Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mike Ambler]

Question/comment.

I looked at the past 20 or so posts of the great and wonderful @Papafox.

It seems that if you bought TSLA at 9:45am and sold it at 11:30am you would be in the green a large majority of the time.

Anyone else notice this?
Is there any kind of online tool I can use to verify these patterns?
Am I the last person here to notice this?
Am I wrong or is there something I’m not seeing?
Is this the kind of thing I’m supposed to keep to myself?
Can I quit my day job now? lol

Best,
Gene


PS...and what causes those early morning dips anyways?

I was thinking: buy at 10am set and forget a sell order at 1.3% (I have to pay 30% tax on each transaction, so 1% net per day on most days).

Too little cash to make it worthwhile, though

 

[wipster]

Shoulda been betta, coulda been woirse...

 

[CorneliusXX]

Hmmm...the stock price didn't even finish up 44% today. must have been those waskly fudsters and shorts. If it doesn't finish up at least 200% on Monday it will be their conniving at it again. Tesla today is worth at least $2T.

 

[dc_h]

Okay for those who thinks there will be a 3 additional months of shut down are insane. Preface, anything is possible. But a 3 months complete economic shut down will result in catastrophe and mass protest. Tesla can weather the storm, but everything around it cannot. There's not enough money in the world to keep these small businesses alive shutting them down. There's not enough money in the world to keep landlords from evicting people out onto the streets. And this is with a state that has obviously flatten the curve. Even the governor of New York understands a shut down for an extended period time is suicidal.

I wish you were definitely right. We currently are increasing new cases 10% a day, another 30,000 today and deaths and recoveries are less then 10% of new cases. Until that ratio changes, we remain weeks from peak, let alone safety. Spain is approaching this plateau and may have peaked, but they have a national policy. After NY Louisiana and Alabama and Georgia and Florida will begin really hit stride. We’ve screwed this up very badly. I’m selling covered calls most weeks, closed those yesterday morning and went long for a day. Likely to sell covered calls again next week, but cautious around earnings.
Good luck to all and stay safe, if for no other reason then to get this over with.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Hmmm...the stock price didn't even finish up 44% today. must have been those waskly fudsters and shorts. If it doesn't finish up at least 200% on Monday it will be their conniving at it again. Tesla today is worth at least $2T.

Who invited this party poopers?

 

[bruce4000]

Your posting fingerprint is too obvious, @KSilver2000. The concern troll schtick is getting old. Maybe try to use aliases that don't all end in multiples of 2000?

Uh, sorry if I tried to ask a legit question about what the next catalyst for moving the stock is. I am relatively new to this board and sorry I picked a number similar to someone else. FYI, I put $2500 down last May for a awd MY and have been dollar cost ave into Tesla stock for last 18 months.

 

[Buckminster]

I babysat at 11 years of age

Cat years or dog years?

 

[Foghat]

The air in LA is so clean and fresh right now. It is amazing how much of an impact low emissions has on immediate health of the many in such short order. Just another point of evidence, a vastly significant one, that confirms Tesla (Elon and Co.) are onto something big here. There are many, many convergences around Tesla that demonstrate its significant impact on how arguably most global economic activity will be conducted in the future.

Tesla will be here long after this storm is all said and done, and those that are able to obtain/keep their piece of the company will do well.

Not only financially well, but as a human being. We must keep this hyper loop going through thick and thin to get there. I heard someone say it's like chewing glass while walking into the abyss, but well worth the dental work after getting out.

To Elon, keep being you. Humble and on point with the mission. Protect your stake in the company and the organizational knowledge you've accumulated. We're with you all the way.

 

[mblakele]

There’s been more snippiness in this thread recently.

We’re all under unusual stress these day, whether it’s economic or social. Let’s try to write the best posts we can, and read each others’ posts as charitably as possible.

Oh, and if at all possible: hold.

