Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EQC_]

Whoa - just read a report that Tesla has been taking up data center leases after Twitter stopped paying its leases on them.

Got to say, that sounds incredibly fishy - for obvious reasons.

Is there any way that this "strategy" would mean Tesla either got a better deal on the data center lease prices, or that Tesla was able to lease more data centers than would have otherwise been available on the market?

I can sort of imagine hypotheticals for either...but my imagination doesn't often mesh with reality.

 

[2daMoon]

Whoa - just read a report that Tesla has been taking up data center leases after Twitter stopped paying its leases on them.

Got to say, that sounds incredibly fishy - for obvious reasons.

Always the ray of sunshine from down under...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Weight are exactly the same so...

Tesla's website is not the final word (they've been slow to update before -- we'll have to wait for a 3rd-party weigh-in to know). I see also that top speed and acceleration are decreased. I don't know if that was the case with the previous S/X 60/75 KWh software-locked offering. Does anybody remember if the 75 was quicker/faster than the 60? Perhaps @MP3Mike

IMO, it's less likely that Tesla gives away Japanese battery cells. Why not just drop the price into the IRA eligibility range since Japan-sourced cells qualify now? Twitter quick-draw artist Sawyer Merrit doesn't provide actual evidence that the new battery isn't LFP: note that you'd expect ~20% less range and the same vehicle weight vs. a Panasonic NCA 18650 pack. LFP advantages would be 0-100% safe DOD range, plus longer lifecycle. That's very attractive with today's more densely spaced SuperCharger network. LFP would also support V2H integration with the forthcoming LFP powerwall.

Given that Tesla doesn't plan to offer to 'unlock' battery rge in the future lends credence to this being a physically different pack, possible based on LFP cells (which are now much cheaper and abundant from China). If that's the case, getting the std rge Model X base price below $80K to qualify for the IRA rebate wouldn't actually matter due to bty sourcing rules.

That alone might explain the $88K price tag for the std rge Model X. But is LFP $10K less than a Panasonic pack? $75*80 = ~$6K for an LFP pack, whereas the LR pack might be about $125*98 = ~$12K. So perhaps not quite $10K cheaper in the pack, but it's in the right neighborhood, esp. if Tesla wants to increase S/X production (a 3rd shift?) w/o needing to invest more capital in end-of-development pack production lines.

At any rate, never a dull day in Teslandia, wot?

Cheers!

 

[Buckminster]

Inflation coming from housing. Housing about to crash:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1691245514342211584

 

[MC3OZ]

Always the ray of sunshine from down under...

Kiwis are like having Brits as next door neighbours

 

[insaneoctane]

The excitement of watching TSLA has become meh of late

 

[Buckminster]

Threads of the day:
Looks like Tesla brought back the standard range Model S and X!
Off topic galore Elon waiting until Zuck returns home?
FSD discussion Elon test (on his way to Zuck) will be big + China team formation
FSD V12 (end to end AI) Will V12 Alpha be used?

CHINA’S CENTRAL BANK UNEXPECTEDLY JUST CUT INTEREST RATESTHE BANK LOWERED INTEREST RATES BY THE MOST SINCE 2020

China insurance numbers at 13,800 (Troy says "Looks good"):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1691345298852122624

 

[nativewolf]

China cutting rates is interesting, they have a moribund housing market and the largest builder is neither completing purchased units nor paying interest on bonds. That doesn't do anything to help the big builders unless it somehow gets them fresh clean cash from the govt til.

 

[Surfer of Life]

Mandatory watch for all new Tesla owners IMHO, about overheating home charging.

- As relevant to Tesla owners as cage fighting if it keeps an owner’s house from burning down.

Household electrical rated for 50 Amps at 240 Volts AC should work flawlessly at 50 Amps and 240 Volts AC, IMHO. Installation shouldn’t be rocket science, and simple rated wire connectors should not fail.

But apparently it’s just not necessarily so. I bought a simple generic outlet fixture at a big- box store to home-charge my model X Tesla (35 Amps max at 240 VAC) using the heaviest gauge copper wire it was rated for just to be safe. Imagine my surprise when simply tightening the terminal screws against the wires deformed the rickety terminals and destroyed the terminals one after the other.

TL;DW? Buy a Hubble brand outlet, but this video shows examples like a properly installed junction box and breakers that melted and burned while running at typical EV charging capacity.

