Brings up another point. I've seen some talk around(mostly from analysts) that think Tesla's EV credit revenue will go down in 2021. Yet all of the evidence I've seen points to the contrary in that EU restrictions and penalties get stricter and more costly in 2021 and 2022. Some were speculation that the Euro auto makers were gaming the system in a way to lower their 2021 and 2022 requirements.
Given the issues that we're seeing from EU auto makers, especially VW in terms of production, I'm pretty confident that they're going to badly miss their targets and Tesla's ev credit revenue will be noticeably higher every quarter in 2021 compared to 2022.
I've been trying to find out what's gonna happen from 2022 and the next few years in regard to pooling and costs for ICE manufacturers.
Can't say I've figured out much but I did come across this link that has some info on 2025 forward that I haven't seen mentioned anywhere before.
CO₂ emission performance standards for cars and vans (2020 onwards) - Climate Action - European Commission
Here's a very interesting part
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Incentive mechanism for zero- and low-emission vehicles (ZLEV)
A ZLEV is defined in the Regulation as a passenger car or a van with CO2 emissions between 0 and 50 g/km.
To incentivise the uptake of ZLEV, a crediting system is introduced from 2025 on.
The specific CO2 emission target of a manufacturer will be relaxed if its share of ZLEV registered in a given year exceeds the following
benchmarks:
- Cars: 15% ZLEV from 2025 on and 35% ZLEV from 2030 on
- Vans: 15% ZLEV from 2025 on and 30% ZLEV from 2030 on
A one percentage point exceedance of the ZLEV benchmark will increase the manufacturer’s CO2 target (in g CO2/km) by one percent. The target relaxation is capped at maximum 5% to safeguard the environmental integrity of the Regulation.
For calculating the ZLEV share in a manufacturer’s fleet, an accounting rule applies. This gives a greater weight to ZLEV with lower CO2 emissions.
In addition, for cars only, during the period 2025 to 2030, a greater weight is given to ZLEV registered in Member States with a low ZLEV uptake in 2017, and this as long as the ZLEV share in the Member State’s fleet of newly registered cars does not exceed 5%.
Pooling, exemptions and derogations
The provisions on pooling between manufacturers are the same as under the previous Regulations.
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So this seems to be a new system replacing or complimenting the current system for how emissions are regulated now, starting in 2025. It sure looks like many of the ICE manufacturers will have a hard time getting to more than 15% of their cars being under 50 g/km in 2025.
Anyone have any more info or insight into these 2025 rules?