 

[Buckminster]

Nobody is more bullish than me on S&P500 inclusion. Two weeks ago, I gave the following odds:

Chance of inclusion by June = ~30%?
Chance of inclusion by September = ~80%? (down from 90%)

I would now go with the following:
Q1 - 10%
Q2 - 30%

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

just two advertising related points:

1) Yup I agree 100% tesla is production constrained and does not need to advertise right now at all. Absolute agreement!

2) You cannot escape ads, anywhere on earth. You may have an ad blocker, I do too, but you would be flabbergasted how much advertising you see every day, from someone on TV in an audience wearing a hat with a nike swoosh on it, to physically billboards near your home, to product placement in TV shows and movies you watch, right down to the logos on almost everything you buy.

An advert widely regarded as the most successful of all time did not explain anything whatsoever about the product, make any claims, or as I recall even show the product. It was for british airways, and if I played the music to anyone in the UK, even decades later (now) if they were alive back then, they would remember it.
music:

Its actually pretty scary how ads really work

 

[Opus BC fan]

Before wishing you all a good weekend...
I would like to ask for a moment of silence for all those men out there who have been saying "Honey, I will get to it when I have the time"


Thank you and stay safe people.

 

[JRP3]

Its actually pretty scary how ads really work

If they worked so well my house would be full of thousands of products I didn't need or want.

 

[BornToFly]

If you look at China and S. Korea, EVERYONE is wearing a mask, not to keep from getting the virus (since regular surgical masks don't work that well for that), but to keep an asymptomatic person from spreading it to others. We can't do that here because we don't have 300 Million masks yet to give to citizens. But I don't think we are going back to work until that happens. Someone can have the virus and give it to others for up to 12 days if it takes them that long to get sick (and there lies the problem). Hopefully by the end of April the US will have enough masks that we can restart the economy with the order that nobody can be in public places without one. The stimulus package kept the Markets afloat this week. I'm expecting Macros next week to be red, and maybe the week after as well. I'm hoping to pick up more shares in the second half of the month as case numbers are leveling out. I expect V-shaped recovery once everyone has a mask and regular economic activity starts back up.

 

[Thekiwi]

I wonder why Autoline would have a guest on that knew so little about the auto industry? The two hosts had to correct Montana Skeptic multiple times on things about the industry he just had no clue on. By the end of the show his underlying hate for Tesla was coming through loud and clear and all three of the other guys could see it.

For example, when MS tried to claim that all the Fremont workers who were laid off due to Coronavirus shutdown would go out and find other jobs elsewhere, John McElroy had to correct him and by using his experience of the many layoffs in Michigan over the decades. The workers get unemployment as long as the shut-down lasts and then most of the same ones are hired back. Because they can't find comparable work at comparable wages. No one tthought to mention that it's pretty hard to find a job in the middle of a Coronavirus lockdown.

When MS tried to say Tesla was screwed because last year Tesla renegotiated higher volume/lower-cost contracts with their parts suppliers and now they couldn't meet the minimum volumes contracted, John McElroy had to correct him and said that's not how it works in the auto parts supplier business - suppliers don't sue manufacturer's acting in good faith because they would never get another supply contract again - they work it out when times are tough.

MS said a lot of things that simply weren't true but none of the other guys knew enough about Tesla to correct him. For example, at the end of the show one of the hosts got Tesla's Q1 delivery numbers hot off the presses. MS appeared befuddled by the number. At the beginning of the show, MS made the case that sales would be terrible this quarter without Coronavirus but with CV, sales would be even worse. He said if they managed to hit 85K that would be really good but still worse than their (record) Q4 sales. And he implied they couldn't even hit that. He was just throwing that out there as a result that would only be possible in an ideal situation. So, when it was announced they had beat his number he rhetorically asked how they thought the revenues would compare to Q1 2019, a quarter in which he claimed was the transition to all "high margin sales"?? As I recall, Q1 2019 was the transition to low margin sales, with the price cuts and the introduction of the standard range $35K model. But MS looked shaken up by the Q1 sales number that was revealed at the end of the show.

