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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Again if everyone did this, revenue would fall to zero and Tesla would be a distant memory of something good that might have happened.

The decision I am most proud of in my Tesla history is buying a S85 sight unseen in March of 2013, not the millions I have made since.

Anyone delaying the purchase of a car they desperately want that is part of a transition to a future they desperately want in order to count their future profits is not thinking straight.

I see you are in NYC so let me clue you in, Here in TN in 2021 minimum wage is still $7.25 and median income is $23,000 single or $40,000 household. That's flyover country wages.

In 2013 my annual salary was less than the cheapest car Tesla ever made (less than that median income above). Buying one then would have been financial suicide for me.

In 2021 my annual salary is now higher than the cheapest car Tesla makes but still well below the most expensive one, think 5 figures, but less than a Performance model.

Most of my TSLA is tied up in 401k/401k rollovers. I'm not selling at a penalty to just buy a car because you live in a high income area and think everyone should be able to spend like you do.

I have to make enough money to ensure my health and safety. I have to provide for this year, next year, and my retirement before I go spending it all on nice cars.

I sure feel like I'm thinking straight, before TSLA I had no concept of how I'd ever retire, post TSLA I feel like a retirement is a sure thing and depending on the rate TSLA appreciates I might even have a choice on how early I retire.

I'll buy the car(s) at some point when it makes sense for me. I'd love to have a couple. If you want to buy them for me send me a PM. If not, please don't tell me how to spend my money, and definitely don't do it by saying I'm not thinking straight.
 
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In very early 2013 I bought a Model S for cash at $100,000 and I bought $170,000 of TSLA during the year of 2013 (I still have most of it). That Model S was the most expensive car ever! Had I bought stock with that $100k it would be worth something like $8,800,000. That's one very expensive Model S!

Below is my 1st Model S, delivery day March 31st, 2013 (Yep, end of quarter rush). Back then, it was like being a Rock Star! I'd walk out of the market to my car and there would be a crowd of people just staring at it. One guy asked, "How much did you pay for that car?". I replied, "I have no idea, my girlfriend bought it for me" J/K.
View attachment 722684View attachment 722685
Thank you Gene!, if not for early adopters like you we might not be where where we are today, a lot of us owe people like you a big Thank You! It’s still the most beautiful car and driving by a model S today I still wished I had one, but the Y will do for now and I’ll never be without a Tesla and I tell everyone that I talk with.
 
I believe this does not affect the EV incentives. It's a different section of the bill. Manchin is against aiding the transition from coal and natural gas to solar and wind. He still likes electricity.

So this is just bad for the human race in general, not EVs specifically.
Oh, I think you're right. My mistake.
 
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I see you are in NYC so let me clue you in, Here in TN in 2021 minimum wage is still $7.25 and median income is $23,000 single or $40,000 household. That's flyover country wages.

In 2013 my annual salary was less than the cheapest car Tesla ever made (less than that median income above). Buying one then would have been financial suicide for me.

In 2021 my annual salary is now higher than the cheapest car Tesla makes but still well below the most expensive one, think 5 figures, but less than a Performance model.

Most of my TSLA is tied up in 401k/401k rollovers. I'm not selling at a penalty to just buy a car because you live in a high income area and think everyone should be able to spend like you do.

I have to make enough money to ensure my health and safety. I have to provide for this year, next year, and my retirement before I go spending it all on nice cars.

I sure feel like I'm thinking straight, before TSLA I had no concept of how I'd ever retire, post TSLA I feel like a retirement is a sure thing and depending on the rate TSLA appreciates I might even have a choice on how early I retire.

I'll buy the car(s) at some point when it makes sense for me. I'd love to have a couple. If you want to buy them for me send me a PM. If not, please don't tell me how to spend my money, and definitely don't do it by saying I'm not thinking straight.
Fair enough. But the post you wrote that I responded to made it clear that you could have bought a Tesla since 2018, but of course it would have incredibly expensive because of the stock gains you would have missed out on.

Identifying me by me geographic location and telling me I am clueless regarding the incomes and financial situations of people in “flyover country” is a disappointing ad hominem attack and totally besides the point. A lot of assumptions there because of the NYC tag. Typical nowadays.

I will stick to my central thesis: Tesla has succeeded because people bought their cars, not their stock. If you believe in the mission, that should be a priority for you.
 
...

