Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Are people in this thread not allowed to post critical or even possibly negative reactions to things Tesla does? Because nothing I've seen StarFox post today warrants a response anything close to that which I've quoted above (emphasis mine).

Perhaps you think calling Tesla and/or Elon a "Moron" isn't offensive, or is some way acceptable because it's just meaningless rhetoric? Well, some hard working, dedicated people are offended by such banal insults, as you should be aware. On the other hand, if it's just rhetoric to make a point or express frustration then it's self-defeating, since it self-identifies as not-to-be-taken-seriously. Which I don't.

This individual is talking past other members comments, ignoring arguments they don't believe or accept, while repeating their challenged point w/o rebuttal. That's just bad rhetoric, and would get you kicked out of court in Athens.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Without fail, when the SP drops the bandwagon of Tesla did this wrong and that wrong reaches a crescendo.

... I think you meant 'banjo'.

Cheers!

 

[CatB]

Over two years driving without stalks, took me almost 30 minutes to get used to the turn buttons.

Mod: enough about stalks... --ggr

Waitaminit - Did you just moderate yourself?
I see what you did there!!!
What a concept - if we all stayed on-topic, politely disagreed with each other, what a beautiful forum this would be.... Naahh!

But srsly, another vote for expressing opinions (as opinions, not facts, although understand contextual interpretation varies, so let's give the benefit of the doubt and not waste time taking offense unnecessarily), and having healthy dialog. I learn a lot from this little forum-addiction of mine, and hope you all stick around, or take mental health (or martini) breaks as needed.

 

[cliff harris]

Despite being an old model S driver from 2015, as an investor, I really don't care about the S or X. When they were the only cars, sure, their pricing and competitiveness and margins were a big deal, but in the land of 3 and Y (and soon CT), do we really care that much what happens with those 2 models?
Sure, when prices drop, it aggravates people who bought the day before, I get that, but I'm not sure anyone has real evidence of actual quantifiable brand damage from Tesla's historic price cuts?

The markets reaction to today is kinda silly, but I think we all MASSIVELY overestimate the extent to which so many market 'decision makers' do any research at all. I'm sure a lot of people dumping tesla stock today genuinely think the S/X are a big part of the lineup. They don't have the same understanding and perspective many of us here do.

Also worth considering that the stock is de-risked a lot after there are production CTs in people's hands. We don't know for sure the CT is a success. It might be rubbish! I doubt it, but then I'm not investing a billion dollars on behalf of some pension fund. In other words, even if some market participants liked todays' news, they might still be wary of upping their position until post cybertruck release.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Haha, who cares? Shortzes? That's a made-up care-bear talking point, neither a top-line or bottom-line metric. Tesla is immensely profitable now, wasn't in 2019. Tesla has quadrupled deliveries since 2019 too. This is the Mission. Or perhaps you know of another one that cares about 'margerine'?

View attachment 970153

Way off topic, true story. (The smart people here probably already knew this. I only found out some of this a year ago sadly).

Crisco oil was originally a submarine grease (from cottonseeds) before it came into the kitchen. But it didn't smell good and cotton seeds were the dregs of the industry where seed piles often rotted with foul smells. So they literally cooked the smell out of it, hydrogenated it into a lard consistency, bleached it... then didn't tell you what it was (other than "Crisco is Crisco" or "It's 100% Shortening"). Many of us survived that era!!!

About the only vegetable oil that won't kill you is olive oil, as long as you store it in the dark at room temp. The others are toxic and smelly by nature before you even buy them. "Vegetable Oil" is code for don't you dare cook with that grease - plus it's not the vegetables you would normally eat. The refinery process (mostly heat) on all these cooking oils is what creates the toxins... for another day.

Long story short, I only use butter, only if needed, on a ceramic pan, no Teflon (plastic). The rest is toxic so I don't give humans very much longer as a species.

