effect.

You spent a 50 years getting to phones, that's what Tony misses. In most countries phone ownership was still frightfully low. Internet connections non existent. So they moved to cell phones in 1990. Every wealthy Thai had a cell phone in 1990. 17 years later we had smart phones and it was not that it was that big a jump. People had already moved to cell phones. We were in a 5 year upgrade window or even 4 years. Altogether it took over 20 years to move from landlines to smart phones. This is where Tony glosses over things. It wasn't overnight. It also was exactly counter to the phenomena he expects to see with TaaS. He expects people to share cars like they shared phones. I suspect he is missing societal nuances there. We'll see in 10 years. I think people will pay for FSD and own cars. I think most RT use will only occur when forced by travel, substance abuse, and physical network friction (parking). Some people sure, not most.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Market seems to like the Fed remarks

There's always that one person in the group

 

[DarkandStormy]

 

[RichardL]

I think it is nearly impossible to know what robotaxi services will be like in the future, nor predict the business model.

Before modern phones I recall paying long distance charges (and hence 800 numbers) and also a per text and data usage fees. No one predicted all the uses of a smart phone.

AVs will profoundly change cities and society I believe in ways we cannot model.

 

[MartinAustin]

Market seems to like the Fed remarks

Well that didn't age well

 

[hobbes]

Tesla Megapack Factory in China to start construction

Tesla’s Megapack Factory in China is ready to start construction this month.

www.teslarati.com

 

[Knightshade]

There is nothing quite as inspiring as seeing a post about an adult responding emotionally to an absence of conclusive data.

/s

You sir owe me compensation for the irony meter you just broke.

 

[jerry33]

I think you'll simply be able to reserve an RT for a period of time or even by the day, so your RT would park at those places and wait for you.

No doubt, but could you afford it? It will be charged by the hour plus the distance.

 

[nativewolf]

I think it is nearly impossible to know what robotaxi services will be like in the future, nor predict the business model.

Before modern phones I recall paying long distance charges (and hence 800 numbers) and also a per text and data usage fees. No one predicted all the uses of a smart phone.

AVs will profoundly change cities and society I believe in ways we cannot model.

Long dist charges had nothing to do with cell phones, it had to do with monopoly busting, careful careful. Yes, TaaS is ...going to evolve.

 

[Knightshade]

And just like that, we were green again.

You know, the more I think about the ROF of the SC staff, although I question how it was done (at least as far as I know), may be part of a planned strategic move by Elon and Tesla. Think about it, they spent the last year convincing all the EV manufacturers in world to use your NACS plugin, which in the short term forces most of not all of the new (and some existing) EV's being produced to use the existing SC network.

But now that means that an ever increasing amount of EV's using SC's will not be manufactured by Tesla.

Why?


We've been told for a while now that Tesla made SCs are massively cheaper than alternatives--- with hard numbers from all the various competitive bidding for government charger money.

That being the case it seems like Tesla ramping up production-- either to continue scaling more affordable but still profitable chargers--- or just selling chargers to others --would've made more sense than scaling back- business wise.

So any additions to the SC network by Tesla (at least in NA) will not be revenue neutral, they now become an expense.

Again- why? They're much cheaper to make than the competition-- so even at HIGHLY competitive charge rates they're {B]the opposite of an expense[/B]-- they're a profit center.

By slowing down the build out of fast charging stations by Tesla alone, if the Feds want to accelerate the use of EV's, they will be forced to pay for accelerated build out, plus now that all EV's use NACS, the most efficient and effective way to do it quickly is by building more SC's rather than any competitive solutions. The build out could be performed by Tesla or licensed to others but paid by the Feds.

I mean- it'd be BETTER if the government pays the upfronts-- but it's profitable even when Tesla does. "Only do it when the government pays for it' ain't the mission.

An alternative would be to make a profit center and charge more for SC use for build out, akin to selling printers but forcing people to buy the ink cartridges from the manufacturer. But that goes against encouraging widespread adoption of EV's if it costs as much or more as gas or diesel.

This makes no sense-- Tesla is making a profit right now on SCs- and that would simply grow with more of them until the market was saturated--- which it is not.... lots of folks have commented on lots of gaps remaining---- not to mention all the folks without home charging options who are reluctant to go EV at all while L3 charging remains uncommon in their area.

 

[Krugerrand]

It's a cat! Wait a few mins it will be napping in the greenhouse.

@Krugerrand hey...that reminds me did the greenhouse get built? Hope you are enjoying the mntn.

Pfft! I don’t nap.

I have it. Not yet erected. I went with a Riga. Comes with the required German How To Assemble text book of 200pgs. I’m going to see if I can assemble it by just reading every 4th page.

As a matter of fact I am. Already been working in the forest for a couple of weeks. It’s where you’ll find my body when the time comes. It’s snowing a tiny bit right now (quick! everyone look at satellite weather maps to find me), while I have a snack and swap out my chainsaw battery. Yeah, I have Starlink all over the place up here.

 

[jerry33]

But they still use Uber.

Not here, it has only come once in ten tries. My experience with Uber is it's junk.

 

[Buckminster]

Pfft! I don’t nap.

I have it. Not yet erected. I went with a Riga. Comes with the required German How To Assemble text book of 200pgs. I’m going to see if I can assemble it by just reading every 4th page.

As a matter of fact I am. Already been working in the forest for a couple of weeks. It’s where you’ll find my body when the time comes. It’s snowing a tiny bit right now (quick! everyone look at satellite weather maps to find me), while I have a snack and swap out my chainsaw battery. Yeah, I have Starlink all over the place up here.

16mm! - practically Franz proof

 

[FreqFlyer]

View attachment 1043501View attachment 1043502

Maybe 4680 development is not where Elon thinks it should be.

 

[Mengy]

When you go to a public pool, do you also sit in the no-peeing section?

Maybe its my autism but I'm not even sure what that means or how it relates to my post, could you honestly explain it to me?

 

[Knightshade]

Not here, it has only come once in ten tries. My experience with Uber is it's junk.

I don'tknow precisely where "here" is but for Texas as in your sig broadly- yes here.

Uber Statistics 2023: How Many People Ride with Uber?

Key Uber user statistics. Includes data on market share, employees and more.

backlinko.com

The #1 metro area in the US for uber market share is Houston. Dallas-Fort Worth is number 7.

 

[Open Interest]

So, a pivot toward a vehicle with two castings, offering the flexibility to offer several models with a variety of wheelbases from the same two castings is considered a "retreat" is it?

Whatta bunch of yahoos.

Agreed! A lower price point will open a new demographic, and costs will be kept in check by using existing lines. Seems like a recipe to sell more cars, to my pea brain.

 

[Doggydogworld]

If somebody is spending, say, $500 a month for a car, and they driver 1,500 miles a month, its already only costing them 33 cents a mile.

Yeah, high mileage drivers aren't the target market. Robos will initially target urban, where annual miles average more like 500-800/month and parking can easily hit $1/mile by itself. 2nd/3rd cars in suburbia is the other big target.

In the US depreciation alone is close to 33 cents a mile. Then add fuel, insurance, maintenance and repair, etc. IRS allows 67 cents a mile. That's a reasonable starting point for surburban.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Anyone know when China SuC factory is coming online?

Yeah, the Shanghai supercharger factory came online on September 7th 2021. It's nominal output is 10,000 supercharger stalls per year.