Why not 4680's (from Kato Rd) exclusively in Performance MY, 2170's in Long Range MY until 4680's ramp. All North American Performance MY made in Austin (ship the batteries). Or, all North American Performance MY made in Fremont (ship the front castings). Europe could have a similar split with Made in Berlin Performance MY using imported 4680's and Long Range MY from China. This should keep margins high with the higher price Performance models.
That's a possibility, in my opinion it all depends on three factors: 1/ how fast Kato Rd is at producing 4680's. 2/ how easy it is to switch production lines from MY 2170 interim pack to MY 4680 structural pack, and 3/ how soon 4680 production in Berlin & Ausin is achieved.
Considering the current guesstimates, and Elon going Full Send, pushing for faster everything, my take is:
- some 4680 allocated to the low volume prototype Semi /CT (and Plaid X dev) but most of the built up inventory held to speed up the initial ramp of 4680 MY's once the production lines of 4680's are 98% ready, aka once the bigger steel roller issue is fixed (from 90% ready as explained in last Q2 earnings Q&A)
Performance MY would be first cars out of GF Berliin.
- GF Austin churns out ASAP MY's with intermediate "backup plan" 2170's with improved chemistry and battery pack more compatible with structural pack
- GF Berlin best case scenario gets 4680's running in time for MY with 4680 structural packs; else go the Austin route. Because Berlin is where Tesla's Grohman automation engineers are located
As usual, many new developments coming up, 2Q22 also looks like it may be when the elusive M2 (or MZ) gets in production, using BYD's Blade battery packs. see separate
BYD Blade Batteries thread
For the SP, long term, all good - meantime, anything goes as you all know
Regarding Tesla Energy, interesting development re new iron/air tech
unveiled by startup Form Energy (backed by Bezos too)
" ..
Form Energy's first commercial product is a rechargeable iron-air battery capable of delivering electricity for 100 hours at system costs competitive with conventional power plants and at less than 1/10th the cost of lithium-ion. Made from iron, one of the safest, cheapest, and most abundant minerals on Earth, this front-of-the-meter battery can be used continuously over a multi-day period and will enable a reliable, secure, and fully renewable electric grid year-round. "