Currently, Tesla has a $7500 per car price disadvantage compared to all EV makers except GM (which currently is not producing any EVs). With that disadvantage, Tesla has an 80% market share of EV's in the US. If the bill passes with the $4500 union made subsidy, Tesla will gain $3000 price advantage over their current situation. What direction should their market share go if their prices are $3000 better than they are now relative to the other US automakers (other than GM). They are ramping their US production faster in absolute numbers than all the other US OEMs. So it appears to me that Tesla will get the lion's share of the tax credit benefit.
In addition, the greater the sales of EV's in the US, the more the US OEMs will lose sales of their currently profitable ICE cars to EV's, which are unprofitable to manufacture except for Tesla. OEM's could raise their prices to make their EV's more profitable, but they will still be losing more money from lost ICE car sales than they gain from EV sales (since Tesla will be taking overall market share from them). Tesla could make the problem even harder for the US OEMs if they don't raise their prices and keep their 30% gross margins from increasing even faster than economy of scale would dictate. If they do that, then, OEM's would be in a real dilemma, that increasing EV sales for cars where there is a minimal or no profit are more than offset by loss of ICE car sales with higher profitability.
In addition, the greater the sales of EV's in the US, the more the US OEMs will lose sales of their currently profitable ICE cars to EV's, which are unprofitable to manufacture except for Tesla. OEM's could raise their prices to make their EV's more profitable, but they will still be losing more money from lost ICE car sales than they gain from EV sales (since Tesla will be taking overall market share from them). Tesla could make the problem even harder for the US OEMs if they don't raise their prices and keep their 30% gross margins from increasing even faster than economy of scale would dictate. If they do that, then, OEM's would be in a real dilemma, that increasing EV sales for cars where there is a minimal or no profit are more than offset by loss of ICE car sales with higher profitability.