I will stick to my central thesis: Tesla has succeeded because people bought their cars, not their stock. If you believe in the mission, that should be a priority for you.
This 100%.

While I like to think that the expense was justified to verify my investment thesis, the other real big piece of this was me driving the Model X in 2016 to places and being visible as much as possible, among other things also with four bikes on a bike rack and all showing that I get sports utility out of it, and that I can go places like Larsen Volcanic area park,Fort Bragg, Los Angeles, San Diego. Then January 2018 when I got my Model 3, I was driving it around before work for fun just loving it that I realized I could sign up with Lyft and blow peoples minds by doing so. I gave about 160 rides before my insurance asked if perhaps I was doing ride sharing and stopped to be able to truthfully say 'No'. My favorite moments were picking up people from the BMW dealership, or that Lyft Lux Ride where we ended up at the freeway entrance with two lanes and a corvette next to us, me asking the riders if they mind, and as we fly off leaving the loud and exhausted corvette behind us, they say: Wow, I got to sell my S4 for this.

It was never primarily about the money for me, but I sure appreciate it :)
 
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My dad had the chance to try my Model 3 I paid cash in 2019 instead of financing and investing more in TSLA at that moment. Every time I was travelling abroad, he was droving me to the airport as he was living close to the airport and I told him to enjoy driving my Tesla as much as possible when I was gone. It contrasted with his old Buick Rendezvous. He got to see and ride in my Model Y when I gave a test drive to my nephew just before he got admitted to palliative care unit for metastatic gastric cancer, he did not have the strength to drive anymore. He was so eager to see the Cybertruck since he had owned 2 different pick up trucks when we were camping when I was younger. I am so happy he enjoyed driving my Model 3, was it worth $500,000 of TSLA stock? For someone with limited time, I’d say yes.

I will be financing my trimotor cybertruck and will purchase a Trimotor with no hesitation and go camping with the kids and family to give them the passion my dad for camping and for the outdoor. It might be a sounder financial move to put all that money in TSLA but life is shorter than we might think. Don’t hesitate to enjoy your gains from TSLA. My dad has worked 12 hours a day, 7 days a week, 50 weeks a year and is now in palliative care only after a decade of retirement. He still had hundreds of thousand dollars in savings which he earned with hard labor and won’t be enjoying any once of it. Enjoy life everyone.
I remember back in 2014 an older gentleman posted on Tesla forum that he had cancer but was happy that he got to enjoy a few months of owning and driving a Tesla. I purchased my first Tesla after reading that post.
 
I remember back in 2014 an older gentleman posted on Tesla forum that he had cancer but was happy that he got to enjoy a few months of owning and driving a Tesla. I purchased my first Tesla after reading that post.
I had a heart attack on Christmas Eve in 2014. I had taken delivery my first Model S (a P85, one of the first made with Autopilot) at the end of that September, less than three months previous. As the doctors at the hospital were putting me under to do their thing, I remember thinking how glad I was that I hadn't delayed any longer so that at least I'd gotten to drive the future for a little while.

In any case, I recovered and have bought two other Teslas since then. And I still tell people that the only real mistake you can make if you are going to buy your first Tesla is waiting. I've had several hundred people drive my Teslas, so I've talked to quite a few about buying their first. I have no idea if any of them have.

I don't remember if I've told that story here before. Incidentally, that Model S was sold, then totaled in a relatively minor crash, then apparently resuscitated and was last seen driving around Kiev. How it got there I have no idea.
 
...<snip >

I will stick to my central thesis: Tesla has succeeded because people bought their cars, not their stock. If you believe in the mission, that should be a priority for you.

Supporting data point: of all the random Tesla owners I happened to be able to talk to in and around NYC and Northern Calif (near Healdsburg) , maybe 90% bought their Tesla because a friend had one and recommended it, demo'ed it. The rest was for prestige value or some other reason. Only ONE bought it because they appreciated the tech (and could afford it - Model S, ca 2019)
 
Fair enough. But the post you wrote that I responded to made it clear that you could have bought a Tesla since 2018, but of course it would have incredibly expensive because of the stock gains you would have missed out on.

Yep, in case math is hard for you and you need a picture
1634531043091.png


That's a roughly 12x rise from there to here.

and there is this picture

b5ae12df36573e42b321abbb2e5f7c08b277ff999b5938b8add49f6291ffc0c1.png

That shows how much more expensive the model 3 was in 2018

So I made what I thought was a clear choice and parked my money in TSLA waiting for a cheaper entry point for being a Tesla car owner.