Posted here for safety sake, as I stumbled upon this electrical thread on TMC, [edit]- where, I suppose, any replies to this post should go.

 

[Surfer of Life]

Inflation coming from housing. Housing about to crash:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1691245514342211584

… so is this good for TSLA??

 

[jerry33]

- As relevant to Tesla owners as cage fighting if it keeps an owner’s house from burning down.

Household electrical rated for 50 Amps at 240 Volts AC should work flawlessly at 50 Amps and 240 Volts AC, IMHO. Installation shouldn’t be rocket science, and simple rated wire connectors should not fail.

This is not correct for EV charging. EV charging is a continuous load and by code must be downgraded 20% to 40 amps maximum on a 50 amp circuit.

 

[unk45]

Indonesia says Tesla plans to invest in battery material facility

Indonesia said on Monday that U.S. electric carmaker Tesla plans to invest in the manufacturing of battery materials in the Southeast Asian country and will make an announcement in the next few months.

www.reuters.com

Perhaps something similar can be done in Brazil?

I assume there is a substantial market for energy storage batteries in Brazil?

Long term for something like Megapack it makes some sense to do mining, cell production, and battery pack manufacture close to end markets.

Otherwise, Tesla is essentially shipping a lot of heavy materials around for no good reason.

Eventually Tesla might build a vehicle factory in Brazil, but it may make more sense to do that after local cell production is well established,

Brazil cell production is fairly well-established. CATL and BYD both produce cells here, Supplying stationary storage, vehicular (primarily trucks and busses), and CATL also licenses Moura (the largest Brazilian legacy battery supplier) to produce large prismatic cells for stationary storage.
There are several domestic lithium producers, mostly in northern Minas Gerais, but refining is planned to receive large investments. Thus far Chinese are the Brazilian leaders in BEV, stationary storage and grid services.
As is now happening in many countries, notably India, Chile and others, Brazil first had utility Wind, then stationary utility storage, then a profusion of small delivery vehicles and electric bicycles, then trucks and busses while BEV cars have been growing from a tiny base. That is changing rapidly now as more offerings happen and an increase of less expensive offerings from Fiat, JAC, Chery and BYD are drawing more consumer and fleet interest.

Because those developments are similar In kind across large. middle-income countries, they all present major opportunities for Tesla, especially were Tesla to begin Chinese-style with utility services quickly followed by raw materials, battery manufacturing, grid support and then vehicles.

Tesla has had advanced discussions/negotiations in India, Indonesia, Brazil…those three are all large and possess large industrial Of course there have been many others we have heard less about.
Could it be that Tesla might follow the Chinese model and do them all, albeit with timing and content variations? If Tesla is to maintain that 2030 vision they will do them all, and several more!

Perhaps we’ve been too modest in our sights.

 

[winfield100]

In NEVI news Tesla won 12 of the 54, ~22%, contracts for round 1 in Pennsylvania.

National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) Formula Program

www.penndot.pa.gov

Some interesting nuggets:

• $~34M total awarded
• Tesla received awards totaling ~$2.7M.
• The average award was for ~$626k .
  • If you take Tesla out of the data the average award is ~$740k.
• Tesla's average award was ~$227k.

View attachment 964874

What I haven't been able to find yet is how many charging stalls each site will have. (I hope Traveler's America is install more than 4 charging stalls at each site with the ~$1M they were awarded for each.)

Either Tesla is putting in a lot of matching funds or their costs are way below everyone else's. (Not that Tesla's cost being so much lower is a surprise to any of us.)

edit: I heard back from PennDOT:



I updated the chart with the average per stall. That makes Tesla's cost roughly half of everyone else.

@MP3Mike
an observation of an oddity about the charging stations
(plus from before I got our MYLR)
have done 6-10 long range trips east coast of US, SW Florida to Buffalo, NY (almost Canada) (~3,500 miles) plus 2,000 mile trips east coast US
a lot of the Tesla Superchargers are at Sheetz and Wawa, electrons for car, calories for us in Virginia, North & South Carolina, (not sure abt Georgia or Florida)

I'm wondering if the Sheetz and Wawa should be lumped in with Tesla in some fashion

 

[UncaNed]

I wonder if this is using the first-gen structural 4680s or if it's just dropping in a 80kWh pack of 18650s.

Also wondering if the ground clearance with air suspension plus a hatch can get it an suv rating for the 80k cap. (Probably not)

Hoping they increased the ground clearance range somehow; it's smaller now than the original Model X release, a pet peeve of mine that no one else I know seems to care about on the (now much rarer) snowy days.

