Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mo City]

‘Experts believe that if the virus is seasonal we will see a 2nd wave in the fall. If it is not seasonal, we might be doomed to bouts of social distancing interspersed with bouts of relaxing guidelines. And to make it tough on supply chains, different parts of the world will be going through these phases at different times. In either case, we are likely in for a very bumpy road in 2020.

I would personally be shocked if the economy fully recovers in H2 2020. As @Singuy points out, the ripple effects even spread to doctors and many other unexpected places.

Best case is that it is very seasonal and some anti-viral drug shows incredible promise.

Nobody believes the economy will fully recover in 2020. Maybe some did 4 weeks ago but that notion is completely dead now. Some industries will take years. Obviously it depends how far down the bottom is and how long it takes to get there.

Per Anthony Fauci, we will be much better prepared for a 2nd wave in the fall. It should be a concern but getting past this 1st trough is 95% of it IMO. My main concern is our societal discipline maintaining distancing will collapse prematurely. This is the worst case.

 

[dha]

Yes, because you didn’t quote the original comment and you didn’t specify your intent other than to say — not to be a —

Not sure what you're looking at but I absolutely did: Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

 

[Singuy]

Considering the Fremont factory likely won't be producing cars for a month, and internet search interest in Tesla has gone down 50% (and further in the last week), Q2 profitability looks quite unlikely.

TSLA shares appreciate massively when quarterly profits happen.

Terrible cash burn has been priced in, if you have not noticed TSLA is down almost as much as travel stocks. What is not priced in is better than expected cash burn which is what q1 is providing. It also gives a good insight to overall demand and Tesla's ability to deliver cars since they were expected to miss any type of expectations by majority of shareholders.

 

[Krugerrand]

So just because someone doesn't agree with my view on a topic that I didnt originally bring up, I'm clueless on the topic . Yeah I think I'm done here. Have fun guys on the forum

So, Star Fox is down?

Stay safe and healthy!

 

[Krugerrand]

Not sure what you're looking at but I absolutely did: Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

Ok, I stand corrected on the quoted comment. I apologize.

However, you did state the incorrect information.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Lol, 'Tesla should advertise', but Ford and GM should stop?... Crazy upside down world, wot?

P.S. No, I DO NOT think Tesla should advertise.

CH33RS!

 

[gerebgraus]

‘Experts believe that if the virus is seasonal we will see a 2nd wave in the fall. If it is not seasonal, we might be doomed to bouts of social distancing interspersed with bouts of relaxing guidelines. And to make it tough on supply chains, different parts of the world will be going through these phases at different times. In either case, we are likely in for a very bumpy road in 2020.

I would personally be shocked if the economy fully recovers in H2 2020. As @Singuy points out, the ripple effects even spread to doctors and many other unexpected places.

Best case is that it is very seasonal and some anti-viral drug shows incredible promise.

Actually the best case is that we reach herd immunity, and this virus pandemic will be over for good by late April or early May. Nonetheless, this will not be the last pandemic and that we learn how to deal with it effectively might be a plus. It is a good exercise thankfully with a not particularly lethal pandemic. There were idiotic, corrupt, inappropriate under and overreaction everywhere in the world. Of course, the USA is 2nd. worse after Turkmenistan.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So to recap.....

Tuesday we're sitting at $538 with market uncertainty about production & deliveries.

Thursday we have a massive beat in P/D, Deutschebank ups 1Q outlook from -$1.25 to +$.05......and Friday we're at $479.

Moderate macro headwinds yes, but come on man! What kind of world we living in when a brotha can't even cash some $500 calls on a day like this?

 

[mongo]

Moderate macro headwinds yes, but come on man! What kind of world we living in when a brotha can't even cash some $500 calls on a day like this?

Today's opportunity for profitable 500 calls was fleeting.

Big dead zone in the put vs call open interest heading into close...

 

[juanmedina]

what a day ... bought 10 today at 497 thinking that it was going to bounce. I still have some cash left..... Maybe I just wait for high 300's again anything is possible with this stock

 

[Zero CO2]

If i am just a day trader, would now be a good time to sell while I'm up +30? Then, buy back this afternoon. I know, I know, don't time the market. But this is my play money and my longs are in another account. Help!

Your not sure if your a day trader ?
I am not sure about our Avatar

 

[Mo City]

what a day ... bought 10 today at 497 thinking that it was going to bounce. I still have some cash left..... Maybe I just wait for high 300's again anything is possible with this stock

Waiting for high 300s is what I'm doing with remaining liquidity.