Identifying me by me geographic location and telling me I am clueless regarding the incomes and financial situations of people in “flyover country” is a disappointing ad hominem attack and totally besides the point. A lot of assumptions there because of the NYC tag. Typical nowadays.

I will stick to my central thesis: Tesla has succeeded because people bought their cars, not their stock. If you believe in the mission, that should be a priority for you.

Yes, Tesla needs enough people to buy cars that they produce and I never said otherwise. What I said was that you are crazy if you think the quote below makes sense.

"Anyone delaying the purchase of a car they desperately want that is part of a transition to a future they desperately want in order to count their future profits is not thinking straight."

That suggests you aren't looking for enough buyers to cover production, you are looking for a mindset that says buying the car is more important than providing for themselves. Oh and that you love the word "desperately".

Saying I'm not thinking straight because I invested before I started spending my profits is just crazy.

No matter how many times you restate it, I can't go back in time and buy a Tesla before I had the money and that doesn't mean I'm not thinking straight. It means your statement was false.
 
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I've been using a margin loan to enable me to diversify into other high growth stocks and even pick up a few more Tesla shares when the price was low earlier this year. I love the liquidity, but at some point in time, I have to sell something to pay down the margin. As Tesla is enormously concentrated in my portfolio, Tesla shares become the main assets to be sold to pay back the loan. The catch is I want to make payments at an opportune time in terms of share price.

So here's the approach that I've settled on. I think of it as a Tesla wall. I set a certain limit $X (several million) for my Tesla position. I set a sell limit order to sell a certain number of shares when the price is high enough that after the sell, I still have a position of $X. Thus, I'm allowing my position to advance a few points beyond the wall, but then I sell it back to the wall.

I can change the wall at any point in time and I have only shifted it up. My latest sell was at $838.71. But now my main balance is finally low enough that I've increased the wall such that I won't sell any more until Tesla is above $1000.

I used to be solidly buy-and-hold, but if you hold Tesla long enough, eventually it will make sense to trim a little. One thing I like about this approach is that it does give me latitude to repurchase shares whenever we might see a meaningful pull back. Just like I trim when my position is over $X, I can also buy back if my position falls back below, say 90%×$X. The wall works both ways. I still love backing the Cybertruck up to load up on underpriced shares.

In retirement, we plan to live on a small percentage of our Tesla position. So we'll use the wall and margin account to maintain a growing Tesla position. The amount that we need to live on is a much smaller percentage than I expect Tesla to grow over the next 10 years. So the wall can keep growing!

The important thing is that wall gives me a more disciplined approach growing the Tesla position over time while being able to enjoy the income that such a large position makes possible. It's okay to have your cake and eat it too!
I think a lot of us struggle with the decision to sell shares in a company whose mission is so important and which has made many of us wealthy beyond our wildest dreams-at least on paper. But at some point FOMO should give way to a much more inevitable and inexorable reality, YOLO. So I implore all of my TMC brothers and sisters to take a step back and enjoy some of the rewards of both investing in and holding through the terrifying dips and dizzying heights. Provide for your loved ones, contribute to your favorite charity and have some fun!

I did sell some shares to buy my P3D back in 2018. If I stop to think about what that beauty cost in stark terms of TSLA valuation, I might kick myself. But the sheer joy that ride gave me every time I settled into the driver’s seat is irreplaceable. And the pleasure I derived when letting others drive it and experience the giddy delight of a launch in near silence or the killer sound system, knowing I’d often converted a cynic or someone simply under the spell of the MSM’s anti-Tesla spin, was simply priceless. And yes, that purchase confirmed my thesis and commitment to Tesla and further TSLA accumulation, but really, I didn’t need much convincing by late 2018 when I bought it.

Now, I’ve since left California and moved to Phuket, Thailand, which forced me to sell “Free Willy” due to the crazy import duties here. So I desperately await the arrival of the MIC Model Y to these shores! Fortunately, I sold the car to one of my best friends and his family and they in turn get endless joy from the car. The two preteen boys are complete Tesla/TSLA devotees, driven in large part by ambushing mom with fart mode and playing games while taking turns sitting in the driver’s seat in the garage. And mom and dad opened small TSLA accounts for them that they follow religiously. They ask mom and dad for more shares for birthdays and Christmas and Hanukkah rather than toys! So I continue to get pleasure from that expenditure of shares even though I haven’t seen the car in over two years!

