Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

Something interesting I didn't notice in that screenshot before:

Those are not 3D car models. Notice the layering, or striation--like limestone layers, as you move vertically up the car. This appears to be using some new approach we haven't seen before--or perhaps a much more refined version of the volumetric space-filling algorithms Tesla's been using for FSD?

To add to this:

Finally, this is what I expect from Tesla vision. Multiple camera views taken in 4 dimensions (different positions over time) bundled together using photogrammetric techniques to create a 3D model of what's around your car, which then occupies space in a world transform. Nice!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Apple's head of iPhone and Apple Watch design leaving company: Report

Apple's head of iPhone and Apple Watch design is reportedly leaving the company.

finance.yahoo.com

This is prob a more impt loss for Apple than the head of DOJO leaving Tesla, IMO of course.

 

[dhanson865]

Electric vehicles - IEA

Although the global share of electric mobility is still small, the EV fleet is expanding quickly. Ambitious policy announcements have been critical in stimulating the electric mobility transition in major vehicle markets.

www.iea.org

This says 10.7 million actual EV sales in 2022 from IEA, not 18.3

They've got 6.5 for 2021 in actual sales, 3 for 2020, 2.2 in 2019, 2.1 in 2018, 1.1 in 2017, 0.7 in 2016


It looks like you pulled your chart from here:

Trends in electric light-duty vehicles – Global EV Outlook 2023 – Analysis - IEA

Global EV Outlook 2023 - Analysis and key findings. A report by the International Energy Agency.

www.iea.org

Which definitely seems like it's a cumulative total?
"Over 26 million electric cars were on the road in 2022"
(they're including PHEVs as electric in that 26m)

Thanks for the new URL.

The source I was using might have been cumulative but it was also PHEV + BEV so I had to back the PHEV numbers out.

The source you linked seems to be BEV only so that saves effort even if there is no cumulative issue to consider (but I think that was an issue also).

I'll use data from there and redo the forward portion. Unfortunately the 2023 numbers are partial year so I'll have to drop it in on my projected and not mark it as actual full year data. Then I'll have to revise again after the year ends.

 

[Speedr117]

And now we have a video interview combining all three in a discussion. Haven't watched it yet, but I'll get to it soon.

That was AWESOME! Felt like the first Avengers movie: Tech plus British plus Car Reviewer. Wish it went longer...

 

[UkNorthampton]

This is @Troy 's interpretation, but the numbers are real:
View attachment 997629
Source:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1733007854548705524

Figures exclude at least one new "European" country, Turkey. Many thousands of Berlin built Model Y. If cars go to Turkey (Taiwan etc), they can't be sold in the "European" countries listed. Supply constrained explains "sales" declines in a subset of destination markets.

Where are Turkish and Taiwan Model Y sales accounted for in such reporting?

 

[Electroman]

Here is my last update on the three early access Cybertruck reviews. I forgot to do the update yesterday, so there is a row missing from the chart.

This is views of each video in millions. If you have missed watching any of them, I recommend all three. But especially don't miss Hagerty. Just click the links in the headers.

Date	Top Gear	Hagerty	Marques Brownlee
12/3/2023	2.0	2.8	9.7
12/4/2023	2.4	3.3	12.0
12/5/2023	2.8	3.7	14.0
12/6/2023	3.1	4.0	15.0
12/8/2023	3.5	4.3	17.0

Between the three, we now have almost 25 million total views. This is magnificent free advertising that other automakers could only dream of.

And now, Marques Brownlee's Cybertruck video has cracked his all-time top 5. It is tied with a video from six months ago and the Cybertruck video has only been out there 7 days.

Here are his top 5:

1. Retro Tech: Game Boy - 39M views - 4 years ago
2. Samsung Galaxy Fold Unboxing: Magnets - 23M views - 4 years ago
3. OnePlus 5 Review: Right On the Money! - 21M views - 5 years ago
4. Apple iPhone X Unboxing! - 18M views - 6 years ago
5. Apple Vision Pro Impressions! - 17M views - 6 months ago

(tie) 5. Driving Tesla Cybertruck: Everything You Need to Know! - 17M views - 7 days ago!!!

