Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Surfer of Life]

I just finished it and I am extremely impressed. I watch a ton of Tesla YouTube content. Way more than I probably should. And this is the best video I've seen in quite awhile.

This guy has tremendous experience as an auto industry analyst and M&A specialist.

There are a lot of nuggets in here that explain a lot of Elon's thinking and strategy. An interesting bit of advice he has for Elon is not to buy back shares but to do the exact opposite.

That's right, he suggests a new funding round to raise more capital. Please don't post your opposition until you watch the whole video. I don't know if he's right but his arguments are very persuasive.

In fact, it's so good that I'm going to watch it again.

Did he say something about “fund raising now while the price (stock price(?) is high”?

 

[Surfer of Life]

When and how much economic affect do we expect from increasing weapons and war related manufacturing because of Ukraine and maybe Israeli wars? Won’t that boost the economy and stock prices across the board?

 

[navguy12]

Good idea. And why not make them multipurpose? A tesla delivery center should also be a servcie center, and a showroom and a supercharging destination. As many as possible could be Tesla diners.
Taking a car for a service is a chore, so why not eliminate that?
Also, if a supercharger at a service/delivery center is open to non Tesla drivers, they get to see not only the charging network, but the delivery & service experience as well.
Stick a Tesla bot prototype on display in each Tesla diner too! (Talking of which, if Tesla bots could ever be trusted to deliver food at the Tesla diner, that would be the best advertising imaginable).

Stick a Tesla bot prototype on display in each Tesla diner too! (Talking of which, if Tesla bots could ever be trusted to deliver food at the Tesla diner, that would be the best advertising imaginable).

These robots come from the kitchen and show up at your table; the server then removes the food from the robot and puts it on your table…so V0.5.

 

[woof]

I can't wait until Monday when we'll get back to talking about more relevant topics and stop beating this poor Swedish horse to death

Why wait? Hey @Krugerrand, hows your mom, and what does she think of all this?

 

[AudubonB]

@navguy12
I can't wait until Monday when we'll get back to talking about more relevant topics and stop beating this poor Swedish horse to death

Ask and ye shall have the cudgels disappear.

Mod:
Absent verifiable NEWS regarding Tesla and IF Metall, all posting of same is to occur in the thread dedicated to dead-horse flogging. No more here, tak.

 

[Krugerrand]

Why wait? Hey @Krugerrand, hows your mom, and what does she think of all this?

She’s on room quarantine with COVID and her response isn’t within forum rules.

 

[Usain]

Did he say something about “fund raising now while the price (stock price(?) is high”?

Yes. Like Elon, he thinks there is significant macro risk right now. And car companies need all the cash they can get in such times.

So his argument is that when cars stop selling, it's very hard for a car company to reduce costs quickly. Earnings go negative and you need a lot of cash to weather the storm. He talked about how Ford raised a ton of cash just before the great recession and they were able to avoid bankruptcy.

As a shareholder, I wouldn't mind if Elon took his advice. He suggests raising $20 billion, which he says would only be a 3% hit to the stock. If that's true, it sounds like cheap insurance.

 

[GhostSkater]

Take with a Everest sized grain of salt, also due to OP being a new Reddit account

Key points from various comments:

• Tri Motor starts at $79,999 and goes up to 98,990 + FSD (no idea why the 19K variance for the same trim, BS detector lighting up, OP says tires, lightbar, toolbox, vault ramp and mid gate opening, unless last one means rear window opening, BS detector lights even brighter)
• 10-15 trucks being delivered at Austin
• Range estimated at 510 miles and 300 miles towing (towing what?)
• If any option is added you won't take delivery right away on Nov 30

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/17jfxvc

 

[Usain]

View attachment 986385

These robots come from the kitchen and show up at your table; the server then removes the food from the robot and puts it on your table…so V0.5.

I few weeks ago, I ate at a restaurant in Atlanta that has these same kind of bots. They system worked very well.

I think Optimus could easily take the place of the human servers who move the food from the robot to the table.

Training Optimus is going to be very expensive at first. I wonder what the first practical application will be. Food service is a good candidate.

 

[2Pearls]

Yes. Like Elon, he thinks there is significant macro risk right now. And car companies need all the cash they can get in such times.

So his argument is that when cars stop selling, it's very hard for a car company to reduce costs quickly. Earnings go negative and you need a lot of cash to weather the storm. He talked about how Ford raised a ton of cash just before the great recession and they were able to avoid bankruptcy.

As a shareholder, I wouldn't mind if Elon took his advice. He suggests raising $20 billion, which he says would only be a 3% hit to the stock. If that's true, it sounds like cheap insurance.

But unlike Elon, he does not think we are headed for a recession.

 

[Drumheller]

But unlike Elon, he does not think we are headed for a recession.

Thanks. I have started watching and wondering if I should keep going. That comment about recession and then, in the first 7 minutes, he says that Tesla and Toyota are best positioned to survive the transition to electric.

