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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Take with a Everest sized grain of salt, also due to OP being a new Reddit account

Key points from various comments:
  • Tri Motor starts at $79,999 and goes up to 98,990 + FSD (no idea why the 19K variance for the same trim, BS detector lighting up, OP says tires, lightbar, toolbox, vault ramp and mid gate opening, unless last one means rear window opening, BS detector lights even brighter)
  • 10-15 trucks being delivered at Austin
  • Range estimated at 510 miles and 300 miles towing (towing what?)
  • If any option is added you won't take delivery right away on Nov 30
Not saying the poster is correct, but $20grand worth of add ones doesn’t sound wrong to me. Starting price just makes the cut off with the government. Add on extra cost interior colors, ramp in lift gate, off road wheels ,tires extra ac outlets, class 3 hitch and you can get to $100,000 easy.
 
If he is saying Toyota has a poor strategy, but excellent execution, I agree. Given the right strategy the Toyota managers, engineers and factory workers can execute it.

My perception is the Toyota team are all hard working team players prepared to make individual sacrifices for the good of the team.

On the subject of raising money I think Tesla has other levers. Expanding the Megapack business is capex efficient, and that is a fairly recession proof area of the business. At Austin in particular a lot of expansion is in the pipeline, I like to think that some of that is partially paid for., The investment in AI compute is probably sufficient for now. Tesla still have more headroom to cut prices if necessary...

Rather than raising money to buffer the business they could raise funds to provide more car leases at good rates.. Increasing the pool of funds to back car leases would be a good idea.

There is also the IRA which will kick in and probably provide more help to Tesla than any other car maker..

Once it is certain that a recession is happening, I think interest rate cuts will happen fairly fast...

IMO the video was excellent, it was a new perspective backed by research and experience, that was more right than wrong.

He was very knowledgeable and experienced!

He was saying two things about Toyota: the market has deemed them as being able to survive the transition (market cap, only car company to increase in value around 5% per year - less the S&P 500 though, so he said not a long term asset to hold), and that their real strength was being a low cost leader in production and supply chains.

The rest of the interview was definitely worth a listen. He really understands the car industry. Probably the best I've seen from an institutional perspective.
 
Not saying the poster is correct, but $20grand worth of add ones doesn’t sound wrong to me. Starting price just makes the cut off with the government. Add on extra cost interior colors, ramp in lift gate, off road wheels ,tires extra ac outlets, class 3 hitch and you can get to $100,000 easy.
The Reddit post has many issues.
Regardless of that, hardware features as shipped from the factory are included in the MSRP that determines Clean Vehicle Credit eligibility. Tires, (paint), lift gate, hitch, etc would disqualify a $80k vehicle (unless added at the delivery center).
 
If this Chinese paper is correct, good investor news:
It looks like Tesla will not be part of the EU probe looking into China’s EV subsidies.
According to the South China Morning Post, the EU is not focusing on Tesla, but rather on three Chinese manufacturers: BYD, SAIC Motor, and Geely.
Since all three manufacture in the EU also, as does Tesla, this might just accelate those efforts. Geely, with Volvo and London, might have even less problems than the others. This looks like the leading salvo to produce, say, MG in the EU.
 
If this Chinese paper is correct, good investor news:
It looks like Tesla will not be part of the EU probe looking into China’s EV subsidies.
According to the South China Morning Post, the EU is not focusing on Tesla, but rather on three Chinese manufacturers: BYD, SAIC Motor, and Geely.

That news came out on Friday:

Tesla not included in EU probe looking into China’s EV subsidies: Report | DriveTeslaCanada.ca (2023-10-27)

 
If he is saying Toyota has a poor strategy, but excellent execution, I agree. Given the right strategy the Toyota managers, engineers and factory workers can execute it.

My perception is the Toyota team are all hard working team players prepared to make individual sacrifices for the good of the team.

On the subject of raising money I think Tesla has other levers. Expanding the Megapack business is capex efficient, and that is a fairly recession proof area of the business. At Austin in particular a lot of expansion is in the pipeline, I like to think that some of that is partially paid for., The investment in AI compute is probably sufficient for now. Tesla still have more headroom to cut prices if necessary...

Rather than raising money to buffer the business they could raise funds to provide more car leases at good rates.. Increasing the pool of funds to back car leases would be a good idea.

There is also the IRA which will kick in and probably provide more help to Tesla than any other car maker..

Once it is certain that a recession is happening, I think interest rate cuts will happen fairly fast...

IMO the video was excellent, it was a new perspective backed by research and experience, that was more right than wrong.
Overall good interview and points but I just don't buy the Toyota point.

He was using Toyota market cap as the reason they will survive. The reason they have a large market cap is they are the low cost producer of ICE vehicles.

The market was wrong with Tesla for so many years (2013-2019), the market maybe currently wrong with Toyota.

Who would actually invest in Toyota given that they will likely only see declining sales moving forward?
 
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Overall good interview and points but I just don't buy the Toyota point.