The reach of MKBHD is just astounding and scary.

How many watch a 30s Super Bowl commercial? And how much is spent in creating and airing an Ad ?

 

[Webeevdrivers]

So you/they call full 3D environment interpolation from car cameras a "nicer GUI"?

I don’t have a good technical vocabulary. I tend to use the words “thingy” and “watchamacallit” a lot as well.

 

[The Accountant]

Figures exclude at least one new "European" country, Turkey. Many thousands of Berlin built Model Y. If cars go to Turkey (Taiwan etc), they can't be sold in the "European" countries listed. Supply constrained explains "sales" declines in a subset of destination markets.

Where are Turkish and Taiwan Model Y sales accounted for in such reporting?

Agree
My data show that Model Y production in China and Berlin through November (first 2 months of Q4) are running higher than Q1, Q2 and Q3 for the same time period.
If Model Y Q4 deliveries in Europe come in lower it means that cars were directed to other regions or cars are in transit (or both).
Pointing to Europe as weak may be the macro version of the "but look at Norway" pronouncement.

 

[Todd Burch]

Agree
My data show that Model Y production in China and Berlin through November (first 2 months of Q4) are running higher than Q1, Q2 and Q3 for the same time period.
If Model Y Q4 deliveries in Europe come in lower it means that cars were directed to other regions or cars are in transit (or both).
Pointing to Europe as weak may be the macro version of the "but look at Norway" pronouncement.

AND they just announced Model Y is sold out for the year.

 

[scaesare]

I brought the original claim/concern to this forum from the comments under a CleanTechnica article.
It did indeed refer to corrosion, and they mentioned the salted roads / the salty water mist thrown up by cars on highways in the northern US during winter.
If none of that corrodes copper, as has been indicated here (particularly if that copper wire is insulated/sealed), the concern is a nonstarter.
I am certainly not concerned at this point. 75% less copper = damn good use of our money and resources.

I appreciate all the informative posts on this, question answered, but now it may be time to rewire retire this topic.

My bad, indeed your post did refer to rust and oxidization. I had mis-remembered the post. That's what I get for not going back and looking first.

But I agree with the other commenters as well... not an issue to be concerned about.

 

[scaesare]

Elon doesn't want the competition poaching our best engineers with monster pay packages. Easier to just give it away.

I don't get he impression it's an employee retention thing.

The patent open sourcing wouldn't really do anything for that, as even if you had an ex-employee recreate it a competitor, a patentented design would require licensing it to use. And certainly, opening the roadster design up from 15 years ago isn't going to do much with regards current employees...

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Dec 4, 2023

235.75

Dec 8, 2023

243.84

Not too shabby - $8.09 gain for $TSLA for the week.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Those are not 3D car models. Notice the layering, or striation--like limestone layers, as you move vertically up the car. This appears to be using some new approach we haven't seen before--or perhaps a much more refined version of the volumetric space-filling algorithms Tesla's been using for FSD?

Yes, Tesla Vision introduced a new data type a few months ago to make variable resolution voxels (volumentric pixels). This aids data compression for distant objects without lossing compute performance for nearby (relevant) objects. But it won't matter, I heard from my dog's uncle he only listens to ultrasonic frequecies...

Cheers!

 

[aubreymcfato]

The reach of MKBHD is just astounding and scary.

How many watch a 30s Super Bowl commercial? And how much is spent in creating and airing an Ad ?

and wait until you learn who Mr.Beast is...jokes aside, don't forget that views are always overcounted, and also that the spending power and conversion rate of a video dedicated to kids and one for adults.

