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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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This is why I brought up asking who has an insurance car cost of $499/month? You might as well simply never drive if you had to pay $6k a year just to legally (have insurance) drive in the US. Sorta like if a life saving drug that one needs is $10 million, they might as well just die honestly since it's not possible to pay for it (or real life case, folks seeing home insurance costs of $10k a year or more now).

I can't speak for anyone else here (knock on wood), but in my decades upon decades of driving, have never been at fault in any moving accident and no, my insurance cost isn't anywhere close to $499/month. Will all these half decent drivers like myself shell out any substantial $$ for FSD because it's 10x safer (your speculation)? Will Tesla insurance charge me exactly what my other insurance will charge me or even less because I have FSD (this has to be much closer to < $100/month).

Contrary to what a lot of people here think, not all of us here created our accounts last month nor are trying to troll people here. The math just doesn't work financially I feel. Elon has a plan of course and we'll see long term how this plays out since I clearly am not as rich/smart/wealthy as him (years).


This has been my general disagreement that people are willing to shell out tons of $$ for FSD. Really bad drivers who had their license suspended, drive under influence, likes to speed, tail gate, cut people off, run red lights, aggressive, etc aren't going to pay for FSD (these are the drivers who really should use it) since it's slow and follows the rules.

I think the $499 would be for adding your vehicle to the network i.e. you would recoup some or all of the cost by letting your car be used as a CyberCab/RobotTaxi, also $499 is pulled from my ass so no idea what the numbers will end up as. I just think it will be higher than $99 when it's more advanced. Perhaps you won't be able to buy a Tesla without it, and will be part of the monthly payment/lease amount.
 
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I was watching Bloomberg's segment about Tesla's layoffs. Apparently, the supercharger team was the key, if not only, remaining point of contact between the other OEM's and Tesla.

With the timing of the leaks...I wonder...
Some perspective, on Reddit a Tesla employee, stated the people who maintain and install SCs have not changed. The team let go were those who sought out new sites and permits to build. And, I guess as you stated, POC for other OEMs.
 
...

With the recent EU regulation to accept any credit or debit card just like a gas station I would expect this to be a thing of the past very soon.
I just counted mine in order to be sure. I presently hold (8) eight distinct EU charging system cards, plus one Canadian, three Brazilian and three US. Hopefully those will eventually gone the way of global, or at least EU-wide interoperability. I suspect the US ones will persist, the Brazilian ones may not standardize until EV use accelerates (this Chinese seem to be the only ones really working there).

By contrast, a decade ago i had five different national banking arrangements with credit/debit cards from each. Today I have two and must deal only with large financial transactions due to approval system slowness in some countries.

All of these can be solved by application of EU-style authorization Point of Sale procedures to EV charging posts. Even the language issues could largely go away by adopting the card-entry based language link to language of card issue, which happened in some countries as long ago as 2008.

Tesla could help all this in many cases were they to link driver data to language preference including mapping. All that is within existing technology. Superchargers should be capable of that today, but are not.
Interoperability is a real thing with Tesla too, just less severely so.
 
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Free speech absoluting at its finest! The leak was something that needed to leak, and probably already had been somewhere else. The funny thing is, Sawyer could scarcely be more of a cheerleader for Tesla, TSLA and EM.

Free speech was not impacted here (tweet is still there), free speech has consequences though i.e. not being followed by Elon.
 
I think the $499 would be for adding your vehicle to the network i.e. you would recoup some or all of the cost by letting your car be used as a CyberCab/RobotTaxi, also $499 is pulled from my ass so no idea what the numbers will end up as. I just think it will be higher than $99 when it's more advanced. Perhaps you won't be able to buy a Tesla without it, and will be part of the monthly payment/lease amount.

I agree with the concept that liability costs will be have to be less than profits. This is basic business strategy and makes sense.

In the long run it is unlikely to be a 'per month' number. Rather, it will be part of the percentage Tesla keeps from revenue for providing the network to private owners with Robotaxis on the network.

That is, regardless of the actual cost it will be transparent to the owner of the vehicle. They'll just take their cut and laugh all the way to the bank. :cool:
 
According to industry insiders, Belgium is on its way to have an oversupply of fast chargers in about 2 years: https://www.tijd.be/ondernemen/mili...nelladers-bij-doe-het-zelfketen/10512454.html

The company quoted in the article believes that at that point, fast charging will be barely more expensive per kWh than regular charging, and certain lower than the 85 cents.

All of this because of government incentives to speed up the rollout of fastchargers, combined with the exponential growth of EV sales. If this can happen in Belgium it can happen anywhere.

BTW: It’s a sunny and windy holiday and my car is currently charging at -0.12 €/kWh at home.
It it time for my family to move to Belgium? Probably we'd ned to be in Wallonia or Brussels. No problem there, we know how to say 'huitante'. We even have a slight Belgian Royal Acquaintance whose wine collection we are storing for him free. Hmmm.../only a trifle tongue in cheek.
 