Honestly, I'm not convinced the 350 we saw in mid-March is necessarily the bottom. Remember, this is TSLA we are talking about. (Realistically though, after the Q1 numbers, 350 again is unlikely).

I believe 400 is quite possible prior to April 22 (and perhaps after).

 

[CyberDutchie]

what a day ... bought 10 today at 497 thinking that it was going to bounce. I still have some cash left..... Maybe I just wait for high 300's again anything is possible with this stock

I hear you, I thought I was smart yesterday buying 50 shares in the aftermarket at 518 and 50 more at 529. Oh well...

 

[Artful Dodger]

what a day ... bought 10 today at 497 thinking that it was going to bounce. I still have some cash left..... Maybe I just wait for high 300's again anything is possible with this stock

Don't despair. MMs have pulled this trick before. After 2018Q3 (which was supposed to be a huge consensus loss), Tesla delivered a big beat with the P&D Report. Then to celebrate, next day the SP slumped...
It was only the following week (after the big buoys had repositioned themselves) that the SP climbed to reflect properly the information in the P&D.

Not saying this will happen, though. MMs and shortzes alike are making short-term book on this manipulation, and they have the trading power (and the slanted rulez) to have their way.

No matter. Tesla is fine, and will be fine. EVs are inevitable, and soon so will be renewable energy. The SP will sort itself out eventually, despite all the games being played. Jus' buy the dips, and...

HODL (as always).

Cheers!

 

[transpondster]

Actually the best case is that we reach herd immunity, and this virus pandemic will be over for good by late April or early May.

With such thinking I'll rephrase one anecdote: Optimistic case pandemic will be over in one month by herd immunity, realistic case aliens will flew in and fix it

 

[bruce4000]

Any more word on battery day? Was expecting it to be before q1 earnings call to provide positive news like AI day. With prospect for bad q2, maybe waiting a qtr?

 

[LJS22]

I’m thinking we see a late day run back to 490-500. TSLA is not a name you would mind holding for a weekend, month, year, or years.

 

[StealthP3D]

Lol, 'Tesla should advertise', but Ford and GM should stop?... Crazy upside down world, wot?

P.S. No, I DO NOT think Tesla should advertise.

CH33RS!

I love videos like this! I've always lamented the "herd behavior" of humans and how easy they are to fool. Advertising always perplexed me because it made me less likely to buy a product. I was only around 14 years old when I heard how incredibly expensive a one-minute ad on national TV was. I immediately understood that I was the one paying for it when I purchased products with large advertising budgets. No one had to tell me this, it was self-evident. This made me search out excellent products that didn't need advertising. And, yes, I'm a Costco member. Their stores have a lot of products that don't advertise, especially Costo brands like Kirkland. And Safeway is no longer the disgusting store it was in the 1980's. Now they have really excellent store brands (unadvertised) that knock the socks off the big established brands in terms of quality. BECAUSE THEY DON'T WASTE THEIR MONEY ON ADVERTISING! They give it back to the consumer.

I think it's hilarious that purchasers of gas cars pay over $1000 extra for all that advertising (and probably and additional $200/car for advertising on the local level). Hey, I've been there too! But only until I had a reasonable choice. I hope Tesla continues to grow market share without spending big bucks on advertising so I can keep laughing at all the sheeple who continue to buy inferior, smelly, over-priced gas vehicles when there are now better options that offer so much better value over the life of the vehicle.

 

[Tachyon]

Oh man!
Looks like we will end up in the red after such a phenomenal P&D report.
Though it sucks for a day, this is just a fleeting moment in the long term outlook.
Something to reminisce and tell your grand kids in future

 

[ThortsMD]

From an earlier post above: "Actually the best case is that we reach herd immunity, and this virus pandemic will be over for good by late April or early May."

There appears to be a lot of misunderstanding of herd immunity on this board. For CV, herd immunity won't even begin until about 70% of a population has had it. We don't want to be in a position that 70+% of Americans have had it. In the short and medium term time frames (ie, until a treatment or vaccine is available, probably not until this time next year), the only way to prevent spread is distancing and business closures. If a second wave occurs next fall and winter, it could be much worse than now. The point is, I urge caution expecting things will get better for a business revival in the near term, and again over the winter. Fremont and Sparks may be closed off and on for extended periods over the next year. Trade with care. Long and strong here. The long term narrative has not changed. Discussion of CV herd immunity below:

Here's Why Herd Immunity Won't Save Us From The COVID-19 Pandemic