Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Twooz]

Well TSLA usually trades at a multiple of the NASDAQ. So it’s just strange that it can’t even keep up this morning. There was a lot of selling pressure yesterday. Just pointing out that it may continue that’s all.

Agreed. Definitely gonna be a red one today.

 

[Buckminster]

Musk is a once-in-a-generation inventor-businessman. There’s no limit to how he can deploy capital to make multiple fortunes. To maximize the value of TSLA long term he should:

1) raise $50 billion today at this very attractive SP

2) pick 5 or 6 of the largest industries ripe for disruption

3) hire the best managers to run each division of the Tesla conglomerate, including the transport division and energy division

4) become Chairman of the Board and Chief Science Officer of the conglomerate

Anyone here doubt that the profits Musk would achieve in the totally new bets he could fund would be worth more than the 10% dilution?

Tempting but sure fire way of losing Tesla's precious culture. If we are to become share owning billionaires (inflation is a bitch!) in 30 years then you can forget about it if the culture has been lost. Impossible to get back. Tesla will need a million mini-me Elons running around forming 2 pizza start-ups that disrupt an industry inside a year.

 

[vikings123]

BoA's John Murphy reiterates neutral rating but raises price target to 550(from 350).

 

[Singuy]

Well TSLA usually trades at a multiple of the NASDAQ. So it’s just strange that it can’t even keep up this morning. There was a lot of selling pressure yesterday. Just pointing out that it may continue that’s all.

I agree. Tsla have actually gone down a little bit since ah last night even though qqq jumped 1.2% this morning. This stock is so momentum based it's not even funny.

 

[Dancing Lemur]

From WSJ newswire — this is an important indicator of the more conservative side of the financial system’s sentiment toward Tesla in the medium term.


Tesla's Share-Sale Plans Boost Bonds
9/2/20, 8:50 AM
The latest beneficiaries of Tesla's surging shares: bondholders.

Prices for Tesla Inc.'s traditional bond due in 2025 reached a record 104.36 cents on the dollar Tuesday, according to MarketAxess, after the electric-car maker said it would sell up to $5 billion in stock, bolstering its balance sheet after a 5-for-1 stock split Monday.

That marks a rebound from lows around 79 cents during the worst of the pandemic's market turmoil and the latest big swing in the company's bond prices. Since snapping up the company's first conventional bond offering in 2017, investors have questioned where Tesla would get the money to repay debt as it burned cash and struggled to turn a profit. In 2018, the bonds were near 85 cents on the dollar following a ratings downgrade and stock price declines.

[it continues, but that’s the lede]

 

[Tslynk67]

To give a data point around my case.

My Bank BNP Paribas today September 2nd does still not show the correct amount of shares in my account (just 1/5th) but confirmed to me 2 years ago that my shares can't be lent to anybody.

Aha, but there you make the assumption that they actually delivered you shares when you bought them

Seriously though, I'd be really pissed if my bank had screwed-up like this...

 

[anthonyj]

$2,000 this year when FSD updates blows peoples minds. It just needs to be 90% there

 

[NicoV]

Trouble in oil paradise: Kuwait faces liquidity crisis and may not be able to pay it’s government personnel in October: Problemen in het olieparadijs

 

[Beezer_9]

 

[KMCC]

Another 420 moment!

479.25 +4.20 (0.88%)
Before hours: 9:15AM EDT

 

[Tslynk67]

Is there a no true day trader fallacy?
Even if you hold some positions, you can still be a day trader.
What’s the Pattern Day Trading Rule? And How to Avoid Breaking It - Ticker Tape


I got hit due to memorial day causing Friday to only be 4 trading days from Friday.

Plus, I'm guess @Lycanthrope's day trade portion's returns have been overall positive, which is the point of the answer.

You mean like HODL account is around 12x up since main inception in February 2016, including adding over the years around 40% more shares.

Trading account, on the other hand, is 320x up since this time last year. Most of this enormous wealth increase has come from buying LEAPS during dips. My only regret is ever selling ANY of them, always sold too early, otherwise it would be 2000x higher (that initial $1000 would be worth roughly $2m now, but hey, I wouldn't have had all the fun of trading for the last 8 months )

Those of you who remember me netting $130k in February, from the fabled $1 Jan 2021 calls, may also remember my claim that I would turn this into $1m, which is essentially what I've done now anyway, by the scenic route

 

[Tslynk67]

From all-in LEAPs back to all-in Stocks

I moved to all LEAPs in July, the returns overall are good.
I have more shares than when I started in July.

