Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

To an extent... Tesla has been going away from this. S and X both use the same battery for all the models. 3 LR/P and Y LR/P use the same battery. Just the standard range versions are using different batteries. With the CT pricing all going away, and Tesla continuing to try to make everything easier to manufacture... could easily see the difference between the early production Cybertrucks being only the dual vs quad motor.

When I bought my Model Y there were 3 models. That was a little window, when we had the SR, the LR, and the Performance. The SR had about 70 miles less range and cost about $7,000 less. The Model 3 is similarly split today, Model 3 SR is $47k LR is $58k, an $11k gap. The new Model Y AWD is about $6k less than the Model Y and has about 50 miles less range.

The Performance/ Plaid models have priorities other than range.

As you suggest, Cybertruck configs could be anything at this point. I was just basing my comment on the previous specs.

 

[Drezil]

Offshore wind is good in Germany in winter.

Replacing gas driven industrial sources of heat with electricity, hydrogen or synthetic fuels would be a good idea, but can't be done quickly.

Funny thing is: Heatpumps are 350% Effective in converting Energy->Heat. If you replace gas-heaters for Heatpumps (46% of all residential heating is gas in Germany) and produce the Energy in a gas-plant you save about 50% of the gas for heating purposes!
BUT this would also mean massive investment that only pays off slowly. Combined with the fact that we already have a labor-shortage of skilled people in that area (heating, solar, battery storage, ..) followed slightly by parts shortage (i.e. the actual solar panels, heaters, inverters, batteries, ...).

My cousin has a solar-roofing/new-energy company.. they have orders out up to 12 months .. and even most of the parts. But not enough skilled installers for everything

 

[henchman24]

When I bought my Model Y there were 3 models. That was a little window, when we had the SR, the LR, and the Performance. The SR had about 70 miles less range and cost about $7,000 less. The Model 3 is similarly split today, Model 3 SR is $47k LR is $58k, an $11k gap. The new Model Y AWD is about $6k less than the Model Y and has about 50 miles less range.

The Performance/ Plaid models have priorities other than range.

As you suggest, Cybertruck configs could be anything at this point. I was just basing my comment on the previous specs.

That’s kinda my point though… Tesla has been taking steps to eliminate this complexity. They do it with structure and chemistry, but outside that they don’t mess with pack capacities.

 

[bkp_duke]

I drove 250 miles roundtrip on LR Model Y on a clear hot 103F weather here in TX last weekend, and I couldn't get the consumption below 300 wh/mile keeping up with the traffic at 75 mph and climate control set at 73F.

Initially I thought I can cover the distance and get back home starting with a 100% charge of 300 miles from home and without the need to charge on the road. Fat chance. I guess at that rate of consumption I will get no more than 220 miles. So I was forced to stop on the way for charging.

A 500 mile EPA will give you 300 miles of real range with some 30 miles buffer on a hot or cold day

"Rated range" is like EPA mpg for ICE cars. It's under very strict conditions (both the car and external factors).

Think something along the lines of . . . 70F exterior temp, 60 MPH, no headwind, and perfectly flat terrain.

So with you being at 103F exterior temp, 25% faster speed (75MPH vs. 60), etc. I'm not surprised you didn't get "close" to the rated range.

 

[Cobbler]

Saw it in Marks tweet

 

[Usain]

I love rumors. Especially rumors like this.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1546572239264485380

If it's true that the 4680's are that good, I think we will know very soon.

Sandy Munro will surely do the requisite analysis of the cells.

And if Sandy doesn't spill the beans, someone who pays $800 for one of his teardown cells will.

 

[kanweg]

A 500 mile MY would satisfy people with caravans, boats or other major drags.

 

[madodel]

WHEW!
I got this stockmarket thing all figured out.
Sell high $725 last thursday. With the intention to buy back in on Friday when the stock does an oscillation back down to near the Max Pain price. Easy peasy. Only for the Stock to run the hell up to over $750/share at close so I am stuck with all this cash at close. Only to hear Elon is not buying Twitter, and Tesla will go up between $35-$100 before open on Monday. So I will either be caught out and have to buy less shares when I put the money back in the market on Monday, or live in eternal irresponsible hell for weeks or forever until the stock dips down below $725 in some future scenario.

Ya'll had me thinking I was going to get screwed by My good buddy Elon since he wasn't going to buy Twitter, and TSLA was going to go up $100/share. All weekend long I watch you guys rubbing your hands together while staring at the TMC Forum screen. With "Cheers To The Longs!" being the most often closing to your posts.

Good friends, cold beer, and having already become financially better off than I thought or hoped I would ever be was some solace... Just sitting on the Steamer Trunk of dollars.

Yet today I bought back in for a modest 2% gain from Thursday... instead of the 6% loss since Friday.
Isn't the market fun? So much fun. Instead of being burned by whimsical Musk.

Remember the song "Picking up Paw-paws putting em in my pockets"?
Pickin up pennies puttin em in my pockets... Pickin up pennies puttin em in my pockets...

(The steam roller missed me again.. I know I know....)

