Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

Interesting report out of China saying that Tesla had to buy cathode coils from tier 2 suppliers in China to bridge a shortfall of 4680 production. CATL and BYD declined to supply them since they only want to supply complete cells. Tesla hasn’t been able to make enough cathodes for their 4680 production goals, apparently due to their inability to yield cathode DBE. This occurred in 2023 and may persist well into this year.

Tesla importing cell parts from China to expand 4680 battery capacity, report says

Tesla began purchasing cathode coils from two second-tier Chinese battery makers in the second half of 2023 and shipping them to its Texas factory in the US to produce 4680 batteries, according to local media.

cnevpost.com

This sounds real bad for margins and the ER next Wed. However, by keeping CyberTruck/Semi volume low, there may be little impact to overall margins reported.

And if margins turn out terrible next week, then why on earth would Elon double down with his 25% demand at this time? Seems nuts unless they are much further along with the automation or margins or both. Like what if the Crazy prices of Cybertruck still has 12% margin built in.

Q4 Margins are fine - my final answer.

 

[Stormy24]

didn’t think we would see 190’s again but it’s going that way , time to purchase again. Happy days.

 

[Buckminster]

Robots will be discussed on the talk post 10k at the end of Jan. If you live in the future like Elon there really isn't much else to talk about...

 

[2daMoon]

Will we ever go into a quarterly or annual report without all the angst and prognostications?

It seems to be rare for there to be any significant effect upon the SP from these reports.

It doesn't appear to matter a whit what the facts are, Wally is gonna Wally in an irrational manner, regardless.

How about we just HODL and chill for a change?

 

[SOULPEDL]

didn’t think we would see 190’s again but it’s going that way , time to purchase again. Happy days.

Before I buy more... where's the 190 come from?

 

[MP3Mike]

This sounds real bad for margins and the ER next Wed.

How? There was next to no vehicles delivered in Q4 that used 4680 cells. (They had discontinued the Model Y AWD and the Cybertruck had very few deliveries. And I thought that the Semi is currently using 2170s.)

 

[Knightshade]

Someone earlier suggested part of the recent issue with long lines/stranded cars at Chicago superchargers was a big push to get Uber drivers into Teslas... looks like same is happening in NYC?

Tesla Superchargers are overwhelmed by new Uber drivers in NYC

Some Tesla Superchargers are getting overwhelmed by new Uber drivers in New York City after a new program enabled a...

electrek.co

 

[Stormy24]

Before I buy more... where's the 190 come from?

a crystal ball I purchased.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Someone earlier suggested part of the recent issue with long lines/stranded cars at Chicago superchargers was a big push to get Uber drivers into Teslas... looks like same is happening in NYC?

Tesla Superchargers are overwhelmed by new Uber drivers in NYC

Some Tesla Superchargers are getting overwhelmed by new Uber drivers in New York City after a new program enabled a...

electrek.co

Looks like they really need to get that 52-stall Supercharger built near O'Hare (Des Plaines, IL).

 

[SOULPEDL]

How? There was next to no vehicles delivered in Q4 that used 4680 cells. (They had discontinued the Model Y AWD and the Cybertruck had very few deliveries. And I thought that the Semi is currently using 2170s.)

Yes, hence my conclusion of low impact.

 

[WattsHappening]

Will we ever go into a quarterly or annual report without all the angst and prognostications?

It seems to be rare for there to be any significant effect upon the SP from these reports.

It doesn't appear to matter a whit what the facts are, Wally is gonna Wally in an irrational manner, regardless.

How about we just HODL and chill for a change?

Yep, completely agree.

Until there is a change in the narrative that causes some FOMO and much greater trading volume, TSLA is at the mercy of Wally's whims. I don't see earnings report/call changing that in a significant manner. It's going to take time for this ship to get turned around. Quarters of margin and earnings improvements.

Either that or some big announcement(s). FSD moving out of beta, Chinese approving FSD, OEM signing up for FSD licensing, Optimus making a step-change improvement. None of these are going to be announced on the earnings call.

Hope I'm wrong and Elon surprises us to the upside. But I'm not planning on it. Just HODL and continue to DCA when I can.

 

[NicoV]

Looks like they really need to get that 52-stall Supercharger built near O'Hare (Des Plaines, IL).

Someone earlier suggested part of the recent issue with long lines/stranded cars at Chicago superchargers was a big push to get Uber drivers into Teslas... looks like same is happening in NYC?

High utilisation of superchargers is good … for Tesla’s margins.

 

[unk45]

At the other end of the galaxy.

Really? I thought it might be in another galaxy near the 'outer limits' of the universe.

 

[mongo]

Yes, Hello? That's what I also said in the very next sentence... and backed by my conclusion of low impact.

Your lead sentence was meant as a rhetorical device to act as a foil. However, it could also be taken as your thesis resulting in the given response.

 

[SOULPEDL]

a crystal ball I purchased.

Here’s my crystal ball.

 

[jerry33]

Will we ever go into a quarterly or annual report without all the angst and prognostications?

It seems to be rare for there to be any significant effect upon the SP from these reports.

It doesn't appear to matter a whit what the facts are, Wally is gonna Wally in an irrational manner, regardless.

How about we just HODL and chill for a change?

Where's the fun in that?

 

[Christine69420]

Are you suggesting headquarters on Terminus or elsewhere?

At the other end of the galaxy.

Really? I thought it might be in another galaxy near the 'outer limits' of the universe.

No - it's located in EV heaven - which concept might be near the outer limits of most county leaders to fathom:

95% proof

 

[2daMoon]

Yep, completely agree.

Until there is a change in the narrative that causes some FOMO and much greater trading volume, TSLA is at the mercy of Wally's whims. I don't see earnings report/call changing that in a significant manner. It's going to take time for this ship to get turned around. Quarters of margin and earnings improvements.

Either that or some big announcement(s). FSD moving out of beta, Chinese approving FSD, OEM signing up for FSD licensing, Optimus making a step-change improvement. None of these are going to be announced on the earnings call.

Hope I'm wrong and Elon surprises us to the upside. But I'm not planning on it. Just HODL and continue to DCA when I can.

Add to this how Tesla can't be measured by a yardstick calibrated for companies whose primary goals are margins and profit.

Wally doesn't have a yardstick for a company whose goal is to maximize production and deliveries, with margins and earnings being only tertiary to that goal.

A lot of seasoned investors make this mistake and seem confused every time Tesla does exactly what they said they would and lowers prices with little regard for the effect on earnings and particularly on margin.

Tesla is more likely to aim for just enough earnings to fund future projects and maintain a cushion for difficult economic cycles. Traditional investors have to bend their brains a little to get their head around the Tesla Mission and how the traditional metrics are less useful for measuring success.

Hense, all the moaning and groaning from that sector every time the fastest growing company on the planet deviates from the dated map of where these seasoned investors think it "should" go.

 

[Artful Dodger]

BMW looking to also deploy humanoid robots...

BMW taps humanoid startup Figure to take on Tesla's robot - Reuters

When it absolutely positively has to meme there overnite:

 

[SOULPEDL]

Your lead sentence was meant as a rhetorical device to act as a foil. However, it could also be taken as your thesis resulting in the given response.

I changed my reply wording... I'm not sure what I did there, but it sounded too much like a lot of other emo folks here. It's now just to point out our agreement.

As to my point, I did kinda write my thought process. Ya, I do that.