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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Clockwise from top-left:
  1. Motor Workshop - shared output for Models 3+Y
  2. Battery Workshop - shared output for Models 3+Y
  3. Gigapress / Stamping - (near end of Phase 1) possible location for Gigapress*
  4. Gigapress / AL Casting - (Phase 2 standalone bldg) 2nd possible location for Gigapress*
  5. Body Shop - Model Y (note smaller bldg size made possible due to AL casting of underbody)
  6. Additional Stamping - Model Y (could be anything, but have to make a guess here!)
  7. Paint Shop - Model Y (larger shop for 2x volume vs Model 3 / Phase 1 paintshop)
  8. Air Handling / Paint shop (27 large roof-mounted air handling units for large throughput)
  9. Offices / Engineering (no windows in this building)
While I tend to agree with a lot of your suggestions, there are a couple that don't quite add up for me. I'm a Mechanical Engineer that designs building services, and while I don't do factories, much of the plant and equipment used is similar.

No.6 I expect will be a very heavily serviced building, possibly even up to cleanroom requirements. I get this from the large number of footings and penetrations on the roof that appear to be in preparation for a large number of air handling units (RHS and along the centre). This is similar to the finished power train building but looks to be more intense. It would also make sense to locate such a heavily serviced building next to the central energy plant behind it. What could require such heavy servicing requirements? My guess would be cell manufacture or similar like on the earlier Giga4 Berlin plans that showed a Cell building. (Although it is a bit remote from the battery pack building ont he other side).

Giga3 Cell Bldg.jpg


No.8 Isn't air handling and wouldn't be specifically for the paint shop. The units on the roof of this building are cooling towers, used for heat rejection from chillers in that building and for rejection of heat from remote equipment. Pipework from this central energy plant building carry chilled water for air conditioning, condenser water for remote heat rejection/cooling and heating hot water. There could also be some compressed air and possibly standby power generators in this building. Air handling is generally located adjacent to the area served due to the size of ductwork and inefficency of reticulating distance compared with pipework.

The other thing to consider is that much of the floor area of these buildings is two or three stories while the Model 3 plant was mostly single storey. This allows plenty of extra space for other activities such as plastics molding, seat manufacture, logistics, offices etc. One of the earlier plans for Giga 4 showed a lot of these activities occuring on the second floor above the main assembly areas.
 
I used to obsess about ruining my average cost of which I was proud, then I realised this is a mistaken way of thinking. Over the last month or so I've been hoovering up 5's and 10's when the price dipped even though it smashed my average price. My thinking is now as follows: my medium term target from here is $4000, so every 10 shares I pick up should return an additional $25,000 from current prices. Forget average price, it's history.
That's exactly where I'm at. I don't care anymore if I can boast about a 10x when I can make thousands more with each additional share I own. I also buy the dips. These days it doesn't make a huge difference but then, again, every additional share I can buy because of those savings equates to thousands of dollars in the end.
 
We get it you'd like us to sell

If one takes a look at the chart over the last year, one DOES need to explain why they're selling. Not to anybody else, but certainly to themself. Selling now is like catching a falling knife, but reversed
Think of it as selling a very sharp knife that everyone wants and you are holding it by the blade.
If you offer it they will rip it from your hand. Most don't sell twice.
 
see how easy it is to flush out the shills and their alts in here? funnest part is watching posts evolve into FUD articles by the usual suspects the following week.

Just to evaluate your theory here, which I'll call the Shill Underpants Gnomes theory:

Step 1: Be a member for over 3 years, with almost 10,000 posts, roughly 10:1 positive like/love/informative reactions to those posts vs disagrees, and own both a tesla car and tesla stock.... and post objective facts about the cars current hardware and its behavior in bad weather confirmed by many other owners in many threads going back years. And even mentions he'd be 100% satisfied to let Tesla keep his FSD money if they ONLY ever deliver Level 3 on highways only (which he explicitly thinks the HW is capable of).