 

[ggr]

Mod: We welcome all viewpoints that are reasoned and polite. A few (6) posts, I as moderator believe, crossed a dotted yellow line into insults toward other members (in both directions), but I left most discussion in place. Please keep it cool; I don't want to have to make subjective judgements. --ggr

 

[2daMoon]

While that may be true, as an investor it's still disheartening to see Tesla repeatedly shoot itself in the foot media-wise with regards to TSLA when they do not have to do so. Some staggering of the good news with the bad news could certainly be seen as reasonable?

They say that the stock market can remain irrational longer than a stock trader can remain solvent, but there isn't a catchy phrase to describe the media as concisely. Well, other than, "If it bleeds, it leads"

The media doesn't play fair, there is no scale where putting more "good" news on one side somehow balances things against the weight of tripe that passes for content. Tripe that is designed to encourage clicks and the purchase of various soap products, rather than having any inkling toward making the world a better place.

All Tesla has to do to find itself "shot in the foot" is to exist and continue to threaten the livelihood of those who both sell and purchase advertising.

Any "staggering" of "good" news merely presents another opportunity for abuse by those in the media who have developed their talents for twisting light into dark into an art-form.

Rather, Tesla simply conducts their business the way they see fit, sharing honestly when it behooves them to do so and keeping their cards close to their chest otherwise. For Tesla to fall for the allure of trying to use media releases to their benefit would be a fool's errand on par with trying to perfect autonomy using Lidar.

Every indication since I began following Tesla has inferred these instances where they share info is very likely something they have considered and determined to be the most beneficial action when compared to not doing it. They are in hostile territory, media-wise.

They are thinking longer term than are those who blast them for the effect of this or that statement's timing over the short term.

I trust their judgement, and, based on their track record compared to the companies supporting the media attacks, it seems to me they are making the right decisions.

They are a juggernaut, and Tesla's progress won't be hindered in any significant way by the minor slights as these which some feel compelled to lash out at Tesla over.

 

[cab]

Mod: We welcome all viewpoints that are reasoned and polite. A few (6) posts, I as moderator believe, crossed a dotted yellow line into insults toward other members (in both directions), but I left most discussion in place. Please keep it cool; I don't want to have to make subjective judgements. --ggr

Yeah, that whole butter v. Crisco thing was getting out of hand . Oh wait, never mind...

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

It's a big adjustment for the short term but if you zoom out it's not a price we haven't seen before.

10/13/20		$71,990
10/14/20		$69,420
01/26/21		$69,420
01/27/21		$79,990

08/31/23

$74,990

View attachment 970101

That would be fine...if costs weren't higher now than back then.

 

[Mengy]

Tesla stock has been good for all of us, and everyone has the same goal, to see it go up. How it gets there is up to debate and discussion and no one has a monopoly on that.

Well, at least good for those of us who have held it long term throughout all the noise and roller coaster rides!

 

[rallykeeper]

Interesting that most of the above conversation is focused on whether the S/X price cuts and Highland.

I'm more interested in the "dynamic" decision to introduce a new product 2 weeks ago and then kill it. Not the first time they've done that, but I think it may be the quickest?

(Real question that I can't seem to find the answer to in the other forums, did anyone actually receive a Standard Range? I don't think so since delivery was supposed to be September/October, but wanted to confirm.)

Tesla management is constantly surprising, but it seems to me that this could be argued to be impulsive as much as genius.

On the one hand, maybe they learned something about significant about demand with the introduction of a cheaper S/X (i.e., like Apple did when they slashed the price of the original iPhone shortly after launch) and decided to go all in.

On the other hand, maybe decision-making has become more chaotic at Tesla (post-Drew) and the standard range launch was a complete blunder.

Maybe a little bit of both...

None of this implicates should impact TSLA medium-term and S/X is immaterial in the big picture, but it's definitely another piece in my investment puzzle about whether Tesla management has the depth and capability to continue its rather extraordinary run of outthinking the competition. I'm more than comfortable with Tesla engineering and design. However, my long-term investment thesis also incorporates the many genius-ly aggressive business decisions they've made over the past decade.