He was using Toyota market cap as the reason they will survive. The reason they have a large market cap is they are the low cost producer of ICE vehicles.

The market was wrong with Tesla for so many years (2013-2019), the market maybe currently wrong with Toyota.

Who would actually invest in Toyota given that they will likely only see declining sales moving forward?

Agreed. Everyone is focusing on the Toyota part. The rest of the interview was great and worth a listen!
 
...Training Optimus is going to be very expensive at first. I wonder what the first practical application will be. Food service is a good candidate.
Good thought, but I disagree. I doubt they will be customer-facing at first. Too easy for customers to maliciously trip the bot or otherwise express anti-Tesla, pro-worker sentiment ("haha! Sorry! hahaha!")

Widespread expectation they'll start with menial, non-time-sensitive tasks in a Gigafactory. After that? Maybe dangerous (fumes, radiation?) or unliked jobs (sewage)..?

Random thought: I was babysitting my 3 yo grandson last week. He loves construction sites, and there's 4 within walking distance of my home. Imagine the opportunity for Optimus "extensions". Imagine Optimus operating a construction crane (can work non-stop plugged in, no bathroom or lunch breaks with climbs up and down), and can interface with remote cameras and ground-level distance sensors to more accurately place objects being lifted (and reduce labour required).

I realize it's not a likely early contender, but the idea is that Optimus can a) be powered when non-mobile and b) integrate remote sensors better than a person is a powerful use case. I'm sure there's better examples of this than a crane operator, but you get the idea.
 
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Overall good interview and points but I just don't buy the Toyota point.

He was using Toyota market cap as the reason they will survive. The reason they have a large market cap is they are the low cost producer of ICE vehicles.

The market was wrong with Tesla for so many years (2013-2019), the market maybe currently wrong with Toyota.

Who would actually invest in Toyota given that they will likely only see declining sales moving forward?

I agree. It was a good interview, BUT his faith in Toyota seems misplaced to me. Toyota is behind the transition, and just because the market values them highly today does NOT mean Toyota can transition to EV's in an effective manner. And if they can't make the transition then Toyota's future is very bleak.

Also, Nick states how he does not like it when auto makers try to diversify and do things other than make autos. Tesla is different than what other OEM's have tried in the past though. Tesla is very vertically integrated and all of their non-auto projects link together to the rest of their business in multitudes of ways.

Thought provoking interview, but I do have issues with some of Nick's reasonings.
 
When and how much economic affect do we expect from increasing weapons and war related manufacturing because of Ukraine and maybe Israeli wars? Won’t that boost the economy and stock prices across the board?
Positive but relatively small and delayed effect (most aid is from inventory, so effect delayed until rebuild happens).
 
If this Chinese paper is correct, good investor news:
It looks like Tesla will not be part of the EU probe looking into China’s EV subsidies.
According to the South China Morning Post, the EU is not focusing on Tesla, but rather on three Chinese manufacturers: BYD, SAIC Motor, and Geely.

Interesting, but not sure about your conclusion - from the article:
Brussels is instead focused on three Chinese-owned manufacturers, seeking to level the playing field for European EV makers. But this does not mean Tesla is off the hook.

Should the EU investigation turn up evidence of subsidies, the bloc would calculate an average countervailing duty to be applied to all EV imports from China – including cars made in China by Tesla and European-owned models such as Volkswagen and BMW, it was understood.

I would draw the conclusion that this is especially unfair, even if an automaker would be found to not have gotten subsidies in China, he would be subject to the same duty when importing to the EU :(. I guess this is probably a result of the fact that duties are usually applied to imports from a certain country, not for a certain manufacturer.
 
Well, at the current discounted price I HAD to do something. The couches had been picked clean and the local banks seem well protected, so I've gone ahead and made the transfer of shares from the IRA Rollover account to the IRA ROTH.

After thoroughly researching the angles based upon the SSA and IRS playbooks there is an easy way to tally how many shares a retired person in the US with no income can transfer and avoid being taxed on the "income" when moving the shares out of the Rollover account.

The simplest solution is to determine the number of shares equal in value to the holder's IRS Standard Deduction at the current SP.

I've set an alert on my calendar to remind me to do this again next year.

More details and a place for discussion can be found HERE.
 
I few weeks ago, I ate at a restaurant in Atlanta that has these same kind of bots. They system worked very well.

I think Optimus could easily take the place of the human servers who move the food from the robot to the table.

Training Optimus is going to be very expensive at first. I wonder what the first practical application will be. Food service is a good candidate.
By practical are you excluding the initial applications in Tesla factories?
 
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In the Toyota case the evidence is likely to be seen by the breakdown of ‘gerontracia’ coupled with Japanese policy changes. Those are possible perhaps not highly probable.
Stellantis, OTOH, has major EU pressure but mitigated by VAG etc. recalcitrance.

You sound a bit like Audubon here ;)... Friendly reminder to stick to simple language for me and others who did not grow up speaking English.