Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lklundin]

Here's to hoping that *IF* Germany goes to level 3, that Giga Berlin will get full energy needs met. July 21st, the pipeline is supposed to be turned back on...

Europe on high alert as Russia temporarily halts gas flows via major pipeline

Europe fears the suspension of deliveries could be extended beyond the 10-day timeline, derailing the region's winter supply preparations.

www.cnbc.com

"Analysts at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group said that if Putin orchestrated a total cutoff of gas supplies beyond the scheduled end of maintenance works on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, Germany would likely be forced to move to level three of its three-stage emergency gas plan.

At this level, Germany’s regulator, Bundesnetzagentur, would need to decide how to distribute gas supplies nationwide."

With Tesla having now weathered massive, global supply chain issues during a couple of pandemic years and with Tesla having lots of cash, is it too much to expect that they - unlike the German government - have had just a modicum of foresight and have gone out and bought for themselves a large quantity of actual, physical methane, stored somewhere in the Brandenburg region?

I hope not.

 

[ZeApelido]

I love rumors. Especially rumors like this.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1546572239264485380

And of course one of the best albums of all time.

 

[Singuy]

So the point of the data access is to consummate the purchase but at a lower price?? Or to avoid the breakup penalty?

Premarket volume not suggesting much confidence IMO.

The point is to purchase twitter if bot is less than 5-8%, completely renegotiate if bot % is materially higher. Twitter may not have any means of measuring which is what Elon is suspecting therefore its fraudulent to claim they have a way to measure and then walk away.

 

[Cosmacelf]

With Tesla having now weathered massive, global supply chain issues during a couple of pandemic years and with Tesla having lots of cash, is it too much to expect that they - unlike the German government - have had just a modicum of foresight and have gone out and bought for themselves a large quantity of actual, physical methane, stored somewhere in the Brandenburg region?

I hope not.

They‘d need a permit for that. And there’s no way anyone is getting a permit for this going forward for industrial plant uses.

 

[Electroman]

That's false, let me school you (and anyone else who doesn't understand required due diligence).

Yes, due diligence is required. No, not all due diligence can occur before the offer is made. That's why the contract has clauses requiring Twitter to supply more proprietary info to Musk in the course of closing the deal. This should be obvious to all or the clauses in the contract requiring Twitter to be responsive to Musk's requests for proprietary information have no meaning (and clauses in contracts are always assumed to have meaning). What would be the point in providing Musk proprietary information before the sale is consummated considering he would have full access to that information after the sale is consummated?

Posting such misleading info here and then suggesting all responses be posted elsewhere is shameful!

That is correct. No different from how you first bid for a house with an option fee, and then you do your inspection. You cannot do inspections without first signing a contract. During inspection, you find termites and a cracked foundation and leaky roof. You can back off without any penalty. I

 

[Nocturnal]

2021-22 Mustang Mach-E owners slap Ford with federal lawsuit over safety defect

Ford is hit with its second lawsuit seeking class-action status, claiming company should've known of defects, this time in the Mustang Mach-E.

www.freep.com

Yep, big fat grin on my face with this news.

I wouldn't normally enjoy sour grapes like this, but I've received so much abuse from Ford (and other) fans over the past few years that I'm loving it.

I love rumors. Especially rumors like this.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1546572239264485380

Even if it's just an exaggeration, what if it's 400 miles? Huge. That would make sense really if the planned CT pack is say 25% larger to get the 500+ range.

If it leaks that Tesla can build a 500 mile range Y then we will be back in the 900s for sure.

 

[willow_hiller]

I love rumors. Especially rumors like this.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1546572239264485380

And of course one of the best albums of all time.

I've heard whispers of very long range test vehicles before (for e.g. one from 110110, a trusted mod on /r/teslamotors). But I imagine in most cases, they're built for gathering data on specific parameters and not intended to be mass produced.

 

[gtrplyr1]

Funny thing is .... a 500 mile range is completely unnecessary for 99% of people and 99% of circumstances. I'd argue that it's purely for bragging rights. How about 375 miles (more than adequate) and a lower price point? PLUS, it will save resources (batteries) so I do not see Tesla going there.

It's against the "mission"

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Funny thing is .... a 500 mile range is completely unnecessary for 99% of people and 99% of circumstances. I'd argue that it's purely for bragging rights. How about 375 miles (more than adequate) and a lower price point? PLUS, it will save resources (batteries) so I do not see Tesla going there.

It's against the "mission"

a 500 mile "extended range" would be awesome. I'd pay the extra money for that in a heartbeat. I do a 300 mile road trip (each way) several times a month, and 500 miles would be great. 500 rated miles would be more like 400 actual miles.

so not only could they sell a configuration for extra $$$, it sets the bar even higher for the competition

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Bloomberg says we might have crossed a tipping point for EV adoption in US. If US stays on same trajectory as other countries that have passed 5% adoption, 25% of new cars being EV in 2025...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1546588656407805952

 

[henchman24]

I love rumors. Especially rumors like this.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1546572239264485380

And of course one of the best albums of all time.

I feel like 500mi Tesla rumors have been out there forever... for the Y it simply doesn't make sense to have a 500mi range vehicle. 400... sure i get that. 500 is a waste of batteries that could be used elsewhere. 500mi Cybertruck makes a lot of sense with towing.

 

[elasalle]

I feel like 500mi Tesla rumors have been out there forever... for the Y it simply doesn't make sense to have a 500mi range vehicle. 400... sure i get that. 500 is a waste of batteries that could be used elsewhere. 500mi Cybertruck makes a lot of sense with towing.