I am trying to figure out the plan to unwind this, get back to shares.

Two aspects that I thought should be considered while I am on this LEAPs path and later complete the unwinding are

1. Timing of the transition, not all-at-a-time, but staggered. What are reasonable transition points. Example, convert 10% when SP reaches certain price.
2. Tax considerations during the LEAPs journey and the transition timings.

In short, can you guys share your thoughts on '1' and '2'?

IF YOU ARE GENEROUS OR CURIOUS ENOUGH to read further...
Tax considerations: Miscalculations, apparently:
Return calculation:

• My statement on me having more shares now than when I started isn't as appealing after I learnt that even for LTCG, the tax can be > 35% considering state taxes.

LTCG? Maybe not:

• In taxable account I always had LEAPs at least an year out, 13-15 months out.
• I have been switching my LEAPs, moving to ATM and 25% OTM as the SP kept moving up.
• "Switching": I cash out the option by selling a vertical spread, sell the option right at the next strike.
• The tax event triggers when the option is closed. Since my LEAPs are at least an year out, I thought I would be paying only LTCG.
• Tax straddle rules might mean my calculation on the 1 year holding of the long call might be inaccurate. I need to read more on this. I didn't buy pairs/spreads but sold the short call later. For options like I had the categorization would be long-term if the long call tax event is triggered 1 year after I sold the short call?
  
• I plan to very soon consult a tax pro. That said, I appreciate any inputs.

Timing (Transition points)

• One plan I thought about was to convert to shares once I hit a target count of shares. I might have to calculate taxes, account for this money and use the remaining to calculate if that remaining gets me to the target share count.
• The other plan is to convert to shares at certain points like when current SP being some x% (say 6%, no strong reasoning for this number) below ATH seen so far during regular trading hours.
• One other approach is to go by SP, x% converted at SP 500, so on.

If the SP goes to 600-700, there's a good chance (depending on tax part), my portfolio value would reach a point where I will have the freedom to spend time in my life on something I am passionate about, doing things that will have positive impact on those who are less fortunate.

Thoughts?

@Lycanthrope @StealthP3D @FrankSG Tagging you as I found some wisdom in your posts, related to the topic of this post of mine.

Hi - I can't comment on the tax matters as I'm in Belgium...

As regards offloading the LEAPS, I've not done much of that either, and when I have I've mostly regretted selling as they went up and up and up afterwards. But my LEAPS are always bought in dips, or if not dips, then far enough in the past as to have DITM (except for the Jun 22 $3500's)

Now I've a bit more experience, my personal strategy is to either leave them to exercise (in 2022) or sell when the IV is very high/SP is at a local peak, in any case, don't sell them on a downward trend, as long as they're not aspiring too soon, hold them until a big SP upswing/IV increase.

But given that I'll need to pay taxes when I realise these LEAPS, I'm really tending towards exercising on expiry, unless something unforeseen happens where I need the money. Note that I cannot exercise these early, no possibility with my broker.

On the other hand, I fancy the stock will have split once or twice more before June 2022, so would be a substantial amount of money if I just leave them alone...

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Nasdaq up 0.91%, TSLA up 0.84% right now. Really not a significant difference to say anything one way or another, but I don't see how being up almost 1% right now signals "another rough day"?

No comment

 

[BornToFly]

I remember a little while ago Kathie Wood saying that Tesla would need to raise $10 Billion. (I thought she was crazy). Since she said that, they have now raised or announced around $7 Billion. That woman is an oracle....

 

[Tslynk67]

So, I've $12600 to blow on $TSLA, I can get 26 now in pre-market for $480 each, or wait until MMD and hope to get 27 at $464... (I know, should be $465, but there's a 1% fee/tax on the purchase...)

I'm gonna wait and tough it out - maybe people are spooked with the Ballie Gifford filing...

Yah, 27x $TSLA bought @ $464 - not the bottom, but good enough for me, thank you!

 

[BornToFly]

I guess the naked short sellers are back....

 

[MABMAB]

 

[Unpilot]

I'm a buyer...again

 

[Todd Burch]

No comment

Feel free to gloat, but it looks like the typical bulls**t manufactured MMD we see just about every day. Typical icicle straight down, not reflected in the macros.

 

[neezer]

Trouble in oil paradise: Kuwait faces liquidity crisis and may not be able to pay it’s government personnel in October: Problemen in het olieparadijs

I've inquired about this (lived there, have family there, have strong ties there) and this is mostly propaganda, turns out, against the govt by this very right-wing group.