Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

Verbatim from the Q1 2019 delivery report:

That was DIFFERENT!! OMG! They had to reaffirm guidance because Q1 didn’t go as planned. So they had to tell everyone, don’t worry, be happy, we got this despite what you’re all thinking right now. Like come on.

Now is not even comparable. Why must this be pointed out to this crowd?

 

[mongo]

One thing I have noticed is that what sites like Investopedia and fool report as the requirements are different than what the S&P 500 itself lists as requirements with the latter being more lax. I'm struggling to find the actual link from Standard and Poor but I believe the criteria for current quarter to be profitable is not correct.

This article is what the actual S&P document stated, but perhaps there is something I'm missing.

What the S&P 500 Tells You About America's Health

What the other sites get wrong is saying all 4 previous quarters must be profitable, that is incorrect.
Previous quarter should be GAAP profitable, sum of previous 4 should be GAAP profitable.

https://us.spindices.com/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-us-indices.pdf

S&P Composite 1500. The sum of the most recent four consecutive quarters’ Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) earnings (net income excluding discontinued operations) should be positive as should the most recent quarter.

 

[Krugerrand]

3/12 VA Gov declared state of emergency: banned state employee travel and implemented telework; limited public gatherings and cancellation of large events
3/14 VA Gov closes schools for 2 weeks
3/17 VA Gov enforces 10 person rule, closes all restaurants (except take out), fitness centers and theaters that can not reduce capacity
3/23 VA Gov orders statewide closure of certain non-essential businesses and K-12 schools
3/30 VA Gov announces statewide stay at home order through June 10th

Thank you that gives me perspective. Timing of events is very similar. Your Governor has decided to get people used to the idea of another 8 weeks rather than the broader 4 weeks one.

How are people in your state feeling about another possible 2 months? I’d imagine that would stir some restlessness.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Pretty much what I expected out of today but sheesh, they were able to drop it easier and quicker than even I thought the manipulation would be able to. I was thinking they'd shoot to just have it close below 500 AND that they would need a 3-4% macro down day to achieve. Instead there was zero resistance at dropping the stock.

But as a I said yesterday, I'm not surprised and put the odds on this exact scenario happening once I saw how much manipulation/selling pressure had come into the stock for the past 4-5 days. I'm prepared for months of this type of trading at this point.

 

[TNEVol]

I

I don't want to make legal arguments here but it's clear that the county order is open to legal interpretation. So I would caution (again) against pretending to know who would prevail.

I agree with Stealth. But I want to add that remedial laws like health safety and welfare normally permit more stringent local measures. A good example is CA's argument for more stringent CAFE standards than EPA. In addition in this situation I expect Governors to defer to local government re more stringent measures to avoid responsibility and blame. UGH

 

[azaz]

hey haven't been on much lately but what happened with @Fact Checking and @KarenRei ?

 

[Prunesquallor]

hey haven't been on much lately but what happened with @Fact Checking and @KarenRei ?

Voluntary quarantine.

 

[Krugerrand]

That is exactly my point. My comments were in response to another commenter suggesting that the lack of guidance update is bullish. I come in and say that "hey, that's not necessarily bullish" and everyone gets their panties in a bunch.

Yes, because you didn’t quote the original comment and you didn’t specify your intent other than to say — not to be a —

You just let a stand alone comment hang on the wash line blowing in the wind like dirty laundry airing out.

And then for added affect you argued incorrect information as fact. So now I’m calling BS on your stated intent. Here’s my wadded up panties and I’ve included a marshmallow.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I agree with Stealth. But I want to add that remedial laws like health safety and welfare normally permit more stringent local measures. A good example is CA's argument for more stringent CAFE standards than EPA. In addition in this situation I expect Governors to defer to local government re more stringent measures to avoid responsibility and blame. UGH

What others have said though has nothing to do with being more stringent. The state through it's orders classified auto makers as essential......the county can't turn around and then state Tesla is not essential. That's in direct conflict of the state orders. It has nothing to do with being more stringent. You can't fundamentally re-classify something when the level of government above has already classified it as something.

Even in your own example above. CA's can be more stringent on CAFE standards than the US government. But they aren't re-classifying standards or re-classifying what makes an EV, or an ICE car.

 

[Krugerrand]

a little macro help could go a long way here...

Alcohol and cheese puffs help me. Just putting that out there.

 

[Yoona]

If i am just a day trader, would now be a good time to sell while I'm up +30? Then, buy back this afternoon. I know, I know, don't time the market. But this is my play money and my longs are in another account. Help!

 

[ZeApelido]

Regrettably, not quite. Q2 last year was also a biggish loss. (Remember: GAAP)
Q219 -408
Q319 +143
Q419 +105
---------------
need +160 in Q1 to be GAAP profitable for the last 4 quarters. This is unlikely to happen.