Model Y, esp those given to employees, might be serving a bigger purpose. Data collection for CT as well.

 

[gtrplyr1]

IF they do offer the 500 mile option, I hope it's like Apple when you upgrade RAM ... they really stick it to you.

375 to 500 ... fine .... $15k option.

 

[ZachF]

Could Tesla use rooftop solar and megapacks in a meaningful time or manner to offset a Russian gas cutoff to Germany including possibility GigaBerlin? It seems a likely necessity in the long run anyway.

Unfortunately, solar in Germany is a uniquely poor solution to replace Russian gas with. Germany’s solar resources in general are pretty terrible, capacity factor is about 8-10% nation wide and this drops to only 2-3% in the winter months, which is exactly when Russian gas is used for heat.

Using solar for winter heating in Germany is going to require Large arrays plus local storage in Spain/Portugal or the Sahara piped in via HVDC to Germany.

 

[Ogre]

Bloomberg says we might have crossed a tipping point for EV adoption in US. If US stays on same trajectory as other countries that have passed 5% adoption, 25% of new cars being EV in 2025...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1546588656407805952

It's been clear we are at/ past the tipping point for most of the last year. Just listen to consumer sentiment and look at the gulf in experiences.

As it has been for much of the past year, the big constraint is supply. With smartphones they were able to crank up volume production quickly. With cars, it's going to take a bit more time.

Safe to say demand is assured and constant for the next 10-20 years until we come out the other end.

 

[Ogre]

IF they do offer the 500 mile option, I hope it's like Apple when you upgrade RAM ... they really stick it to you.

375 to 500 ... fine .... $15k option.

Tesla has always done this. Cybertruck going from 300 mile dual motor to 500 mile tri motor is a $20k upgrade. There are other benefits, but that's the big reason most people want the tri motor.

 

[Drezil]

Industrial plant shutdowns or curtailment is a very real risk factor right now for Germany. Natural gas will be prioritized for home heating. Tesla may be in for a bumpy ride for the next year until this gets sorted out.

Depends. Some industries go first.
Some industrial furnaces break if they go cold once. They have to be kept on at all times or the companies/sector goes bankrupt.
I think some steel and some glass manufacturing fall under this category .. but i do not know the details. Some of those are running straight for 40 years currently.
There are things you cannot "turn off" and "turn on" later.. and you cannot switch things around fast.
Like with nuclear. We decided to switch off some years ago. As a consequence there was no maintenance anymore, there is no fuel etc. Even the BEST CASE scenario from now on would have nuclear go cold in autumn and have new fuel end of Q1/beginning of Q2 2023.

Things only turn very very slow in big industries.

Another problem is France. They just shut off 8 nuclear reactors because they had one where they found iron-oxide inside the reactor chamber by accident. Then they checked the other ones and had to shut off 8 due to the same analysis. Also the next heat-wave will heat up the cooling-water so much, that the rest of the reactors will go offline by the end of the week because they cannot be cooled enough. Happens nearly every heatwave - with the consequence that they import much solar from Germany .... even thoguh France SHOULD be the way better solar-market ..

--

tl;dr: i think Tesla Berlin will be fine. France has big potential for Tesla solar, whole continent has huge demand for Megapack & energy-arbitrage.

Edit: And don't forget: North of berlin at the baltic sea we are currently building HUGE LNG-Terminals for supply from Oman and other Nations feeding directly into the point where Nordstream 1 makes landfall in Germany. They should be ready in autumn or winter if everything goes right. That can alleviate a lot of the pressure. Also we filled the reserve to 68% (from 5% at start of the war) - target was 80% before winter.

 

[henchman24]

Tesla has always done this. Cybertruck going from 300 mile dual motor to 500 mile tri motor is a $20k upgrade. There are other benefits, but that's the big reason most people want the tri motor.

To an extent... Tesla has been going away from this. S and X both use the same battery for all the models. 3 LR/P and Y LR/P use the same battery. Just the standard range versions are using different batteries. With the CT pricing all going away, and Tesla continuing to try to make everything easier to manufacture... could easily see the difference between the early production Cybertrucks being only the dual vs quad motor.

 

[MC3OZ]

Unfortunately, solar in Germany is a uniquely poor solution to replace Russian gas with. Germany’s solar resources in general are pretty terrible, capacity factor is about 8-10% nation wide and this drops to only 2-3% in the winter months, which is exactly when Russian gas is used for heat.

Using solar for winter heating in Germany is going to require Large arrays plus local storage in Spain/Portugal or the Sahara piped in via HVDC to Germany.

Offshore wind is good in Germany in winter.

Replacing gas driven industrial sources of heat with electricity, hydrogen or synthetic fuels would be a good idea, but can't be done quickly.

 

[Electroman]

Funny thing is .... a 500 mile range is completely unnecessary for 99% of people and 99% of circumstances. I'd argue that it's purely for bragging rights. How about 375 miles (more than adequate) and a lower price point? PLUS, it will save resources (batteries) so I do not see Tesla going there.

It's against the "mission"

I drove 250 miles roundtrip on LR Model Y on a clear hot 103F weather here in TX last weekend, and I couldn't get the consumption below 300 wh/mile keeping up with the traffic at 75 mph and climate control set at 73F.

Initially I thought I can cover the distance and get back home starting with a 100% charge of 300 miles from home and without the need to charge on the road. Fat chance. I guess at that rate of consumption I will get no more than 220 miles. So I was forced to stop on the way for charging.

A 500 mile EPA will give you 300 miles of real range with some 30 miles buffer on a hot or cold day