Yeah, I've been worrying about that for over a month now and making money every week. Also, these are covered calls and I'm ready to sell as that price as I want to start doing puts as well but need some cash
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Is there any FSD coverage on mainstream media? Why isn't this Headlines everywhere?
People are numb to tech I think. Crazy how folks in Beta sound disappointed as if expecting perfection.
People are numb to tech I think. Crazy how folks in Beta sound disappointed as if expecting perfection.
engle
Member
I suggest you factor in a lot of subscriptions and "Tesla App Store" revenue into your spreadsheet. Once #model2 and other lower cost Tesla EV's are ubiquitious and Level 5 is achieved this will unlock a pandora's box of Tesla App Store revenues. Elon is already preparing for going in that direction with all the games, etc. he's added so far. I think Tesla will be to the EV market as Apple is to the cell phone market long term. Sure, there will be lots of competition with lower margins than Tesla because they cannot vertically integrate and do not have the Silicon Valley Software Engineering expertise. They will be running off of some kind of "Auto Android" and continuing to "partner" because they are individually incompetent.
I spoke with Tesla's IR head briefly at the most recent "normal" shareholder's meeting. (Martin V.) I was suggesting Tesla integrate Amazon Alexa and negotiate a cut from Jeff. Martin said, "Elon would never do that." He also said, "There is so much low-hanging fruit to pick to innovate because EV technology is so new." That indicates we will continue to see a flood of useful innovations from Tesla. From the other lame ICE vendors - not so much. Now their seats may be fancier, they may have "crab mode", but at the end of the day these vehicles will be out-performed and out-valued by Tesla's in all market segments at every turn.
Personal note:
Sunday I spoke with a long-time 70+ wealthy Realtor(R) neighbor who lost her 2nd husband earlier this year. She told me:
"Gene ordered a CyberTruck before he passed. Now what am I going to do with that! Can you see me driving one of those? I highlighted FSD, the safety features and smoke filtration system. Told her if she goes through with the purchase I will (post-Covid) teach her how to operate it. She said it would be fun for the neighbors to see us following each other down the hill, like a small military convoy. I said "Sure! I can't wait!!" She's a community influencer on our HOA Board for many years (275 homes here). If she gets one, some of her friends and neighbors will, too. Tesla's are viral. I wonder if this will always be the case?
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Mo City
Active Member
When the first collision happens, mainstream press will give plenty of coverage.
I promise.
FSD for $100k still provides a good return for the owner assuming 100k miles driven per year at a profit of $.32 per mile. There would be many people and companies waiting in line to purchase FSD for $100k.
By Elon's words, each car would have a net present value of $100k. Where do you think that $100k valuation comes from? It's from a discounted cash flow analysis, meaning that Tesla will make $100k per vehicle. Either that $100k is charged up-front or that $100k comes from a discounted future cash flow calculation (Maybe through the Tesla Network or a combination of FSD fee + Tesla Network), so 20 mill X $10,000 would still be the correct calculation regardless of whether Tesla charges $100k for FSD or not.
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Media is waiting for the first accident to give plenty of coverage. In fact Russ Michell of LA Times has already written a hit piece, and is just waiting to fill in some specifics about the accident.
Mo City
Active Member
I'll repeat this again for effect: Nobody will pay $100K for FSD software per vehicle. Not now, not ever. Elon never said this would happen.
Tesla is beginning a production ramp that is going to take everyone's breath away. If FSD graduates from beta and becomes a driverless product, there will instantly be tens of millions of FSD Teslas on the road well before annual production reaches 20M. The more autonomous vehicles become commonplace, the less autonomy as a product will cost. Your $100K is a pipe dream.
Elon said one day everybody will have autonomy and Tesla's main advantage will become production. In other words, autonomy won't even be a distinguishing factor for Tesla.
Do you get it now?
The calculation is the same regardless of whether FSD is $100k or not. Each car generates $100k in net present value for Tesla. Share prices are based on expected future earnings, so it makes no difference to the valuation of the company if that $100k is upfront or if that figure was derived from a discounted cash flow analysis. The NPV in both cases is $100k. Assuming Elon's $100k NPV estimation is correct, analysts will view each car sale as $100k in revenue.
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engle
Member
Halloween is coming! I'm in a "Red Warning" zone for fires again. Winds may reach 75 MPH at 1,000 ft. elevation. My Mom wonders why we don't just leave California? I explained that so many acres have burned that it will take many years for the forests to regrow putting us in danger of more bad fires. I do wonder what the % of forests burned in last 5 years is? We also have portable air purifiers through the house now and they work great.
PG&E has this crap RIGHT NOW which is awesome for $TSLA:
I have AC power only because our community was built in 1995 so power lines are buried.
Still, before I "Escape to Taiwan" next weekend (if 3 reward business class seats are released else later), I am ordering a Tesla Energy retrofit solar system with 3 Powerwalls (maybe less of those because I sense new versions will come out next year hopefully with the new Tesla batteries). I don't care if frac-ing PG&E allows it to be "turned-on" before the end of Q4 or not I'm paying for it in full to get my tax credit in 2020!
I will also be a "good citizen" and build 2 ADU's (Accessory Dwelling Units) on my land in 2021 to help mitigate Calfornia's housing shortage/crisis. That will give us 3 rental cash flows when we are not here. I do not plan to live in Calfornia more than 1/2 a year anymore starting with 2021. CA: September 1983 to November 2020 that's enough for me!
Yes, these are definitely all "First World Problems" and I should just shut up and pay my taxes.
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Information imbalance means opportunities, I am always grateful to contributors here, also those MSM manipulators.
