Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[gabeincal]

Congrats. You are a braver man than I. I don't want to hold calls that span over earnings.

Only time will tell whether it was a wise thing. I'm hoping for a crash by Fri mid-day, then rebuy them perhaps, wait for a pop on Monday and resell them. Or hold through the whole thing. I seriously doubt that we'll be trading >800 by next Friday even though the earnings report will be stellar for sure.

 

[Krugerrand]

If we're being honest and this is a safe space to share my feelings........I'm kinda hoping we cross $1200/$1300 so my covered calls get executed on most of my shares. Following TSLA this close day in and day out for a month is wearing on me. And F'ing with my work.

Would not be opposed to sitting on tons of cash and just ignoring the market for two years. Maybe buy back in on a dip to $1100 in late 2023 when Trump officially announces.

No sympathy. You’ve willingly created your own situation. If you’d just bought and held shares -

 

[Nocturnal]

Finally getting around to registering with Say to back earnings questions. Rob Mauer has a few good ones as usual. I also like Emmet's question about the crypto space.

Biden announces tax credit for businesses giving paid leave for Covid vaccinations and recovery

Biden in a speech touted that the U.S. is set to hit 200 million Covid shots administered since he took office.

www.cnbc.com

there are concerns that the number of people wanting vaccines in US is going down. Time for some carrots

The anti-vax movement has really swollen their ranks thanks to COVID...which is ironic.

 

[juanmedina]

Congrats. You are a braver man than I. I don't want to hold calls that span over earnings.

Early earning sell off + IV crush; he might have a chance to close them early for some profit. I sold a couple of those too just now but I am not brave enough to sell those calls on my entire Tesla holdings.

 

[capster]

I love the logical positivity of your comments and wish that were true, but I'm skeptical. We are living in a post-truth world where data and facts are tossed aside for opinion and political posturing to support whatever agenda people have. Especially these days, people show a willingness to actively choose a path counter to their own self interest or even safety, if it supports their worldview. I'm hoping for he best, but worried about how FSD regulation/approval will play out.

As I’ve said here for years, I’m optimistic about the regulatory side of things for autonomous driving—much more so than I’d be about other technologies.

The value of FSD is enormous in many areas:

* The aggregate time people waste driving is mind boggling. Freeing folks from the task of driving has inherent value. Allowing drivers to work, shop, and play would create its own economic mini-boom. (I’ve always thought this is why Google/Alpha Bet is attempting to solve autonomy)

* Reducing accidents as well as road rage would significantly reduce the death toll and number of injuries on our roadways. This would prevent a lot of human misery and, at a guess, save $100’s of billions of dollars in foregone medical costs.

* The deleterious health affects of commuting would be reduced if people could attend to other things even though they are still in the car.

* But wait, there’s more: There’ll be national security and resilience benefits. Tunnels will, together with autonomy (inside and outside the tunnels), create a virtuous cycle of growth and regeneration in transportation and land use.

I expect jurisdictions—nations, states/provinces, counties, cities—to compete to allow autonomy once it is clear FSD works.

 

[CHGolferJim]

It's such a joke... Sold 805 covered calls for my entire portfolio for next Fri at $10.40

Was thinking the exact same thing, but then considered the odds that shares push past $815 and keep going is just too high to be comfortable with the trade. Have been on covered calls vacation for several weeks, and wonder when I can resume.

 

[dl003]

Right where we were March 1.......before 10 different amazingly positive things happened.

But the pool of holders have shrunk as people were getting margin calls left and right. Margin debts are still going down and so we might need to adjust our baseline a bit. So far, call IVs have not moved yet. This is very different from 12/29-1/8. Shows market's appetite for risks have gone down. Let's see what tomorrow & Friday bring.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

MM's quietly trying to cover.....

......share price action Friday morning.

Until someone just dropped 500,000 shares, three days before earnings . Edit: That’s a $350M trade, on a down trend, when minutes earlier the SP was at the day’s highest. Who has that kind of stock and trades that stupid? Ok, I’ve read others talk about manipulation, but this seems flagrant. @Artful Dodger @Papafox. Comments?

 

[Jack6591]

As I’ve said here for years, I’m optimistic about the regulatory side of things for autonomous driving—much more so than I’d be about other technologies.

The value of FSD is enormous in many areas:

* The aggregate time people waste driving is mind boggling. Freeing folks from the task of driving has inherent value. Allowing drivers to work, shop, and play would create its own economic mini-boom. (I’ve always thought this is why Google/Alpha Bet is attempting to solve autonomy)

* Reducing accidents as well as road rage would significantly reduce the death toll and number of injuries on our roadways. This would prevent a lot of human misery and, at a guess, save $100’s of billions of dollars in foregone medical costs.

* The deleterious health affects of commuting would be reduced if people could attend to other things even though they are still in the car.

* But wait, there’s more: There’ll be national security and resilience benefits. Tunnels will, together with autonomy (inside and outside the tunnels), create a virtuous cycle of growth and regeneration in transportation and land use.

I expect jurisdictions—nations, states/provinces, counties, cities—to compete to allow autonomy

once it is clear FSD works.

Were there only a road-rage vaccine...

 

[MikeAtkinson]

@KarenRei tweeted that compared to the end of the first month in Q3 2020, there were 4 ships delivering Tesla // Q42020 = 2 ships // Q1 2021=3 ships , and now for end of first month for Q2 2021 there are 6 ships.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1384848832098353153

According to Tesla Carriers there are already 11 car carriers scheduled from San Francisco, and one from Shanghai. It is likely that there will be 3 car carriers from Shanghai like last quarter, and one from New York. That makes a total of 15, two more than any other quarter.