This is not to say that a MKBHD video is not equivalent (or superior) than a Superbowl ad. I'm sure these Cybertruck videos will gain thousands of customers in the coming months.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Dec 4, 2023

235.75

Dec 8, 2023

243.84

Not too shabby - $8.09 gain for $TSLA for the week from Monday to Friday

Dec 1, 2023: $238.83
Dec 8, 2023: $243.84

Suspiciously close to Options 'break point' - $5.01 gain for $TSLA for the week, but how much for Options market makers?

We'll never know how much MMs extract from the Market each week. That information is ultra-enigma-secret level sugar. But the CFO sells shares to pay income taxes? That sugar is posted on a Form 4 the day of.

Rigged casino, from New York to Chicago to Toronto to London. All corrupt. Netflix should make a movie. Oh wait...

 

[capster]

I'd hate to see their worst idea.

For Bernstein, Bernstein’s best idea is for you to short TSLA and their worst idea is for Bernstein to continue to short TSLA.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Guess what folks, Tesla is *seriously* underrating the tri-motor Cybertruck, according to *physics*:

Wt: 6,843 lbs curb wt +175 lbs pax =7,018 lbs est'd test wt​

0-60 mph performace (measured) = 2.6 sec​

Let's run that through the carspecs.us 0-60 mph calculator to solve for power:



Yeah, that's 1341 hp at the actual wheels. Does that number sound vaguely familar, not random?

Yeah, CyberBeast has 1 MEGAWATT of power.

Oofdah!

#predict

 

[Dutchie]

Q3: Reduced due to switchover to Highland
Q4: Reduced due to backlog in China as a result of switchover from Highland.

Don't know if any of this is accurate...point is that Troy's post is just one interpretation. He's makes it sound like there's a simple explanation, and he knows what it is.

It's not like the sensors were just removed in January. It's not like interest rates skyrocketed this year or anything...

All I know is that TSLAQ is having a field day with Troy’s post.

 

[EQC_]

But that doesn't explain the decrease in Q2 and Q3, does it? M3 is just Q4.
I actually think is a great car and will "steal" Model Y sales. But I hoped to see a combined demand, not cannibalization...
Maybe Troy overreacts, but it's very reasonable to think that lack of USS is driving some sales away from Tesla.
Every other brand in the price range has them.

*Edited just to note that UkNorthampton Ninja'd this idea above...and also brought up deliveries to Turkey being outside the EU also. .

I don't know the precise details/dates, but haven't there been many changes in Tesla's production and delivery strategy over the past year or so?

For example, Model Y sales decreases in Europe could be due (in some part) to:

• Giga China production previously sent to Europe now sent elsewhere.
  • For example, due to US battery and EV production credit changes, didn't Tesla refocus Fremont and Texas production to be more US-only? And now Giga China feeds Teslas to Canada? Could that reduce previous shipments of Teslas from China to Europe?
• Giga Berlin production sent elsewhere
  • Didn't Giga Berlin start shipping to Taiwan and perhaps other countries too over the past year? Could that decrease deliveries in Europe?

As new markets open, or the rules change in existing markets, the company might shift production or deliveries from one area to another.

Tesla has always said that they don't release monthly delivery numbers or regional delivery numbers because people read to much into the changes and draw incorrect conclusions....and now we have sleuths digging in to calculate those numbers, and drawing their own conclusions, and leading the rest of us to speculate.

 

[larmor]

Guess what folks, Tesla is *seriously* underrating the tri-motor Cybertruck, according to *physics*:

Wt: 6,843 lbs curb wt +175 lbs pax =7,018 lbs est'd test wt​

0-60 mph performace (measured) = 2.6 sec​

Let's run that through the carspecs.us 0-60 mph calculator to solve for power:

View attachment 997737

Yeah, that's 1341 hp at the actual wheels. Does that number sound vaguely familar, not random?

Yeah, CyberBeast has 1 MEGAWATT of power.

Oofdah!

#predict

Also the tires have a high rolling resistance and obviously suboptimal for quick acceleration.