Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wipster]

So how long do you think it will be before Stellantis, Hyundai, BMW, MB et al sign on to the North American Charging Standard? It's going to happen, just a matter of when...

I'd bet talks are ongoing and have been for a while...

 

[M|S|M MYP]

God. All those E-HumVees at my Superchargers.

Nah, they all got recalled and scrapped.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Who would have thought Mary B. would be the catalyst for a 4% move?

Well, Jim Chanos for one... don't even wanna sift thru MBS tweet **** regrets...

 

[Bet TSLA]

Sandy Munro on the deal...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1666912850743361536

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Lots of cheering, but what does this deal imply? I'm missing some analysis of the financial implications.

- How often will the average Ford/GM EV driver supercharge per year? Most charging is done at home, because it's more convenient and cheaper. I'd estimate 10 times.
- How much does the average charge cost? I'd say 70 kWh. At $0.30 that makes about $20.
- What is the profit margin on this? 60% perhaps? $12 in profit then. So we get to $120 of profit per EV per year.
- How many EVs will be driving around in the US in, say, 10 years? One hundred million, including Teslas?

Assuming all other brands also sign up that's $12 billion in profit (of which 2/3 was not yet accounted for, the Teslas were). Capital costs and maintenance will take that down to maybe $10 billion. Assuming there's a P/E of 20 for that part of the business that makes for $200 billion in market cap. That's 60 points. A lot, but I suppose not enough to get us to an ATH.

Other implications: Tesla loses a very big moat. But Tesla also becomes a household name for EV drivers who visit the Superchargers and that may lure people to the brand.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Not sure if anyone has asked this yet, nor if known publicly, but does Tesla make money on their sale of SuperCharger power? Or is it run as a non-profit center internally to help build more and accelerate the mission? If not for profit, then there would be no additional revenue from other companies adding on, only more SuperChargers - where all boats float so to speak.

This is not to say the reward comes in other forms such as marketing, but I'm just talking bottom line. Do we know anything on this?

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm not sure that's true. I just listened to the recording and Elon seemed to want to assure everyone that non-Tesla EVs would be on an even playing field.

Agree. Non-Tesla EVs will likely pay a flat monthly fee to access the Supercharger network (perhaps even included with their purchase as a payment from the OEM to Tesla), or pay a slightly higher rate per kwh delivered if they aren't a member.

We have already seen how Tesla Europe does this for other EV owners. The difference in N. America will be access to the App API by the OEM, so they can at least get started on their long slog to software self-reliance.

Cheers!

 

[thx1139]

I wonder how this changes the Infrastructure Law investment into charging networks? Will it end up causing Tesla to be contracted for more of the work and therefore building out the Tesla SuperCharger Network to an even greater extent with public dollars.

 

[traxila]

well time for you all to be nice. and me to come clean.
I took all 98% money out of TSLA when it reached $180/share. I believed elon when he said it was going to be a rough for the next year. And I got a knot in my stomach when the stock went so low for no reason I could figure out last year. And at $180 I had enough to live on at my current economic level till I die. And I am 67 this year and I kept hearing all the bulls talk about "in ten years". Noone in my family has lived to 80 yrs old ever.
My wishful thinking 4 yrs ago was that I could triple my money with TSLA, and at $180 I more than did that.
SO I am happy for all of you, but I have to fight to be "logical" and see the big picture.... and yet I wonder if I got back in tomorrow.
This hurts when I start thinking the wrong way about it.

You have plenty of company.

My trading account is one-sixth the value it was 18 months ago and two thirds of it is gone forever even if TSLA hits ATH again. There are many reasons why, but the biggest reasons are stupidity and options.

It does suck. I was leveraged to get most of it back, but after Q1 earnings I feared a trip down to 100 again and unloaded large amounts waiting for a lower price to load up again. There were other factors at play, but all of it is my fault. The account is still 10X where it started once upon a time, so I should just STFU.

Hang in there. I cannot tell you to simply load up again and count your profits in a couple of years. Risk is still a thing, and whenever I have done this the past eighteen months I have paid dearly for it (of course, if you avoid all leverage and cannot be margin called, then it may be an option you could sleep at night with. Sell some when you need money and otherwise let it ride). There still seems to be a recession coming and where car stocks will go when it finally arrives could be perilous. And no matter how bulletproof Tesla suddenly appears, there will be trying times again, probably sooner than we think.