If Asia Pacific gets three carriers and Europe 12, then Europe deliveries will be ~20% up QoQ.

Everything looking good for a record Q2

 

[Curt Renz]

WSJ - 14 minutes ago: Biden to Unwind Trump Auto Emissions Policy

Excerpt:

The Biden administration is moving to end a legal battle with California over the state’s authority to regulate motor-vehicle emissions, setting the stage for stricter regulations on the auto industry, according to people briefed on those plans.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Until someone just dropped 500,000 shares, three days before earnings . Edit: That’s a $350M trade, on a down trend, when minutes earlier the SP was at the day’s highest. Who has that kind of stock and trades that stupid? Ok, I’ve read others talk about manipulation, but this seems flagrant. @Artful Dodger @Papafox. Comments?

Some call it manipulation, some call it market making. That's Ken Griffin creating 500k synthetic shares and selling them, he'll need to buy them back at some point. I don't know the MM world too well, but it feels like sound logic to me.

I'm just unclear on how long a MM can afford to hold something like that on their balance sheet. Is it purely a function of their risk appetite or do synthetic shares have a half-life and need to be covered within a certain window?

Who knows. Any way you slice it, all the stops are being pulled out to tamp down SP rise, so I'm obviously gonna bet the other way.

 

[ZeApelido]

Ford temporarily shutting down multiple plants because of chip shortage.

That's gonna leave a mark.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1384926585485201410

 

[canoemore]

Ford temporarily shutting down multiple plants because of chip shortage.

That's gonna leave a mark.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1384926585485201410

And naturally they're up >2%

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I'd love for someone at CNBC to ask Ford how many chips they ordered and when. Show me a chart of historical chip orders and production, I think you'll see the root of the "shortage".

 

[Artful Dodger]

And naturally they're up >2%

Yeah, it's all part of Ford's contribution to 50% CO2 emissions reduction by 2030...

... and they're getting serious: Some F-150 production is part of the curtailment.

 

[lklundin]

Obviously the FUD scare is to try and prevent FSD from ever turning on at all. So they're trying to anger the public, hoping for a protest no doubt. I could see something develop there, then tie it to an "Uber/Lyft jobs will Vanish" narrative. Volatility ahead.

Partly because of this, I'm considering offloading a bit on Mon. But whatever I let go, some of that needs to get back in the game. That's 2x hard to do, but I'll give it a shot. Maybe 15% or 20% shaving. There will be FSD related dip opportunities in the future I'm sure. I just don't know the baseline yet. What became clear to me the past month is that I am holding too much TSLA and can't buy the dips as well as I'd like.

Actually, as communications director at PAVE Edward Niedermeyer is hard at work to actually have the government regulate against Tesla's FSD - and today he spilled the beans with "the possibility of regulatory action around driver assistance inspired by the Tesla situation". Not that I think this will go anywhere, but the effort is clearly there. Who funds this effort?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1384906773782478854

 

[CLK350]

Call to action - do vote your shares for Robert Maurer's Question on when the DWS (Dojo Web Services) will be in place.
This is, IMHO and that of some others well versed in AI/ NN tech, a HUGE new source of revenues, on par with Amazon's AWS.

Tesla's SP is valued based on earnings and future expected earnings; DWS will be online and profitable way before the full FSD stack is finished, approved, sold and monetized. Elon probably will announce that on AI day as tweeted. Adding your shares to this question of Robert M., and asking esp. your whale contacts to add theirs may help get more momentum to crash the FUDsters 800/ 850/ 900/ ... barrier at THIS event.
It will also help break the FSD accident narrative

See more details on my previous post on DWS. I have tried alerted a few others, but so far only Rob Maurer seems to have gotten it - he probably has the better support team. Again, FSD is great but DWS is an equally exciting entrant in the AI Machine Learning space, where currently Amazon, Nvidia and Google have offerings. It is not going to happen in many years, more like next year - AI day is going to be another talent recruiting tool for Tesla.

So, vote your shares, and get others to vote - this is free, and a great way to counter the FSD fraudsters from a new angle.

 

[Skryll]

I'd love for someone at CNBC to ask Ford how many chips they ordered and when. Show me a chart of historical chip orders and production, I think you'll see the root of the "shortage".

Chip shortage or demand issue / mis-forecast. Maybe as interesting as the change in chips ordering is the change in customer demand for legacy gas cars in a covid and post-covid environment

 

[Nocturnal]

Call to action - do vote your shares for Robert Maurer's Question on when the DWS (Dojo Web Services) will be in place.
This is, IMHO and that of some others well versed in AI/ NN tech, a HUGE new source of revenues, on par with Amazon's AWS.

Tesla's SP is valued based on earnings and future expected earnings; DWS will be online and profitable way before the full FSD stack is finished, approved and sold/ accepted. Elon probably will announce that on AI day as tweeted. Adding your shares to this question of Robert M., and asking esp. your whale contacts to add theirs may help get more momentum to crash the FUDsters 750/ 800/ 850 barrier at THIS event.

See more details on my previous post on DWS. I have tried alerted a few others, but so far only Rob Maurer seems to have gotten it - he probably has the better support team. Again, FSD is great but DWS is an equally exciting entrant in the AI Machine Learning space, where currently Amazon, Nvidia and Google have offerings. It is not going to happen in many years, more like next year - AI day is going to be another talent recruiting tool for Tesla.

So, vote your shares, and get others to vote - this is free, and a great way to help Tesla's mission.

View attachment 655741

I backed that question as well. Most others are just the same old stuff but this is interesting.