However, so long as Q2 is positive, with Q219 dropping out, it's virtually certain that Tesla would qualify for inclusion, since Q1 would have to be a loss of $248M or so to prevent it, which is unlikely. But will Q2 be positive? Very hard to tell.

Considering the Fremont factory likely won't be producing cars for a month, and internet search interest in Tesla has gone down 50% (and further in the last week), Q2 profitability looks quite unlikely.

TSLA shares appreciate massively when quarterly profits happen.

 

[kbM3]

But we’ll recapture those lost gains when Fremont is back open. Then when the country opens up again we’ll get back to where we were. Q3 and Q4 could be incredible. It’s going to be similar to last year imo.

Anyone have a breakdown on if Tesla could be profitable in Q1? I figure it’s a long shot but maybe not with subscription service, upgrades over phone, and some good money management

‘Experts believe that if the virus is seasonal we will see a 2nd wave in the fall. If it is not seasonal, we might be doomed to bouts of social distancing interspersed with bouts of relaxing guidelines. And to make it tough on supply chains, different parts of the world will be going through these phases at different times. In either case, we are likely in for a very bumpy road in 2020.

I would personally be shocked if the economy fully recovers in H2 2020. As @Singuy points out, the ripple effects even spread to doctors and many other unexpected places.

Best case is that it is very seasonal and some anti-viral drug shows incredible promise.

 

[Krugerrand]

If i am just a day trader, would now be a good time to sell while I'm up +30? Then, buy back this afternoon. I know, I know, don't time the market. But this is my play money and my longs are in another account. Help!

If your a day trader, here’s a complimentary bag of marshmallows and let me show you the door.

 

[Christine69420]

If i am just a day trader, would now be a good time to sell while I'm up +30? Then, buy back this afternoon. I know, I know, don't time the market. But this is my play money and my longs are in another account. Help!

You may have better luck getting responses in the trading thread:

trading

 

[generalenthu]

I think we should get a campaign started to highlight how contactless refueling is critical for covid control. So either get a Tesla or move to NJ where they pump your gas. Or do both, because NJ has probably the best EV incentives stateside.

On second thoughts NJ? Really?? and the gas station attendants handle your credit card . No thanks, I'll pass.

 

[StealthP3D]

What others have said though has nothing to do with being more stringent. The state through it's orders classified auto makers as essential......the county can't turn around and then state Tesla is not essential. That's in direct conflict of the state orders. It has nothing to do with being more stringent. You can't fundamentally re-classify something when the level of government above has already classified it as something.

Can you stop re-hashing this? The state order defines which businesses are "essential" and then it excluded those businesses from the state order. The state order only regulates non-essential businesses and it defined which businesses are exempt from its order. It did not prevent local authorities from regulating essential businesses, should they deem it necessary. In fact, it specifically said local authorities could add additional restrictions if deemed necessary to protect health.

Please note that I'm not arguing that one couldn't make the legal argument that the State order does in fact require local authorities to protect "essential" businesses at all costs (by implication of the common understanding of the meaning of the word "essential") but it certainly doesn't say that and it's not a given. It's also not how the law commonly works.

There are some legal principles here and I don't think it would serve the discussion well to try to hash them out here other than to say that it's far from a given that the state order precludes the local regulation of "essential" businesses. The mistake those of you who think it does prevent local regulation of essential businesses is the assumption that the law requires "essential" businesses to operate at any and all costs. That is clearly not the case (nor was it stated). Only a court of law could make this determination and I know enough about how these things work to know that it could go either way depending upon which way the wind is blowing and how well the opposing cases are presented.

Now can we drop it?

 

[StealthP3D]

If i am just a day trader, would now be a good time to sell while I'm up +30? Then, buy back this afternoon. I know, I know, don't time the market. But this is my play money and my longs are in another account. Help!

Since it's just "play money", do whatever you want. In other words, go play and have fun.

 

[CorneliusXX]

‘Experts believe that if the virus is seasonal we will see a 2nd wave in the fall. If it is not seasonal, we might be doomed to bouts of social distancing interspersed with bouts of relaxing guidelines. And to make it tough on supply chains, different parts of the world will be going through these phases at different times. In either case, we are likely in for a very bumpy road in 2020.

I would personally be shocked if the economy fully recovers in H2 2020. As @Singuy points out, the ripple effects even spread to doctors and many other unexpected places.

Best case is that it is very seasonal and some anti-viral drug shows incredible promise.

I seriously doubt we'll ever shut down again from the rona. Not only is herd immunity slowly growing, but there are promising drug treatments and vaccines being fast tracked. Additionally, there will be millions more ventilators available in a few months.

Sadly, many of the most susceptible will also have passed - which further reduces the shock on the healthcare system.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

So just because someone doesn't agree with my view on a topic that I didnt originally bring up, I'm clueless on the topic . Yeah I think I'm done here. Have fun guys on the forum