I want Tesla management to continue with aggressive business moves and hover close to the edge -- just don't want to see them fall off.

 

[cliff harris]

On balance, I way prefer Teslas 'do a thing... its a disaster! quick undo the thing' approach to toyota's 'do a thing... its a disaster. Wait until everyone associated with it dies from old age'.

 

[Buckminster]

For those concerned that this is an echo chamber, I dunno, maybe use another thread? You will find an echo chamber to suit all needs... Nearly everything discussed today would be welcomed in one of these shared this morning:

Threads of the day:
Wiki - Selling TSLA Options - Be the House The other thread - pls don't clog up

Project Highland (Investor impact etc.) It's lux baby! (but not yet in USA)

MY 2024 Refresh - Project Juniper? Let the speculation begin!

HW4 & HW5 Discussion CT and Highland have bumper camera

EV and Battery Credits New Model X for $67,490 after incentives - anyone moving to Colorado?

FSD discussion FSD now $12k

4680 Cathode & Anode discussion for investors SiC is sick

Launch is Imminent Under the frunk look of dual motor variant CT

https://twitter.com/x/status/1697501662225604722

You could also use this thread for any S/X price reduction PR mistake:
Need for Tesla Advertising / PR
Most of these have a reasonable following and will only get better as you all individually start using them. Yes you. And you.

The fact that the media are still pimping this made-up-nonsense about a glass house, but not reporting a big update on one of the most popular EVs on earth tells you everything you need to know about the media, and wall st. They are DESPERATE to keep in the good books of the corrupt muppets who run the legacy ICE companies and oil companies. Don't expect ANY impartial reporting by these clowns.
Eventually the truth will become overwhelming. The model 3 was already an extremely competitive car, being made in true mass production numbers. It just got better, and likely easier/quicker/cheaper to build.
Its hard to believe the BS on the internet about Tesla when you find out that half a dozen people on your street now drive one.

Wall st will do its usual nonsense today, and maybe Monday, but they cant hide from the facts forever. This is a BAD day for GM, VW, Ford and Toyota.

Are you suggesting SEC are not investigating? If there was someone above ICE/oil companies that would benefit from Elon failing in the next year or so then some of this would be more easily explained. I just can't think of who that could be.

 

[SOULPEDL]

More reflection on the Highland pricing, and margarine.

Knowing there could still be a need to drop prices even more in the next year, if Tesla had released it with rock bottom pricing then there would be one less lever to control demand in the event of a macro downturn. My hope (and guess) is that there is healthy margin in the launch price. Since there is still a need to ramp from zero production on these, they certainly don't need a long backlog until the ramp matures (even if faster than usual). That would be giving them away prematurely. Plus, the true costs to produce initially are still quite high until volume kicks in - it's only low cost, on paper, in volume.

 

[Usain]

As a long-term Tesla investor, here are some things I don't care all that much about:

• Price cuts
• Project Highland
• Cybertruck
• Stalks
• Bickering on this forum
• Elon's antics

Here are some things I care a lot about:

• Ramping the auto and megapack factories
• 4680
• FSD
• Optimus
• Elon's health

 

[hooty]

For perspective, BYD hit just shy of an annualised run rate of 1.8M BEVs in August

 

[2daMoon]

For perspective, BYD hit just shy of an annualised run rate of 1.8M BEVs in August

Does that number include their Hybrid production?

 

[EVMeister]

Does that number include their Hybrid production?

Yes.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

View attachment 970130
Zoomed in
View attachment 970131

That's averaging the last 4 quarters.

Auto gross margins last quarter were what? 18%? So they are a little above pre-pandemic levels. But the further decrease in Q3 may bring them back to 2019 levels.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

These price drops, does that even work?!?

…

I just scheduled a Model S Plaid test drive for tomorrow.