But that experience was only the appetizer. I sold many more shares last year after last year’s explosive post-split rise in TSLA to fund my dream home. And unlike Steven the Irishman from “Braveheart” it’s not my island. Nor is it a fortified island redoubt secretly being built somewhere at an undisclosed location by Krugerrand. But, it is on a hill on an island.😎 More importantly, every morning I wake up to an awe-inspiring sea view and end the day sitting in a sala overlooking my infinity-edged pool taking in the often jaw-dropping and sublime sunsets of the Andaman Sea on the west coast of Phuket. Now I did partially fund this with the 1.6% margin loan I secured with Schwab backed by my largely TSLA-driven portfolio rather than cash out an even higher number of shares. Instead I sold some BTC to pay down a substantial percentage of that loan. And yes, I’ve missed a little of BTC’s current rise, but at the same time the TSLA shares I didn’t sell have done very well over the past month and will continue to grow far into the future. I’m not sure I can say the same for crypto and I certainly don’t see as clear a path for it as I do Tesla.

I share this story not to make anyone jealous, but rather to drive home the point that not one extra minute is promised or guaranteed. So, do not let paralysis caused by fear of selling some shares prevent you from enjoying the precious moments that the sale of some shares can provide. And do not over analyze said sale and start calculating what your net worth would’ve been if you’d just held on for another day or month or year!

This IS an advice!

And again, I cannot say thanks enough to the founders of this forum, the tireless moderators and the many extraordinary contributors who have shared their amazing knowledge to the benefit of all who would listen and encouraged the rest of us to do our own due diligence. We are remarkably lucky to have seen the future early and found a forum to continually test and evaluate our thesis for what can and should be a bright future for all, both individually and collectively as a species.

Profound gratitude. 🙏
 
Fair enough. But the post you wrote that I responded to made it clear that you could have bought a Tesla since 2018, but of course it would have incredibly expensive because of the stock gains you would have missed out on.

Identifying me by me geographic location and telling me I am clueless regarding the incomes and financial situations of people in “flyover country” is a disappointing ad hominem attack and totally besides the point. A lot of assumptions there because of the NYC tag. Typical nowadays.

I will stick to my central thesis: Tesla has succeeded because people bought their cars, not their stock. If you believe in the mission, that should be a priority for you.
You are correct. I bought my 3 in 2018 when the company literally needed people to buy cars or it would be insolvent. I like to think I helped save the company, and because of it I earned the gains I made in my stock holdings in 2019-2020. You have to risk big to win big, after all!
 
You are correct. I bought my 3 in 2018 when the company literally needed people to buy cars or it would be insolvent. I like to think I helped save the company, and because of it I earned the gains I made in my stock holdings in 2019-2020. You have to risk big to win big, after all!
You could say the same for all the people that bought roadsters before the Model S and all the people that bought Model S between then and 2019.

Having buyers for the in place production capacity is key to getting to profitability and staying profitable.

I never said everyone would be better off following my example, I just said for me, being in a lower income situation to start it was worth investing instead of getting a car until I could join you later.

I'm very grateful for every person that ever bought a Tesla of any shape, size, or color. I'm not showing jealousy or remorse. I'm just telling you a choice I made in the past that was relevant to a lower key discussion before it got taken to the next level by people playing devils advocate.

And I'm cool with devils advocates to move the conversation forward, just don't make it an attack on me because I happened to mention my situation. The first negative comment in the chain that crossed the line was the one that used the phrase "not thinking straight".
 
My take is that this is more for his political stance in Germany - recall, he's had to tough it out with his superiors (the Porsche clan or ?) - IIRC at one point he threatened to leave if his contract wasn't extended (so he would have time to see his initiatives yield some results). He won that part, but I'm sure he still has foes all around both within VW and outside. So his Elon invite can be seen as an offensive defense vs his detractors; and to help justify the always tough layoffs/ reorganizations he probably wants/ needs to implement.

UPDATE: actually this is probably way bigger - a collaboration between Tesla and VW, at least for FSD - which entails a good level of hardware integration - and as to the impact on TSLA, it can only be very positive given that even if VW were at half the capacity of equivalent Tesla, they still would not be able to produce enough cars to meet demand. Seems like the friendly relationship between Elon and Diess is bearing fruit iwth a Win Win development for both. (FYI: started at least in 2018 when Elon was looking at a potential sale of Tesla to VW not sure if it was rumor only and if that ever was confirmed).

