Time for a little "Thank you" and some thoughts into 2050
I read basically everything in this tread, I even remember a time when the tread was recreated on a yearly basis, feels like a lifetime ago. Usually, I don't feel capable to provide any extra knowledge, but I would like to talk about something which usually can't be packed in classic fundamental metrics. Obviously, it has been discussed here already:
A company’s mindset or Teslas ability to get *sugar* done
You can copy great tech rather easily, but it is magnitudes more difficult to change a company’s culture, the way people think, discuss, communicate, and commit towards a common goal.
We obviously want to focus on the positive change in the following: (From great culture to bad culture only needs a new management and some bad investment decisions and you ruined a company within days).
To change the mindset and to get a really committed team together from an existing one which is not really committed is probably almost impossible.
See VW, I guess Herbert Diess is spending sleepless nights about how to change the way VW thinks and gets challenges done (or not).
The best option to get to a ROIC in Teslas ballpark would probably be to sell every single brand together with their debts within the group except the Rimac part Porsche holds and maybe a few young "unburned" engineers and hope that some cash is left after everything is sold and start from scratch.
But this "easy" option is obviously not available, therefor he must try to change the course of this Behemoth from within. Is this possible? Maybe if Tesla doesn't exist, but given they only have a few years left to transform their way to create innovation and get it in use, I don't think any of the old guard will exist in that form in a decade because they can’t change their mindset fast enough.
Do you remember Standard Oil?
I expect Tesla doesn't exist as a company in 2050 anymore. Why? Because Tesla will be Standard Oil'ed by then because they will have become way too dominant. 2030 starts in a bit more than 8 years, Tesla will then already sell more cars then VW, Toyota and Mercedes combined.
Does anybody think Tesla will stop scaling at 20 M. cars?
They will have more money to invest than any other company on the planet, they will have the best talent. Who is going to tell them: Ok, STOP! We want to have competition; you are all fired.
I, as a chairsholder will not, you probably neither?
So, what happens if they scale further with the speed of the year 2030 (random guess: let’s say 5 M. car production added in 2030) and let’s be conservative and say Tesla predicts, they can't grow exponential forever because the full market is the limit, so we just keep the speed without further increase.
In 2040 Tesla would produce (10 years, 5 M. each = 50 M. cars + 20 M. 2030 production =>) 70 M. cars/year.
This is probably already more than requested from the market because the cars can be used far longer than today.
This leaves no room for anybody else in the transportation market.
I currently really don't see an obvious second scenario. Some small highly specialised company’s might survive just because Tesla doesn't care.
There was a "few" years ago a crazy guy called Hannibal, this madlad managed to get some elephants into the roman empire, on the land way, over the alps.
Tesla doesn't have to go that far; VW Headquarters is only a good two hours ride from Giga Berlin.
Thank you all for your knowledge and wisdom!
PS: The last time I posted I was traveling the world from Switzland to Giga Shanghai, Fremont and back, unfortunately we couldn't make it to the factory tour because of the pandemic. And rather late then never big shout out to our
@BrianZ BrianZ. He already booked the tour to take us, 3 strangers from the internet, with him. If you are ever in Zurich Switzerland, write me, I will invite you for dinner!