 

[Nocturnal]

Lots of cheering, but what does this deal imply? I'm missing some analysis of the financial implications.

- How often will the average Ford/GM EV driver supercharge per year? Most charging is done at home, because it's more convenient and cheaper. I'd estimate 10 times.
- How much does the average charge cost? I'd say 70 kWh. At $0.30 that makes about $20.
- What is the profit margin on this? 60% perhaps? $12 in profit then. So we get to $120 of profit per EV per year.
- How many EVs will be driving around in the US in, say, 10 years? One hundred million, including Teslas?

Assuming all other brands also sign up that's $12 billion in profit (of which 2/3 was not yet accounted for, the Teslas were). Capital costs and maintenance will take that down to maybe $10 billion. Assuming there's a P/E of 20 for that part of the business that makes for $200 billion in market cap. That's 60 points. A lot, but I suppose not enough to get us to an ATH.

Other implications: Tesla loses a very big moot. But Tesla also becomes a household name for EV drivers who visit the Superchargers and that may lure people to the brand.

Beyond pure profit I think these moves solidify Tesla's position as the dominant EV company in the minds of investors. That's worth a lot more than $60 a share IMO.

Just look at GM stock. They are up more AH than TSLA.

You have plenty of company.

My trading account is one-sixth the value it was 18 months ago and two thirds of it is gone forever even if TSLA hits ATH again. There are many reasons why, but the biggest reasons are stupidity and options.

Yes definitely not alone. For every one of us that admits it there are probably several others who are embarrassed and don't.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Queue the disgruntled Tesla owners with the 'We bought a tesla strictly because of the superior charging infrastructure, you screwed us again Elon' rhetoric.

A wise man once told me "that cat's got 8 teets, but only 1 liver".

TL;dr when a SuC site has a 500KW connection to the grid, 8 cars get 60KW each, or 4 get 120 ea, or 2 get 250 ea... you'll wait when it's busy, whether ur plugged or unplugged.

 

[colettimj]

So Ford and now GM will be adopting NACS-only in their future models. Jim Farley said that one of the conditions of the agreement was that Ford owners would continue to use the Ford app and not need to use Tesla's. Not sure if GM had any similar requirements.

What we haven't heard so far, is if Tesla had any requirements. For example, would NACS-only Ford and GMs need to have the charging port in the same location as Teslas?

 

[wipster]

I'm confused:

Tesla has the EV lead in tech? Thought it was GM or Toyota..CNBC admitting Tesla is the leader? Time to buy some lottery tix after work

View attachment 945104

GM to use Tesla charging network, joining Ford in leveraging the EV leader's tech

GM, like Ford, will begin installing a charging port used by Tesla, known as NACS, instead of the current industry-standard CCS in its EVs starting in 2025.

www.cnbc.com

So what will Uncle Joe say? Would be nice for him to finally address the maker of the best selling vehicle... In the World!

He might have Secretary Pete address it... heck he may have been involved in the discussions! I think this move may be the biggest catalyst towards BEV adoption to date!

 

[Bet TSLA]

Lots of cheering, but what does this deal imply?

What it means is:

• EVs will be viewed more positively by everyone, because bad charging will disappear as a normal experience.
• Far more supercharger locations will be built, and much more quickly, because competition for locations will disappear.
• Tesla will have much more of an influence on the grid, making its charging cheaper.

There's lots more.

Tesla financial positives will mostly come from selling lots more vehicles as a side-effect.

 

[jerry33]

Lots of cheering, but what does this deal imply? I'm missing some analysis of the financial implications.

- How often will the average Ford/GM EV driver supercharge per year? Most charging is done at home, because it's more convenient and cheaper. I'd estimate 10 times.
- How much does the average charge cost? I'd say 70 kWh. At $0.30 that makes about $20.
- What is the profit margin on this? 60% perhaps? $12 in profit then. So we get to $120 of profit per EV per year.
- How many EVs will be driving around in the US in, say, 10 years? One hundred million, including Teslas?

Assuming all other brands also sign up that's $12 billion in profit (of which 2/3 was not yet accounted for, the Teslas were). Capital costs and maintenance will take that down to maybe $10 billion. Assuming there's a P/E of 20 for that part of the business that makes for $200 billion in market cap. That's 60 points. A lot, but I suppose not enough to get us to an ATH.

