Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dreadnought]

Brings up another point. I've seen some talk around(mostly from analysts) that think Tesla's EV credit revenue will go down in 2021. Yet all of the evidence I've seen points to the contrary in that EU restrictions and penalties get stricter and more costly in 2021 and 2022. Some were speculation that the Euro auto makers were gaming the system in a way to lower their 2021 and 2022 requirements.

Given the issues that we're seeing from EU auto makers, especially VW in terms of production, I'm pretty confident that they're going to badly miss their targets and Tesla's ev credit revenue will be noticeably higher every quarter in 2021 compared to 2020.

ICE sales dropped by 20% last year due to COVID (and possibly also because more people realized that EVs are superior tech). More incumbents would've missed their targets had their EV sales been measured against 2019 numbers.
Last year, the most polluting 5% were excluded from the calculation (WTF!). From this year on, every car counts. So called "super credits", which is LEV cars with less than 50g CO2/100 km counting twice are now reduced to a factor of 1.67.

Emissions targets get tougher this year. OEMs like VW with a solid plan for BEV ramp-up should still be able to meet them, now no longer incentivised to miss them and get a favourable adjustment factor for their individual target. Those 10 "electrified" models from Stellantis are not going to cut it. Rather, Tesla's sales are now part of a bigger pool to offset.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

ICE sales dropped by 20% last year due to COVID (and possibly also because more people realized that EVs are superior tech). More incumbents would've missed their targets had their EV sales been measured against 2019 numbers.
Last year, the most polluting 5% were excluded from the calculation (WTF!). From this year on, every car counts. So called "super credits", which is LEV cars with less than 50g CO2/100 km counting twice are now reduced to a factor of 1.67.

Emissions targets get tougher this year. OEMs like VW with a solid plan for BEV ramp-up should still be able to meet them, now no longer incentivised to miss them and get a favourable adjustment factor for their individual target. Those 10 "electrified" models from Stellantis are not going to cut it. Rather, Tesla's sales are now part of a bigger pool to offset.

I've seen this theory repeated often.....that traditional OEM's will be able to just scale production now that they purposely limited production before. I believe battery supply issues are going to rear its head in a major way by Q3 of this year, if not Q2, when all of the traditional OEM's try to ramp production. I'd like to think the traditional OEM's know what they're doing, but they've clearly shown they do not understand the in's and out's of EV production. The ID3 production ramp has been anything but "solid". Quite embarrassing tbh.

 

[Nocturnal]

Don't forget, stonks CAN go down too. Let's not be too sad about it staying flat.

I just can't understand how a road system that allows people with 1 eye to drive succesfully and legally, requires lidar. In theory one good camera is enough. The problem isn't the amount of sensors but the processing in the backend.
Not saying Tesla's setup isn't better than a one-eyed person that can turn it's head. But it's pretty obvious it should be technically solvable with just one camera.

Yup. Our roads are literally designed to be navigated by a visual system. On top of that, evolution has demonstrated that navigation using the visible spectrum is the optimal design for our planet. (on the surface with light)

—

Mod: before groundhog day starts again, this is the last post on camera vs. lidar.

 

[Drezil]

Can you clarify which way this particular change moves the demand for credits?

It sounds like ICE makers will need to buy more credits due to this change (all else being equal)?

It is a bit more complicated (being the EU -.-)

You sell a car. This emits x grams of CO2 ON PAPER. Then you have a weight-adjust-formula (heavier cars can use more co2 than smaller city cars).

Then you take that weighted average of the sales.
The target-number of CO2 is currently (2020+2021) 95g/km. After that it is dropping every few years.
If you sell an electric car this counts as 0 grams. For the first year (and maybe also 2021, but i have to check that) electric vehicles get "super-credits". Basically every sold EV counts as 2 sold.

For every gram you deviate to the upside from the target-number you have to pay €-Amount FOR EVERY CAR SOLD.

In short: there are no changes for 2021 (other than super-credits maybe) TARGET numbers.

BUT in 2020 the PAPER-Number above was the one given by the NEDC test-cycle from a few years back. That always underestimated the emissions. In 2021 this will be changed to the WLTP-paper-number. And THAT NUMBER is on average 20% higher than the same number on the same car in the NEDC-cycle.

So the sold cars will emit a lot more CO2 on paper. And that has to be dealt in some way. Either pay the fine, sell more EVs or buy credits.

The only thing regarding TSLA is if TSLA still gets "super-credits" for the vehicles produced or just "normal" credits. Or some weighted thing in between.
And a Model X brings more credits than a model 3 (because weight is a factor .. ).

That is also the reason why everyone builds electric SUVs .. because that gives the most credits per car sold.