It's all a scam. Once you accept that it makes it more palatable. Best is just not look because the next day it can rocket in the opposite direction.

Holding until $1200 post split. Then maybe some more.

Cheers to the HODLrs.

 

[JRP3]

I love rumors. Especially rumors like this.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1546572239264485380

And of course one of the best albums of all time.

Even if true it doesn't mean that they are the same vehicles being sold to customers, I'd say chances are near zero. Why would battery constrained Tesla ship vehicles with 500 miles of range but software lock them to less than 300?

 

[sbink]

Seems only @The Accountant made it on the list from TMC.

Hi Tyler, you know of other TMC analysts with 2023 or 2030 price targets? please point me to it and I'll add them too,

Thanks,

Steven

 

[Ogre]

Even if true it doesn't mean that they are the same vehicles being sold to customers, I'd say chances are near zero. Why would battery constrained Tesla ship vehicles with 500 miles of range but software lock them to less than 300?

They wouldn't.

Particularly not when the Model Y AWD with 279 miles range will sell just fine for a long long time. They might be holding some range in reserve, like an extra 20-30 miles, but they wouldn't be shipping them with 500 miles worth of cells and charging less than the Model Y LR.

 

[madodel]

Funny thing is: Heatpumps are 350% Effective in converting Energy->Heat. If you replace gas-heaters for Heatpumps (46% of all residential heating is gas in Germany) and produce the Energy in a gas-plant you save about 50% of the gas for heating purposes!
BUT this would also mean massive investment that only pays off slowly. Combined with the fact that we already have a labor-shortage of skilled people in that area (heating, solar, battery storage, ..) followed slightly by parts shortage (i.e. the actual solar panels, heaters, inverters, batteries, ...).

My cousin has a solar-roofing/new-energy company.. they have orders out up to 12 months .. and even most of the parts. But not enough skilled installers for everything

And most apartment buildings there are probably using gas for their furnaces. Do they still use coal or heating oil in Germany? I told my daughter , who's in Mannheim, to buy an electric room heater to have. She has no idea what is used to heat the radiator in her apartment, but it's a furnace that heats the building so I assume its gas. She has never gone without heat and never gave it a thought. Of course July isn't the easiest time to find a heater but there are still a few around in Germany on the Internet. Once people realize what is coming there this winter they will all be gone.

 

[StealthP3D]

Model Y, esp those given to employees, might be serving a bigger purpose. Data collection for CT as well.

It goes far beyond that. Tesla has an entirely new battery and they need to collect real world data in order to prove it's longevity. In order to reduce risk of having a surprise rash of expensive battery warranty claims down the road, they are almost certainly rating the packs very conservatively in terms of range allowed (energy stored) so they know the batteries will last through the warranty period with a very low rate of claims.

Realize that a given battery does not have a fixed storage capacity, it can vary widely depending upon how many charge/discharge cycles it is expected to provide, how carefully the temperature is regulated, how much vibration it experiences, etc. Tesla could turn the LR AWD Model 3 into a 400 plus mile car with nothing more than a software update but it might have unacceptably high battery warranty claims if it did that. As Tesla has enough data to ensure longevity of the 4680 batteries, they will either unlock the additional capacity to owners (probably free of charge) and/or start making the cars with fewer cells to make them lighter and less expensive to build.

Tesla has shown exceptional performance and care when it comes to de-risking the business down the road. That's what we are seeing here and it's more important than one might think.

 

[ZachF]

Macro: Euro and dollar are hitting parity

 

[dm28997]

Twitter shorts may do well and theoretically Elon could buy it cheaper in the market if he desires. just my imagination

Twitter shares could drop to $11/share without deal, analyst says (NYSE:TWTR)

Twitter (TWTR) shares could see downside to $11/share if Elon Musk $44 billion deal to acquire the company doesnt happen, according a Rosenblatt analyst.Twitter (TWTR), whose...

seekingalpha.com

 

[ZachF]

And most apartment buildings there are probably using gas for their furnaces. Do they still use coal or heating oil in Germany? I told my daughter , who's in Mannheim, to buy an electric room heater to have. She has no idea what is used to heat the radiator in her apartment, but it's a furnace that heats the building so I assume its gas. She has never gone without heat and never gave it a thought. Of course July isn't the easiest time to find a heater but there are still a few around in Germany on the Internet. Once people realize what is coming there this winter they will all be gone.

Unfortunately it looks like a severe energy shortage and recession is headed to Europe.

The futures markets for energy there are uuugly.

NG is currently trading in Europe at the energy equivalent of $300/barrel oil.

 

[ZeApelido]

Whether or not Tesla will sell a 500 mile range Model Y isn't the point.

The point is investors can ignore the Austin SR Model Y FUD / uncertainty about 4680 if they know the cells & pack truly deliver such great specs if they try.

It means big investors would know the 4680 are the real deal.

 

[hobbes]

Twitter has not filed a lawsuit yet:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1546599189517422593

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Best headline i read today so far:

 

[ZeApelido]

Ok, which one of you did this?