Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SO16]

So F and GM are on strike and they are up.

Tesla is down.

Yeah… that makes sense.

 

[bkp_duke]

So F and GM are on strike and they are up.

Tesla is down.

Yeah… that makes sense.

Yeah, can't make this *sugar* up. Simulation.

 

[Stormy24]

Yeah, can't make this *sugar* up. Simulation.

They think the share price is going up 30% not the wages.

 

[Darkfox021]

Looks like that is the case

https://twitter.com/x/status/1702518536110027195

Because Cybertruck will suck all the cells it can, it will likely use more than double the number of cells the Model Y can

Makes more sense to go back to just make Model Y 2170 than limit Cybertruck production due to lack of cells, Model Y numbers won't suffer much since they have plenty of 2170s now that Megapack is LFP but Cybertruck will without Kato Rd doing cells for it while Texas ramps

I meant that there is no reason to cancel the 4060 Model Y if the cells were not viable for Cybertruck. Basically what mongo said.

 

[Todd Burch]

Ford, Stellantis, and GM are ALL up this morning, LOL.

Welcome to Bizzaro World!

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA down 1.5% and GM up 2% on news of a UAW strike

GM CEO Mary Barra on UAW strike: We put a historic offer on the table | CNBC Television (1 hr ago)

 

[mongo]

'There can be only one', until Elon announced GA4 on June 16, 2018: (GA1+2 were for S/X)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1008081295090450432

Fun Fact: Ryan McCaffrey from the 'Ride the Lightning' Podcast thinks he might have received this 1st production Model 3 P.

#11,500 (June 18, 2018) One TMC'er had family working on the new GA4 line. Great story of triumph over adversity.

Cheers!

Yeah GA4, and S/X didn't combine until pre Y. However, Issacson (who does have other factual issues), Ars, and NYT call out two indoor Model 3 lines and one sprung.

The short-sellers, with their spies and drones, determined that there was no way the factory, with its two assembly lines, could get to that number [5k/wk]. They also knew that there was no way for Tesla to build another factory, or even get a permit to do so, for at least a year.

Inside Tesla’s ‘tent’-based Model 3 line that set a path to profitability
During the second quarter, Tesla struggled to ramp Model 3 output using the vehicle’s two assembly lines inside the Fremont factory itself.

Inside Tesla’s Audacious Push to Reinvent the Way Cars Are Made (Published 2018)
The semi-permanent structure houses a third assembly line — part of a desperate effort to speed up production of the Model 3, the car that Elon Musk, Tesla’s chief executive, has said is critical to the company’s financial health and immediate future.

So what's the deal?
GA3 is two lines:

Tesla employees say the main Model 3 production line has been shutting down early
Typically, a worker told Business Insider, a shift is only sent home early because it met its goals for a period of time or because there is a problem that is making it impossible to assemble more vehicles. For example, one of the two lines on GA3 might be sent home if there is a problem that has prevented the progression of assembling vehicles for hours.
In this case, both lines were sent home, with the entire GA3 line leaving early. According to a factory worker, the reason was not because the company had hit its production goals for the day.

The tent was the second general assembly area for the 3, but the third general assembly line. This matches up with the comments that it was better than the (de)automated lines and accounted for a 50% boost in production.

Inside Tesla’s ‘tent’-based Model 3 line that set a path to profitability
Tesla’s “tent”-based Model 3 assembly line was featured in Elon Musk’s recent segment on CBS’ 60 Minutes. While speaking with correspondent Leslie Stahl, Musk remarked that the assembly line, which took only three weeks to set up, was responsible for boosting Model 3 production by 50%. That was enough to push the company to reach its self-imposed 5,000 Model 3 per week target in the second quarter. Elon Musk has noted that Tesla is now at a point when it could produce 5,000 Model 3 per week without any problems. Before the company reached this point, though, it had to pass through a period that Musk personally described as “production hell.” During the second quarter, Tesla struggled to ramp Model 3 output using the vehicle’s two assembly lines inside the Fremont factory itself. When it was evident that this could not be achieved, Tesla did the unexpected — it built a third Model 3 line (GA4) to augment its output.

 

[2daMoon]

Yeah, can't make this *sugar* up. Simulation.

There may be the slightest scent of Burnt Hair wafting through the simulation if Shorty further extends their sale of imaginary shares to help massage the SP lower.

As for me, I await the inevitable happy ending for the HODLorians. This is the way

 

[Paul_SF]

Yeah, can't make this *sugar* up. Simulation.

You misspelled Manipulation.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Possible alternate explanation: 4680s are performing poorly. We already know Tesla has these vehicles charging at around half the rate of 2170/18650 packs. I wouldn’t be eager to introduce a new product line (cybertruck) with a gimped charging rate, particularly a product that is insanely high-profile and going to so many EV first-timers.

4680s “performing poorly”, as in gimped Supercharger profiles might just be intentional on Tesla’s part, and temporary. When the Model S first came out, they had very conservative charging profiles, but as they got back field data, they increased charging speeds dramatically. Maybe they are doing the same with 4680, just being cautious until they acquire enough field data.

 

[GhostSkater]

I meant that there is no reason to cancel the 4060 Model Y if the cells were not viable for Cybertruck. Basically what mongo said.