Elon always said the moment FSD(L5 not beta) is turned on, it would be the single biggest asset appreciation event in history. This covers cars with FSD, also implies TSLA.
People don’t believe him, just same as when he said his car can drive him to work with almost no intervention, or when he said he can build reusable rocket.
engle
Member
Ameliorate
Member
The value of FSD does feel more suited to business/income than personal use.
Is it worthwhile for an individual to purchase FSD if the cost is 100k? Depends how you plan to use it.
Best use case - limited personal use or fully on Tesla network as passive income generation. I'm not going to get into the numbers but should give you much better returns than the S&P.
Second best - replaces multiple vehicles in household as one car can now service two or three people. Subtract cost of 2nd car -35k and insurance, probably not worth it if only replacing one vehicle.
Worst - Single person use, no need to find parking spots, car can pick you up whenever/wherever, car can transport you while working or sleeping. 100K for that type of convenience is for a very small percentile. Mind you if you work 2h per day while driving at say $40/h for 261 days = 20k per year, paid for in 5 years.
The 100k proposition fits in easily for business use. First it will be fleets of Tesla robo-taxies. Eventually it will include licensing out the sensor suite and software. This allows for the concept of TAAS, where the starbucks van picks you up for free and takes you to work on the condition that you buy a $5 coffee which you were going to anyways. The drive is free because operational costs are next to nothing, the starbucks van transports let's say 6 people every hour for 12 hours a day I think that's super conservative. That's 72 transactions, averaging $5 each = $360.00
Material costs for coffee is what 30c each? so $22. Electricity will be <30 for driving 12h (sure beats paying an employee $150 or so). So very very roughly $310/day = $113,150/year, after the first year FSD is paid off. Many many opportunities like this. This is almost certainly the future, transportation will be free and more convenient - however I feel this will take quite a while before it comes to fruition. I could potentially see 10M+ FSD sales in 2030 if this was inclusive to many brands of vehicles not just Tesla's.
Best case use may be for driving semi's 24/7.
Just some thoughts.
Agree that just because the value is questionable for personal use only does not diminish the potential value of the software running 12-24 hours per day, where it can easily exceed 100k multiple times over the life of the vehicle.
It saddens me a little that the fastest way to reduce emissions would be to produce Tesla's as fleet vehicles to displace the most ICE off the road. Perhaps Tesla will use 10-20% of their production as robo taxies in the future (Model 2, Bus? etc)
Is it worthwhile for an individual to purchase FSD if the cost is 100k? Depends how you plan to use it.
Best use case - limited personal use or fully on Tesla network as passive income generation. I'm not going to get into the numbers but should give you much better returns than the S&P.
Second best - replaces multiple vehicles in household as one car can now service two or three people. Subtract cost of 2nd car -35k and insurance, probably not worth it if only replacing one vehicle.
Worst - Single person use, no need to find parking spots, car can pick you up whenever/wherever, car can transport you while working or sleeping. 100K for that type of convenience is for a very small percentile. Mind you if you work 2h per day while driving at say $40/h for 261 days = 20k per year, paid for in 5 years.
The 100k proposition fits in easily for business use. First it will be fleets of Tesla robo-taxies. Eventually it will include licensing out the sensor suite and software. This allows for the concept of TAAS, where the starbucks van picks you up for free and takes you to work on the condition that you buy a $5 coffee which you were going to anyways. The drive is free because operational costs are next to nothing, the starbucks van transports let's say 6 people every hour for 12 hours a day I think that's super conservative. That's 72 transactions, averaging $5 each = $360.00
Material costs for coffee is what 30c each? so $22. Electricity will be <30 for driving 12h (sure beats paying an employee $150 or so). So very very roughly $310/day = $113,150/year, after the first year FSD is paid off. Many many opportunities like this. This is almost certainly the future, transportation will be free and more convenient - however I feel this will take quite a while before it comes to fruition. I could potentially see 10M+ FSD sales in 2030 if this was inclusive to many brands of vehicles not just Tesla's.
Best case use may be for driving semi's 24/7.
Just some thoughts.
Agree that just because the value is questionable for personal use only does not diminish the potential value of the software running 12-24 hours per day, where it can easily exceed 100k multiple times over the life of the vehicle.
It saddens me a little that the fastest way to reduce emissions would be to produce Tesla's as fleet vehicles to displace the most ICE off the road. Perhaps Tesla will use 10-20% of their production as robo taxies in the future (Model 2, Bus? etc)
Public relations. Journos have been complaining about it endlessly. They like to have most of their puff pieces written by PR teams. And it legitimizes their hit pieces (in their minds) when they get written responses from a company PR person.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
And btw, there is a zero missing from the numbers on the Y-axis on his line chart, he confirmed that in the comments:
That’s his most optimistic case, $40K share price by 2030, almost 100x from today!
I’d be very happy with his most conservative case: $8,000 by 2030
Shorter term, I believe his prediction of 4x revenue growth by 2022, and that logically the stock should reach $1600 that year. There will only be record quarters from now on, but seeing the muted reaction to a record Q3 record, it is not a given that the stock price follows the revenue growth.
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ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
Gee, I wonder for how many miles each of those robotaxis can find customers and make money driving after say five years when there is 100 million robotaxis.
Who knows? Per Elon Musk, he said the NPV for each car will be $100k after autonomy. Either that $100k is charged upfront or it's calculated via discounted cash flow projections from FSD price + Tesla Network fees. Regardless of whichever method it is, it is the same as thinking each car is sold for $100k when analysts try to predict stock prices.
It could be the case that FSD may be priced much higher than $100k with most cars not having FSD to reach the $100k/car NPV.
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