I found it odd that Lawrence Fossi maintained his alias, Montana Skeptic, for the show and never revealed his true identity. Every other Autoline show I've ever seen had multiple guests and they were all proud to use their real name. Very odd. I wonder what excuse he used when he told McElroy he wanted to use an alias!

I also wonder how his short position is working out, LOL!

Thanks for Taking one for the team by watching this and summarising - saving the rest of us from killing brain cells.

 

[Johnny Ma]

I think peoples experience with lead acid batteries needing replacement every 4 years or less is why they think EV batteries won’t last (even though Li Ion are better). Been stranded several times over the years in ice car due to damm lead acid batteries dying an early death. Sucks we can’t get rid of them?

For what it’s worth, YouTuber Teslafaninsight video from outside an east coast delivery center said he still saw lots of inventory especially MX. I expect MY will be cutting into MX sales.

Tesla has contacted people about AWD which implies smaller number of performance MY orders but I wouldn’t expect a large number for a CUV

Uh, sorry if I tried to ask a legit question about what the next catalyst for moving the stock is. I am relatively new to this board and sorry I picked a number similar to someone else. FYI, I put $2500 down last May for a awd MY and have been dollar cost ave into Tesla stock for last 18 months.

You your forgot to leave your posting history private (unlike @KSilver2000). And I see @ZeApelido "liked" your reply to me calling you out. What's strange is how thinly veiled your intentions are. ZeApelido sold the majority of his stock (per his own admission) and then immediately went from forum Jokester to forum Negative Nancy. Let me say it again. Thinly Veiled. Your intentions are transparent.

 

[Thekiwi]

The California and Nevada state orders explicitly say that auto manufacturers are considered essential. No one is stopping Tesla from making cars at fremont or battery packs at Giga1(well technically Panasonic but they said they will be back at it in a week at this point)

Edit: it would defy logic to allow car manufacturers build cars but the suppliers not be able to work

Has Panasonic reiterated that they are going to reopen GF1 operations next week? Or are you going by the initial 14 day closure notice?

Tesla US production restarting is contingent on every single part produced by 3rd party suppliers restarting production.

I think after this Tesla will be wise to burn some of its cash on building up several months of 3rd party supplied parts storage for future situations similar to this.

The “Just-in-time” supply chain that has been championed by MBAs and accountants for the last couple of decades to maximise capital efficiency has been shown to have a fatal flaw in this crisis.

 

[Singuy]

If you look at China and S. Korea, EVERYONE is wearing a mask, not to keep from getting the virus (since regular surgical masks don't work that well for that), but to keep an asymptomatic person from spreading it to others. We can't do that here because we don't have 300 Million masks yet to give to citizens. But I don't think we are going back to work until that happens. Someone can have the virus and give it to others for up to 12 days if it takes them that long to get sick (and there lies the problem). Hopefully by the end of April the US will have enough masks that we can restart the economy with the order that nobody can be in public places without one. The stimulus package kept the Markets afloat this week. I'm expecting Macros next week to be red, and maybe the week after as well. I'm hoping to pick up more shares in the second half of the month as case numbers are leveling out. I expect V-shaped recovery once everyone has a mask and regular economic activity starts back up.

US needs to take it seriously. Free masks need to be shipped via USPS. They need to decrease the barrier of entry when everyone thinks mask are expensive.

 

[sparcs]

Elon Musk on Twitter

still on track to raise prices on FSD by July 1st. Interesting to see how much value will be added. I read it as bullish considering the macro events. How many other car companies will be raising prices in the near future?

Elon Musk on Twitter

Hoping to roll out traffic lights & stops to wide US release in a few weeks & probably WW release in Q3 (so many variations in each country!). Very important to make sure this is done right.

Elon Musk on Twitter

We’re going to simplify Plaid a little. Was getting too complex.

 

[jerry33]

US needs to take it seriously. Free masks need to be shipped via USPS.

They are not likely to do that because that would show the USPS is necessary--and they've been trying to shut it down for years.