My take is, the ramp they predict for Cybertruck will require more cells than what the ramp of 4680 production at Texas will be able to supply, they need and want to ramp Cybertruck fast due to the fixed costs of having a full staffed production line being limited (Hi Mary and Hummer EV)

In this case converting Kato to 4680 V2 helps with that and barely hurts Model Y production since there is other lines and factories to pick up the slack, or as I said, might not even hurt at all since it's likely they have excess 2170 cells, so Texas production of Model Y will stay the same

Another possibility with no source whatsoever, 4680 V2 will go into Model Y, but with the 10% energy increase it will have the same pack size as the regular 2170 Model Y LR

75.9 kWh + 10% = 83.5 kWh, 2170 Model 3/Y is 82 kWh, seems like a strong possibility, if not now, in the future when 4680s exist in abundance. If performance is the same, the average customer won't and don't care what cells the vehicle has

 

[Todd Burch]

GM CEO Mary Barra on UAW strike: We put a historic offer on the table | CNBC Television (1 hr ago)

So Barra says GM's EVs are in high demand right now. That doesn't quite jive with reality, does it?

 

[Cosmacelf]

'There can be only one', until Elon announced GA4 on June 16, 2018: (GA1+2 were for S/X)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1008081295090450432

Fun Fact: Ryan McCaffrey from the 'Ride the Lightning' Podcast thinks he might have received this 1st production Model 3 P.

#11,500 (June 18, 2018) One TMC'er had family working on the new GA4 line. Great story of triumph over adversity.

Just read an anecdote in the biography that they used an old conveyer belt system that wasn’t powerful enough to move the cars, so they installed it in the direction of a slight downgrade in the abandoned parking lot they were using, and that worked. Talk about slapping something together! Also, they used a loophole in the Fremont permitting rules that allowed for tents to be erected for car maintenance, usually as used in gas stations for car detailing. So they just used a really big tent. I love stories like this!

 

[Artful Dodger]

So F and GM are on strike and they are up.

Tesla is down.

Yeah… that makes sense.

It does, once you realize today is a triple-witching Friday. Big 3 have Little fee option contracts expiring today on the CBOE.

 

[betstarship]

Umm....YES!

I stay away from that and just share tsla news to make them more insightful about a great investment opportunity. There's been a few I explicitly tell to invest in tsla, but when I have such an outsized gain and continue to have an outsized bet on it...even given my life circumstances...things make sense

 

[Stretch2727]

Ford, Stellantis, and GM are ALL up this morning, LOL.

Welcome to Bizzaro World!

Likely because the UAW did not strike at the engine and transmission plants. In the past they have used this strategy to cascade shutdowns of all the assembly plants. By doing this they shutdown everything but allow many employees to still collect unemployment as they technically not on strike but temporarily laid off due to a "supply shortage".

The 3 assembly plants they shut down will just effect the vehicles they assemble. It will have an effect, but the big 3 will still be able to produce other vehicles in other assembly plants. It's not nearly as bad as what was expected hence the positive reaction.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

So Barra says GM's EVs are in high demand right now. That doesn't quite jive with reality, does it?

Relative to production they are in high demand.
Bolt EUV USA 2023 Q2 was 2,839 per month.
Bolt EV USA 2023 Q2 was 1,814 per month, Canada 1,296 per month. That's close to 6k per month, matching max production.
(And you can't get the best value Bolt EV (1LT + Comfort + Safety) for love nor money. It's all base, 2LT, or EUV)

This reminds me _so_ much of the Model X ramp, but GM isn't getting hammered in the press on this anywhere near as much as it should. GM is banking on Ultium and it's not yet delivering. If it overcomes the problems it'll be in better shape than many others, but if not it's toast.

Similarly, Tesla needs 4680, but it's in a better position currently so has more time. But still, no 4680 and it'll be China's beach right up until CATL gets its own EV company and there's no benefit to feeding Tesla.

 

[SO16]

Likely because the UAW did not strike and engine and transmission plants. In the past they have used this strategy to cascade shutdowns of all the assembly plants. By doing this they shutdown everything but allow many employees to still collect unemployment as they technically not on strike but temporarily laid off due to a "supply shortage".

The 3 assembly plants they shut down will just effect the vehicles they assemble. It will have an effect, but the big 3 will still be able to produce other vehicles in other assembly plants. It's not nearly as bad as what was expected hence the positive reaction.

Produce? Yes…. For a little while.

Deliver?

Teamsters won't deliver Detroit 3 vehicles if UAW strikes

Teamsters Local 299 President Kevin Moore said, "I understand their struggles and their issues." Truck drivers will not cross a picket line.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Cosmacelf]

UAW

Deepwater's Gene Munster on Tesla Wages, UAW Negotiations | Deepwater Asset Management (1 hr ago)

Gene is not saying anything that isn’t obvious here. Even after factoring in wage increases that Tesla will have to make in response to whatever generous pay increase UAW workers will eventually get, Tesla will enjoy an even bigger wage gap (Ie they pay their manufacturing workers less). Tesla can do this for a couple of reasons (not mentioned by Gene). First, their pay package include stock options which might actually be worth something. This drags on TSLA GAAP earnings, but it well worth the EPS hit. Second, without a union in the middle, Tesla can offer a work environment that is more appealing to younger workers, and the US workforce is decidedly shifting from older to younger as the big baby boomer demographic bulge retire.

Btw, anyone here invested in Deepwater? They are fundraising for their second VC fund right now and I’m considering throwing a few bucks their way. Their fund is small, but because Gene has such an outsized presence on the TV networks and such, they punch way above their weight in being able to get in on early stage hot startups. For instance, they are an investor in JB Straubel’s Redwood.

 

[Stretch2727]

Produce? Yes…. For a little while.

Deliver?

Teamsters won't deliver Detroit 3 vehicles if UAW strikes

Teamsters Local 299 President Kevin Moore said, "I understand their struggles and their issues." Truck drivers will not cross a picket line.

finance.yahoo.com

The strike and picket lines are just at the 3 assembly plants. The teamsters will still deliver and pick up at the non striking plants as there will not be picket lines at the non striking plants.

It's a quite limited strike for now....let's see if it gets escalated.