You said Tony Seba predicted TaaS would be widely more successful by now than it has been.
His TAAS forecasts were anchored on 2020 approval, which did happen, and complete takeover by 2030 with TAAS providing 95% of all passenger miles, the US car fleet down to 44m cars, etc.

Those two dates are in the "ReThinking Transportation" summary, so you don't even need to download the full report. He gives more forecasts in his talks. Here he shows a series of graphs. The TAAS forecasts for 2024:
  • 15 cent/mile cost
  • 1 trillion passenger miles
  • US fleet down from ~250m to <200m vehicles
  • Zero new US car sales to consumers
He goes on to call an oil demand peak in 2020 at 100m bpd and a permanent price collapse to $25/bbl by 2021-22.
 
The starting point in any comparative analysis of robotaxi vs Uber should be gross bookings not revenue. Uber gross bookings from mobility were $19B last quarter. Mobility revenue was $5.5B. About two-thirds of gross bookings were from North America.
The gross bookings break down almost equally between Uber revenue, driver compensation and driver expenses.

Imagine what Uber’s finances would look like if you could add driver compensation and 50% of driver expenses to its existing mobility bottom line.
Probably right. So how do you view the Robotaxi opportunity? When do you believe Tesla will see revenues of it and in what magnitude?
 
Thanks for the explanation. I have gotten used to that you dislike all my posts so anything else would be surprising :)
The button does not represent ‘dislike’. It represents ‘disagree’. Those two things are very different, though it’s quite possible I feel both. If the forum allowed multiple reactions then that would help.

The moment you say something that evokes a feeling of like, laughter, helpfulness or you provide information I find informative, I will respond accordingly.
 
This thread needs more people being cautionary/bearish. Investing isn't gambling and the more information the better. It's up to readers to decide if it alters an investment hypothesis.

The craziest people IMO are some of the bulls, I mean really nutty like blame the media and calling a reporter a fraud etc only to find out the reporter had done their job very well indeed and were correct. Did the name callers apologize to the thread...no they did not. Just loaded up on the next reporter, then attack Troy for his estimate forecasts.

Now Troy has once again made an estimate forecast that ...will not be well received by the bulls. Will they attack him and then graciously apologize? No, don't think they will apologize when they are proven to be dead wrong.

EM has gone to China and made some level of deal with the CCP to get FSD there, it is a huge opportunity but fraught with risk re loss of IP. Details not released but it involves some level of cooperation with a CCP controlled mapping company. It pumped the stock and EM desperately needs that as his comp vote is coming up. It also removed him from the USA while a high profile layoff was taking place so he doesn't have to answer questions on that. Leaving town and firing people is never a good look.

The push to RT is going to have massive negative environmental costs and uncertain long term impacts on sustainability. I am not sure it will be much more than marginally positive and it's my view that millions of additional EVs would outweigh the impact of RT in the next decade.

The craziest people IMO are some of the bulls, I mean really nutty like blame the media and calling a reporter a fraud etc only to find out the reporter had done their job very well indeed and were correct. Did the name callers apologize to the thread...no they did not. Just loaded up on the next reporter, then attack Troy for his estimate forecasts.
"had done their job very well indeed and were correct" Yes, occasionally. Most of time not well done and with plethora of factual errors, and very often with strongly biased spin and opinions, which I believe is not the job description of journalists.

Now Troy has once again made an estimate forecast that ...will not be well received by the bulls. Will they attack him and then graciously apologize? No, don't think they will apologize when they are proven to be dead wrong.
What exactly is an "attack"? Is this reply itself an attach to you?

EM has gone to China and made some level of deal with the CCP to get FSD there, it is a huge opportunity but fraught with risk re loss of IP. Details not released but it involves some level of cooperation with a CCP controlled mapping company.
What is this spin of everything China to the emperor's new clothes of CCP? Is everything in China is controlled by CCP? Any idea why IP suddenly becomes a hot topic dealing with China? This level of strong spin is, IMO, banned area of this thread.

It also removed him from the USA while a high profile layoff was taking place so he doesn't have to answer questions on that. Leaving town and firing people is never a good look.
Wow!

The push to RT is going to have massive negative environmental costs and uncertain long term impacts on sustainability.
Seems to me that you're very confident about that. If true, that got to be big issue and totally contradict to Tesla's mission. Please enlighten us how and why.

I tried very hard not using several b words. Thank you very much.
 
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It it time for my family to move to Belgium? Probably we'd ned to be in Wallonia or Brussels. No problem there, we know how to say 'huitante'. We even have a slight Belgian Royal Acquaintance whose wine collection we are storing for him free. Hmmm.../only a trifle tongue in cheek.

If you’re moving just for the fast chargers, you’d need to be in Flanders. Wallonia is a couple of years behind Flanders in that respect, for various reasons. Mainly because Flanders is richer with more EV’s, and the Wallonian government not wanting to subsidise rich EV drivers.
 
That is because he left the country and fired them while away so he could avoid answering the question. This in and of itself...raises questions.

Correlation ≠ causation.

What evidence is there that his reason for dismissing them while he was out the country was in order to avoid answering questions?

He does... ya know.. travel quite a bit regularly for business... and:

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