Today, for a LOWER price (and even lower comparatively when you consider inflation), you get 50 miles more range -- over 20% extra

A 340 mile trip like I took 2 days ago in my 218 mile range, 2018 X75D would have been more enjoyable with a 50 mile greater range. How far we've come indeed!!
_______________
Edit-
I seldom travel far, but on this trip I realized I'd forgotten how seamlessly Tesla navigation guides us to the best charging stations for the common good; while stations I stopped at were indeed very busy, there was always an open stall or two at all 3 of my stops on my trip. The APP and charge station scheduling are another reason I think Tesla will keep an almost-monopoly of charging stations for a very long time.

'Nother Edit-
No independent charging network can succeed without licensing/joining Tesla's charging network, and I don't see anyone bringing enough to he table for that to happen.

 

[MP3Mike]

a lot of the Tesla Superchargers are at Sheetz and Wawa, electrons for car, calories for us in Virginia, North & South Carolina, (not sure abt Georgia or Florida)

I'm wondering if the Sheetz and Wawa should be lumped in with Tesla in some fashion

The contracts are listed for who applied and was awarded them. But it is possible that Sheetz and Wawa will contract with Tesla to install the NEVI chargers at their locations. Sheetz is only listed as ~30% more than Tesla, so I think that is likely. Wawa is almost a 100% markup over Tesla, so they are probably doing it themselves or contracting with someone else like EA commerical.

 

[DarthPierce]

… so is this good for TSLA??

Is this good or bad for someone hoping to sell some real estate and use that to buy more tsla in the next month?

Asking for a friend.

 

[kbM3]

TSLA is up 1157% from my cost basis. I'm not too worried.

I don’t get this attitude. You should worry exactly the same as another person with the same number of shares and same financial picture as you, but with a cost basis > $400 / share.

It’s ALL about the future. Your cost basis is a reflection of the past and irrelevant to your decision to sell/buy/hold Tesla and to whether you should worry (other than tax considerations if it’s in a taxable account). In fact, someone with the same number of shares, but a higher cost basis, is in a SUPERIOR position tax wise.

Yes you’ve increased your net worth and theirs has decreased, but that’s in the past. Other than tax considerations, you’re in the exact same position now,

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

The contracts are listed for who applied and was awarded them. But it is possible that Sheetz and Wawa will contract with Tesla to install the NEVI chargers at their locations. Sheetz is only listed as ~30% more than Tesla, so I think that is likely. Wawa is almost a 100% markup over Tesla, so they are probably doing it themselves or contracting with someone else like EA commerical.

With the switch to NACS I suspect that large gas station chains like Sheetz and Wawa, and chain stores will try to get into their own-brand charging.

Depending on whether they can work reliably, it could be the new trend and Tesla could begin to find it harder to get larger hosting agreements for their Superchargers.

 

[Mengy]

I don’t get this attitude. You should worry exactly the same as another person with the same number of shares and same financial picture as you, but with a cost basis > $400 / share.

It’s ALL about the future. Your cost basis is a reflection of the past and irrelevant to your decision to sell/buy/hold Tesla and to whether you should worry (other than tax considerations if it’s in a taxable account). In fact, someone with the same number of shares, but a higher cost basis, is in a SUPERIOR position tax wise.

Yes you’ve increased your net worth and theirs has decreased, but that’s in the past. Other than tax considerations, you’re in the exact same position now,

I don't worry because thanks to TSLA I'm debt free, retired, have enough cash for two years of bills in the bank, and am very confident TSLA will eventually climb way past it's ATH of $415. I'm solvent enough to wait for it, and even if I do need to sell shares in two years around today's prices I am confident I'll still be selling at a huge profit from my investment point.

This is the beauty of holding stocks long in good companies. It grants you the stress free cushion to not worry about the dips and such.

My "attitude" is one of comfort and confidence in said future, despite today's mud. Maybe that helps clear it up?

 

[Snerruc]

Ok at this point, I think we have to admit that the last X andS refresh was Not successful. It was months too long and sales haven‘t reached pre refresh highs. I for one would be ordering a new S about now ordinarily, but dirty wheels and black trim prevent this. Other people want different colors, etc. combine that with pricing at over $100,000, which is overpriced, in my opinion, and you have a problem. That’s why the true price of a long range in Florida is $82,000 now, a $9500 discount.