Other implications: Tesla loses a very big moot. But Tesla also becomes a household name for EV drivers who visit the Superchargers and that may lure people to the brand.

Ah, but it legitimizes the NACS so that it doesn’t become an orphan they way CHAdeMO has. Even if Tesla never makes a dime it’s still a very positive move.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Beyond pure profit I think these moves solidify Tesla's position as the dominant EV company in the minds of investors. That's worth a lot more than $60 a share IMO.

Just look at GM stock. They are up more AH than TSLA.

Yes definitely not alone. For every one of us that admits it there are probably several others who are embarrassed and don't.

This. US OEMs are bowing the knee. This is the first instantiation of “asking for help”. In the future it will be software, FSD, OTA, etc.

 

[2daMoon]

Beyond pure profit I think these moves solidify Tesla's position as the dominant EV company in the minds of investors. That's worth a lot more than $60 a share IMO.


Yes definitely not alone. For every one of us that admits it there are probably several others who are embarrassed and don't.

+1

This makes Tesla "real" in the eyes of those who haven't been paying as close attention to things. It opens up Tesla and TSLA as a viable option to many people who would otherwise have been rolling their eyes.

Tesla has been embraced by the old guard as not only one of their own, but the one who may help pave the way for the old guard's future.

Everyone who for one reason or another has dismissed Tesla up until now will have to rethink their position as the pushback from their peers increases.

 

[Prunesquallor]

So what will Uncle Joe say? Would be nice for him to finally address the maker of the best selling vehicle... In the World!
…

That’s. OK. He’s paying us. A lot.

 

[SOULPEDL]

well time for you all to be nice. and me to come clean.
I took all 98% money out of TSLA when it reached $180/share. I believed elon when he said it was going to be a rough for the next year. And I got a knot in my stomach when the stock went so low for no reason I could figure out last year. And at $180 I had enough to live on at my current economic level till I die. And I am 67 this year and I kept hearing all the bulls talk about "in ten years". Noone in my family has lived to 80 yrs old ever.
My wishful thinking 4 yrs ago was that I could triple my money with TSLA, and at $180 I more than did that.
SO I am happy for all of you, but I have to fight to be "logical" and see the big picture.... and yet I wonder if I got back in tomorrow.
This hurts when I start thinking the wrong way about it.

I completely understand and thanks for being honest! I got the same feeling from Elon as well. I sold only the minimum needed for 1 more year based on his estimate timeline for the recession... which still may hit us like a relapsed fever. Also shed most of my options (as planned). My mistake was thinking by now (last year) we would be through the recession already which left me quite low on cash for the summer and beyond.

I'm still in, I was just a little too All-in since last year at 400 SP and was getting close to reserves. This is my lowest % since then, I actually thought it would be lower. Maybe I'm still all in?

 

[wipster]

You have plenty of company.

My trading account is one-sixth the value it was 18 months ago and two thirds of it is gone forever even if TSLA hits ATH again. There are many reasons why, but the biggest reasons are stupidity and options.

It does suck. I was leveraged to get most of it back, but after Q1 earnings I feared a trip down to 100 again and unloaded large amounts waiting for a lower price to load up again. There were other factors at play, but all of it is my fault. The account is still 10X where it started once upon a time, so I should just STFU.

Hang in there. I cannot tell you to simply load up again and count your profits in a couple of years. Risk is still a thing, and whenever I have done this the past eighteen months I have paid dearly for it (of course, if you avoid all leverage and cannot be margin called, then it may be an option you could sleep at night with. Sell some when you need money and otherwise let it ride). There still seems to be a recession coming and where car stocks will go when it finally arrives could be perilous. And no matter how bulletproof Tesla suddenly appears, there will be trying times again, probably sooner than we think.

Yep. I lost a third of my shares primarily to stupidity, medical costs, and dependence on credit at the end of last year... coming back now, but until Tesla's price drop at the beginning of this year I thought I might lose it all.

So with that in mind, if you're satisfied that you're in good shape going forward without putting your money back in TSLA, more power to you. Don't sweat FOMO because you didn't miss out! You have achieved your financial goals mate, now it's time to enjoy the spoils!

But please keep on posting, we'd miss your valuable input my friend.