Now if the buy the rumor, sell the news happens it'd be epic. Not holding my breath, nor dismissing it either. So .. just holding and enjoying that real life really serious impact ongoing show. A good vibes show, with a win for the good guys (Elon and Diess) against the villains (greedy rich selfish and not too bright leaders/ owners/ POI people of influence on both sides of the Atlantic).

See

EXPOSED: Tesla’s Plan To SAVE VW From DISASTER


TSLA.VW.EMSK.jpg
 
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"FORD is to invest £230million transforming one of its UK hubs into a battery plant for electric cars and vans. Bosses aim to make 250,000 EV power units a year at Halewood from mid-2024 in a move that could protect 500 jobs and create another 700. ... Ford is one of the UK's largest exporters"

- This is being widely reported in the UK media this morning.
- They haven't disclosed how much of the £230m (~$300m) is a taxpayer bribe but you can bet it is an embarassingly large slice.
- So in 2024 they might have a battery plant that is at half the scale required to be competitive in supplying one auto-model line at the new minimum competitive scale of 500k cars/yr.
- Which indicates that there will be at least one other battery line in continental EU.
- And most likely there will be no vehicle assy line in UK, just as Ford no longer has one now.
- If Ford is still around to deliver on this effort by then. Or if the UK still exists by then.
 
Just had an epiphany about Elon’s rabbit rocket tweet that is based on zero technical analysis etc.

You know what bunnies do ? They multiply and they are fast. Rockets ? well they take us to the moon, and beyond.

I think Elon is foreshadowing a multiplication of the number of shares (like bunnies)- a stock split announcement or a hint in that direction; perhaps as early as on the earnings call ?that will take us to the moon

Call it wishful thinking, or optimistic prognostication.

Not advice.

Onwards and upwards!
 
While *long term* I don’t think splits do a whole lot for market cap, seems like they definitely help with short term and might be a catalyst to shake some unrecognized value out of the stock.

Most important to me, it gives me a bit more flexibility with options trading!
 
as @gene @jhm and others have all said, driving a Tesla has been one of the quickest motivations for retail investors to buy TSLA. Mine was too, from my first Tesla drive in 2012 and much more after my first Tesla ownership in late 2014.

It would be interesting to know how much TSLA holdings are from owners. Probably there are institutional ones also. Elon has said retail investors are better informed than are institutional ones. I am confident that is true.
 
I've been using a margin loan to enable me to diversify into other high growth stocks and even pick up a few more Tesla shares when the price was low earlier this year. I love the liquidity, but at some point in time, I have to sell something to pay down the margin. As Tesla is enormously concentrated in my portfolio, Tesla shares become the main assets to be sold to pay back the loan. The catch is I want to make payments at an opportune time in terms of share price.

So here's the approach that I've settled on. I think of it as a Tesla wall. I set a certain limit $X (several million) for my Tesla position. I set a sell limit order to sell a certain number of shares when the price is high enough that after the sell, I still have a position of $X. Thus, I'm allowing my position to advance a few points beyond the wall, but then I sell it back to the wall.

I can change the wall at any point in time and I have only shifted it up. My latest sell was at $838.71. But now my main balance is finally low enough that I've increased the wall such that I won't sell any more until Tesla is above $1000.

I used to be solidly buy-and-hold, but if you hold Tesla long enough, eventually it will make sense to trim a little. One thing I like about this approach is that it does give me latitude to repurchase shares whenever we might see a meaningful pull back. Just like I trim when my position is over $X, I can also buy back if my position falls back below, say 90%×$X. The wall works both ways. I still love backing the Cybertruck up to load up on underpriced shares.

In retirement, we plan to live on a small percentage of our Tesla position. So we'll use the wall and margin account to maintain a growing Tesla position. The amount that we need to live on is a much smaller percentage than I expect Tesla to grow over the next 10 years. So the wall can keep growing!

The important thing is that wall gives me a more disciplined approach growing the Tesla position over time while being able to enjoy the income that such a large position makes possible. It's okay to have your cake and eat it too!
If anyone needs to sell $TSLA for cash then I sincerely hope they're doing it via covered calls - maybe, just maybe, you make enough money from the premiums that you don't need to sell the shares. Just sayin'

Likewise for income going forwards there's really no need to deplete your capital