Step 2: ....

Step 3: PROFIT!



Hint: Not everyone who posts legitimate concerns about the vehicle is a "shill"- sometimes they're owners who love their cars but are honest about their limitations.
 
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You failed to mention the biggest positive aspect of Nikola's factory construction. The low environmental impact!
I think Trevor is just following Elon's logic. Elon has stated that the best part is no part: get a car made with the fewest possible parts. Well Trevor is showing that he can do this too; the best factory is no factory! :cool:
 
MrMiserable; A Brit, is doing an awesome job of tracking shipping to Europe.
He had a career in shipping and knows his stuff!

2020 Shipping Movements

It would appear that Pier 80 is going to have a very busy August with ships loading almost continually.
Once the RCC ASIA has departed the GLOVIS STELLA which is waiting anchored in the Bay will move alongside.
Then we can expect the GLOVIS SIGMA.
It is confirmed that GLOVIS CLIPPER will make an appearance, and it would fit in after the GLOVIS SIGMA
The big news is that apparently the DONINGTON is going to be the final ship of Q3 - a big one!
I can only assume the DONINGTON is coming to Europe and by my fag packet calculations she will arrive in Zeebrugge around 21 Sep.
So it's a return to the crazy Tesla quarter end delivery frenzy!
 
So it's a return to the crazy Tesla quarter end delivery frenzy!


One of the many reasons to look forward to GigaBerlin actually producing 3s and Ys eventually will be the end to the FUD folks cherry picking a specific month Freemont is delivering mostly to one geo going "OMG! DEMAND FAILURE! THEY DID NOT SELL HARDLY ANY CARS IN THE OTHER GEO THIS MONTH"

(plus the slew of logistical/cost benefits, as well as customer sat improvements, that'd come out of exiting this cycle of rushing cars all around the world from one factory for everywhere that isn't china)
 
One of the many reasons to look forward to GigaBerlin actually producing 3s and Ys eventually will be the end to the FUD folks cherry picking a specific month Freemont is delivering mostly to one geo going "OMG! DEMAND FAILURE! THEY DID NOT SELL HARDLY ANY CARS IN THE OTHER GEO THIS MONTH"
One can only hope that that would be the end of Anton’s Seeking Alpha career. He will then have to focus on the very low rate of Tesla deliveries in Europe between 10pm and 6am every day.
 
While I tend to agree with a lot of your suggestions, there are a couple that don't quite add up for me. I'm a Mechanical Engineer that designs building services, and while I don't do factories, much of the plant and equipment used is similar.

No.6 I expect will be a very heavily serviced building, possibly even up to cleanroom requirements. I get this from the large number of footings and penetrations on the roof that appear to be in preparation for a large number of air handling units (RHS and along the centre). This is similar to the finished power train building but looks to be more intense. It would also make sense to locate such a heavily serviced building next to the central energy plant behind it. What could require such heavy servicing requirements? My guess would be cell manufacture or similar like on the earlier Giga4 Berlin plans that showed a Cell building. (Although it is a bit remote from the battery pack building ont he other side).

View attachment 573852

No.8 Isn't air handling and wouldn't be specifically for the paint shop. The units on the roof of this building are cooling towers, used for heat rejection from chillers in that building and for rejection of heat from remote equipment. Pipework from this central energy plant building carry chilled water for air conditioning, condenser water for remote heat rejection/cooling and heating hot water. There could also be some compressed air and possibly standby power generators in this building. Air handling is generally located adjacent to the area served due to the size of ductwork and inefficency of reticulating distance compared with pipework.

The other thing to consider is that much of the floor area of these buildings is two or three stories while the Model 3 plant was mostly single storey. This allows plenty of extra space for other activities such as plastics molding, seat manufacture, logistics, offices etc. One of the earlier plans for Giga 4 showed a lot of these activities occuring on the second floor above the main assembly areas.
Wow! Who would have thought they build out TeraTexas so quickly?
 