The 2020 calculation with examples (in german) was done nearly a year ago by nextmove:
Flottenverbrauch 2020: Schicksalsjahr der Automobilindustrie? - including youtube-video & some examples on the fines/benefits of some exemplary models

 

[Drezil]

i just saw: in 2021 the super-credits get reduced from 2 to 1.66, in 2022 from 1.66 to 1.33 and from 2023 going forward EVs are "normal" cars in the calculations.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Gigafactory Austin at 6 months review:

 

[MC3OZ]

According to the latest Shanghai video from Wu Wa the factory will not close down the full Chinese New Year. Giving some workers the chance to earn double or triple pay for working holidays. Four days will be used for equipment maintenance.

Also from watching the video, doesn't look like the eastern extension is being set up for new construction. Looks more like they have moved all construction offices and workers accommodations there to make room to build the last of phase 2 (or is it 2.5)? Might still be used for parking as well.

I think you and Dodger could both be right here.

To me it makes sense to move vehicle staging and parking to the East side of the new bridge in this area, far away from the main factory.
Car carriers no longer need to drive though the factory to pick up cars. The new staging area could be split north/south for domestic/export.

Why they would do that is, they could build something in the current parking/staging areas.

On the west side of the new bridge closest to the existing factory is plenty of land they could use to build new production facilities.

This would be production faculties for the new 25K vehicle, it is going to share some parts / facilities with the existing factory. so locating as close as possible is optimal.

I don't think they necessarily need to build a massive factory for super high volumes for the 25K model, something around the current volumes of Chinese Model 3 production might be fine. After the initial ramp they can plan a much higher volume plant somewhere else in China.

One interesting speculation is how many 25K vehicles Tesla intends to build. They did state an intention for specifically Chinese and German designed models.

 

[Curt Renz]

Teslarati - today: Tesla’s 4680 cell production line hints that Elon Musk’s 'Alien Dreadnought' is coming to life

Excerpt:

Tesla recently shared some footage of its next-generation 4680 battery cells being produced. The video, which seems to be taken from the electric car maker’s pilot Roadrunner line, suggests that Tesla’s 4680 battery manufacturing system may very well be Elon Musk’s elusive “Alien Dreadnought” concept coming to life.

Tesla - Sunday:

 

[Khamul]

 

[Christine69420]

@Christine600, @LN1_Casey
curiosity asks, what is this ".....Forbidden(tm)....." stock price?
and whot's this stock split thinking?

It's forbidden. So I'm afraid if I tell I have to give up my firstborn share or something.

The stock split thing? It could happen if Tesla want to have a suitable share price for the DOW. And/or there are some shorts to rip. But who knows?

 

[2daMoon]

This is Rob Maurer interviewing Dave Lee.

This is long, and Dave's insight on what shaped his choices and where he see's Tesla going and the logic behind it are interesting.

 

[ggies07]

View attachment 629531

Cover the world in bamboo. Bam, Done! Overnight millionaire.

 

[LN1_Casey]

@Christine600, @LN1_Casey
curiosity asks, what is this ".....Forbidden(tm)....." stock price?
and whot's this stock split thinking?

It's Elon Musk's 2nd favorite number. The one that references illicit drugs.

As for the SP split, it's mostly conjecture since the cost per share has dramatically increased since the last split, and as it gets higher, more people will assume a split is incoming, particularly since Tesla split before.

 

[MC3OZ]

Cover the world in bamboo. Bam, Done! Overnight millionaire.

Or grow algae, when can then be used to produce food, feedstock, fish food, fertilizer and fuel, then invest Elon's 100M in Roadsters...

 

[mickificki]

This is Rob Maurer interviewing Dave Lee.

This is long, and Dave's insight on what shaped his choices and where he see's Tesla going and the logic behind it are interesting.

@DaveT I’ve already had a profound respect for Dave but watching this gave me an even greater respect. Thank you for making society a better place.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Is this Elon mocking the idea of CC or is it legit support?

 

[Curt Renz]

CNBC - 2 hours ago:

Cramer at 48-second mark in response to Nio question, "I am in the Tesla camp."

 

[Singuy]

Is this Elon mocking the idea of CC or is it legit support?

Probably both.

Musk is looking for scalability so the ideas better be easy to adopt and scalable. I think 99.9% of people will stumble with this key feature as they think of complex ways to solve the issue.

 

[AudubonB]

Is this Elon mocking the idea of CC or is it legit support?

With all that Mr Musk has repeated over the years I have been following him, I cannot believe that effective carbon capture does not rank supremely high on his list of what is important for mankind.

Given my understanding of the socioindustrial processes presently ocurring, I am quite certain I know WHAT the winning solution is. Most unfortunately, I have not been able to come up with HOW to effect that.

Summary: no soup for me.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Is this Elon mocking the idea of CC or is it legit support?

Anyone paying attention knows that we are now far past the point where we can avoid catastrophic climate change without carbon sequestration. This has to be legit support, I'm not a smart man and even I know our species won't survive unless we figure out how to mass sequester carbon.

The trick is to do so without a Snowpiercer Scenario occurring.