Doubting the value of this hour long interview

 

[Usain]

Thanks. I have started watching and wondering if I should keep going. That comment about recession and then, in the first 7 minutes, he says that Tesla and Toyota are best positioned to survive the transition to electric.

Doubting the value of this hour long interview

Trust me. It's worth a listen. I don't agree with him on Toyota either. I just don't see how Toyota can catch up.

He explains his reasoning later and I'm pretty sure he knows more about Toyota than anyone here. So while I might not agree, I don't dismiss him.

 

[dhanson865]

Thanks. I have started watching and wondering if I should keep going. That comment about recession and then, in the first 7 minutes, he says that Tesla and Toyota are best positioned to survive the transition to electric.

Doubting the value of this hour long interview

He didn't say or imply Toyota would stay as large as it is now. He just said they would survive (defined as not going bankrupt or being artificially supported by the government).

He said they keep costs low and would be able to survive, just survive.

I don't know if he is right, but he made it sound like Tesla was the only one coming out ahead even with Toyota surviving.

 

[mongo]

Take with a Everest sized grain of salt, also due to OP being a new Reddit account

Key points from various comments:

• Tri Motor starts at $79,999 and goes up to 98,990 + FSD (no idea why the 19K variance for the same trim, BS detector lighting up, OP says tires, lightbar, toolbox, vault ramp and mid gate opening, unless last one means rear window opening, BS detector lights even brighter)
• 10-15 trucks being delivered at Austin
• Range estimated at 510 miles and 300 miles towing (towing what?)
• If any option is added you won't take delivery right away on Nov 30

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/17jfxvc

VIN check digit is wrong (can't be A)

 

[RobStark]

 

[MC3OZ]

He didn't say or imply Toyota would stay as large as it is now. He just said they would survive (defined as not going bankrupt or being artificially supported by the government).

He said they keep costs low and would be able to survive, just survive.

I don't know if he is right, but he made it sound like Tesla was the only one coming out ahead even with Toyota surviving.

If he is saying Toyota has a poor strategy, but excellent execution, I agree. Given the right strategy the Toyota managers, engineers and factory workers can execute it.

My perception is the Toyota team are all hard working team players prepared to make individual sacrifices for the good of the team.

On the subject of raising money I think Tesla has other levers. Expanding the Megapack business is capex efficient, and that is a fairly recession proof area of the business. At Austin in particular a lot of expansion is in the pipeline, I like to think that some of that is partially paid for., The investment in AI compute is probably sufficient for now. Tesla still have more headroom to cut prices if necessary...

Rather than raising money to buffer the business they could raise funds to provide more car leases at good rates.. Increasing the pool of funds to back car leases would be a good idea.

There is also the IRA which will kick in and probably provide more help to Tesla than any other car maker..

Once it is certain that a recession is happening, I think interest rate cuts will happen fairly fast...

IMO the video was excellent, it was a new perspective backed by research and experience, that was more right than wrong.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I am sure fossil fuel strategists are high fiving each other

This party keeps going on, long after the guests have gone home.

 

[hobbes]

More bad news from Volkswagen, good software is hard:

Software-Bremse: Neue Elektroautos aus VW-Konzern verzögern sich laut Bericht weiter

Software verzögert den Start neuer Elektroautos aus dem VW-Konzern immer weiter. Jetzt soll die Tochter Cariad Stellenstreichungen planen.

teslamag-de.translate.goog

 

[Maarten]

If this Chinese paper is correct, good investor news:
It looks like Tesla will not be part of the EU probe looking into China’s EV subsidies.
According to the South China Morning Post, the EU is not focusing on Tesla, but rather on three Chinese manufacturers: BYD, SAIC Motor, and Geely.

 

[unk45]

Trust me. It's worth a listen. I don't agree with him on Toyota either. I just don't see how Toyota can catch up.

He explains his reasoning later and I'm pretty sure he knows more about Toyota than anyone here. So while I might not agree, I don't dismiss him.

Maybe not. There are at least two people here who have had large responsibilities at Toyota.
In context Toyota historically has been quite adept at changing business focus when the circumstances are forced on them. They’ve had some blunders too, NUMMI being classic. They are numerous cases in which JV or other solutions appear suddenly to solve issues. The Tesla RAV4 and Fremont were typical Toyota. Like that one they don’t always get it right.

I believe, contrary to many here, that both Toyota and Stellantis can and might ‘pull rabbits from their hats’. Neither show positive NA results, although some potential exists.
without arguing to those who are dismissive I think there is a decent chance for both.
In the Toyota case the evidence is likely to be seen by the breakdown of ‘gerontracia’ coupled with Japanese policy changes. Those are possible perhaps not highly probable.
Stellantis, OTOH, has major EU pressure but mitigated by VAG etc. recalcitrance.