  • Funny
Reactions: CarlS and dc_h
Part of the compelling story behind Tesla and their manufacturing advantage is that they keep expanding deeper into the supply chain, standardizing while incrementally and continuously improving, and replicating capabilities globally. All the right ingredients for long term growth and production efficiency. Difficult for new EV companies to match (money, time, ability to execute) and difficult for legacy ICE to achieve because they are stuck in an old mindset and will fade away before actually being able to transition.
 
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MrMiserable; A Brit, is doing an awesome job of tracking shipping to Europe.
He had a career in shipping and knows his stuff!

2020 Shipping Movements

It would appear that Pier 80 is going to have a very busy August with ships loading almost continually.
Once the RCC ASIA has departed the GLOVIS STELLA which is waiting anchored in the Bay will move alongside.
Then we can expect the GLOVIS SIGMA.
It is confirmed that GLOVIS CLIPPER will make an appearance, and it would fit in after the GLOVIS SIGMA
The big news is that apparently the DONINGTON is going to be the final ship of Q3 - a big one!
I can only assume the DONINGTON is coming to Europe and by my fag packet calculations she will arrive in Zeebrugge around 21 Sep.
So it's a return to the crazy Tesla quarter end delivery frenzy!

Anecdotally, in recent weeks I've seen a steady stream of Tesla-laden trucks headed north on 101. That'd be consistent with SF deliveries, but Pier 80 seems more likely.

Shanghai has already reduced the size of the wave, hasn't it? Berlin will do more, but there are still countries outside China and Europe: Australia, South Korea, etc. So I expect the waves will get smaller, but still remain part of Tesla's logistics.
 
Upcoming Catalysts:

While much has been written regarding S&P 500 inclusion, it obviously being conducted outside the paragons of honesty and transparency. Beyond any influence of the vested principals.

Since the TMC investment threads have become known for information based in observation and reasoned evidence, it makes great sense to focus on matters that cannot be manipulated by those cloaked in the corruption of secrecy.

Going forward, I will focus on the upcoming battery day event, third quarter production and delivery, third quarter profitability, Gigafactory development, and autonomous driving as it relates valuation and share price.

Long story short, facts and reasoned based observation are damn near impossible to overcome. In the end, Tesla fires, weren’t. Facts have always been on our side.
 
Well, what is relevant to this thread, I believe, is whether Tesla will have to do another hardware retrofit - this one vastly more expensive - to vehicles in which FSD has been purchased.

Many jurisdictions will insist on a certain level of redundancy in any autonomous driving vehicle they approve. Tesla is aware of this (they stated on Autonomy Day that they have two identical FSD chips in each vehicle for precisely that reason, also see FSD Chip - Tesla - WikiChip), yet I wonder if the entire system is fully redundant.

That article I linked above says: "Additionally, half of the cameras sit on one power supply and the other half sit on the second power supply (note that the video input itself is received by both chips). The redundancy is designed to ensure that in the case of a component such as a camera stream or power supply or some other IC on the board going bad, the full system can continue to operate normally."

But, can the car fully function autonomously if half the cameras fail (or are obscured)? I haven't compared the video outputs myself, but, for instance, are the cameras set up such that the FOVs (Field of Vision) overlap completely - that half the cameras can fail due to power supply failure, and the other cameras fill in completely, with the software pre-programmed / learned to handle that as well?

It’s relevant. That’s the ever recurring complaint when discussions get moved to a seperate thread. But almost everything discussed here is relevant to this thread. That doesn’t mean it all belongs here. There’s a rendency to go overboard with technical details like in this case interchanges in Texas and Oklahoma and papers about ‘image restoration via de-raining’, where you lose most people. What’s the problem with discussing that in a separate thread? Those who find the subject important enough can continue there. If they don’t want to, then apparantly it isn’t important or relevant enough.