Spacep0d
Active Member
Perhaps stating the obvious here but here's how I see the near future;
1. The overall adoption of EVs worldwide is 2% but there's an enormous addressable market.
2. ICE sales are going to fall off exponentially....inversely proportionate to the exponential rise of EV sales. The best EV by a huge margin is Tesla. The only viable EV for longer trips is Tesla (Supercharging network). The safest cars (not just EVs)? Tesla again in the top two spots. Best range for the money? Tesla.
3. The Hertz deal was just a symptom of this sea change, but it's given investors lots of confidence too. As many of us have noted, Hertz rentals will generate buyers and Tesla-driving Uber ride-sharing will do the same. Hertz has hinted at another 50-100k Model 3s being purchased, which will amplify this vetting and confidence-building, even for the most recalcitrant. Those who are simply clueless about Tesla have more of a chance of understanding what's happening.
4. Tesla has the clear lead in EV development and also a robust charging network. No other EV really competes. Tesla is still expanding that network as they've promised. I see no real competition here from Electrify America, Chargepoint, EVGo, etc. Home-charging is the killer app for EVs for those who can swing it. Tesla's app update with live sentry mode monitoring (and the ability to talk through the car) is just hilarious and super useful. We tested it last night, perhaps a bit late, but appropriate for a Saturday night before Halloween. 'Step away from the vehicle'.
*Uproarious laughter*
5. Since mainstream analysts are *finally* starting to 'get it', this will strengthen TSLA even more and it helps buyer confidence too....even for those who seem overly committed to a specific analyst who's finally starting to get it.
So, there won't be linear sales of ICE continuing where Tesla has to compete for market share. We'll see a dramatic plummeting of ICE sales (long before the mandates prevent sales of new ICE vehicles) as Tesla demand continues to grow. Marques that don't have EVs (or competitive EVs) will find themselves WAY behind practically 'overnight', in the same way the super talented musician who's honed her craft for decades becomes an 'overnight sensation' when discovered.
The 'competition', even if they fully get it (a la Diess and company) can only do so much. Production as Elon reminds us is hell. Ramping up takes time. Costs for new competing EVs will be high and the customer will have to absorb that if they want to be different. Meanwhile, Tesla strengthens its clearly-dominant position in this space whilst attracting the best and brightest minds on the planet, with plenty of cross-pollination from the other set of best and brightest minds at SpaceX.
We're at a historic inflection point and the most dramatic paradigm shift since horses were replaced by internal combustion vehicles. It's a good time to be an investor, a Tesla owner, fan, supporter, and member of this great forum.
1. The overall adoption of EVs worldwide is 2% but there's an enormous addressable market.
2. ICE sales are going to fall off exponentially....inversely proportionate to the exponential rise of EV sales. The best EV by a huge margin is Tesla. The only viable EV for longer trips is Tesla (Supercharging network). The safest cars (not just EVs)? Tesla again in the top two spots. Best range for the money? Tesla.
3. The Hertz deal was just a symptom of this sea change, but it's given investors lots of confidence too. As many of us have noted, Hertz rentals will generate buyers and Tesla-driving Uber ride-sharing will do the same. Hertz has hinted at another 50-100k Model 3s being purchased, which will amplify this vetting and confidence-building, even for the most recalcitrant. Those who are simply clueless about Tesla have more of a chance of understanding what's happening.
4. Tesla has the clear lead in EV development and also a robust charging network. No other EV really competes. Tesla is still expanding that network as they've promised. I see no real competition here from Electrify America, Chargepoint, EVGo, etc. Home-charging is the killer app for EVs for those who can swing it. Tesla's app update with live sentry mode monitoring (and the ability to talk through the car) is just hilarious and super useful. We tested it last night, perhaps a bit late, but appropriate for a Saturday night before Halloween. 'Step away from the vehicle'.
*Uproarious laughter*
5. Since mainstream analysts are *finally* starting to 'get it', this will strengthen TSLA even more and it helps buyer confidence too....even for those who seem overly committed to a specific analyst who's finally starting to get it.
So, there won't be linear sales of ICE continuing where Tesla has to compete for market share. We'll see a dramatic plummeting of ICE sales (long before the mandates prevent sales of new ICE vehicles) as Tesla demand continues to grow. Marques that don't have EVs (or competitive EVs) will find themselves WAY behind practically 'overnight', in the same way the super talented musician who's honed her craft for decades becomes an 'overnight sensation' when discovered.
The 'competition', even if they fully get it (a la Diess and company) can only do so much. Production as Elon reminds us is hell. Ramping up takes time. Costs for new competing EVs will be high and the customer will have to absorb that if they want to be different. Meanwhile, Tesla strengthens its clearly-dominant position in this space whilst attracting the best and brightest minds on the planet, with plenty of cross-pollination from the other set of best and brightest minds at SpaceX.
We're at a historic inflection point and the most dramatic paradigm shift since horses were replaced by internal combustion vehicles. It's a good time to be an investor, a Tesla owner, fan, supporter, and member of this great forum.