Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SageBrush]

Right, but there is an 18 euro subscription fee every month and minimum contract term is 12 months. You are already paying 215 euro just for the privileged to be able to use Ionity chargers at 31 cents/kwh.

Tarife - Audi DE - DCS

That varies by the manufacturer; and in any case even at 18 Euro the breakeven is ~ 36 kWh a month usage.
The specifics vary, no doubt about it. I just prefer that we do not bandy about the worse case fee as if it applies universally.

 

[ggr]

Then is posting only a small part of the article kosher with proper attribution ? Say ... one image ?

I'm not trying to be argumentative or cute here, just wondering.

Personal, not official: It's generally accepted that with attribution (eg. a link to the original article) quoting a small part of the article is fine. We want you to either describe what the link is, or post an indicative quote, so people won't follow the link unless they want to. But an image that was clearly labeled "Getty Images"? No.

 

[pz1975]

We're almost back to normal trading. TSLA's movements somewhat mirror the macros, and we are up a bit more than double the NASDAQ index. Volatility is way down. Despite my portfolio losing money due to calls going down with decreased volatility, I'm a happy camper.

If the 700s are the new 200s then I am fine with that (for now).

 

[SageBrush]

Elon is giving me a headache.
Has the April talk been rebranded "Tesla April Company Talk" to take the heat off battery announcements, or to hide the fireworks ?

 

[Highway2Heel]

He’s trying to be TACTful...

 

[Maitri982]

Is 1T in revenues the top? Or is there still growth beyond 2030?

This is the mind boggling thought that goes beyond much of what we know about how to value it.

Someone should ask Baron the simple question does he expect continued growth beyond 2030? If so, 1T of revenue not a top and Tesla at 1T revenue will have a higher multiple of that as market valuation.

Again, Saudi Oil Company is valued at 6T and at it top... is that revenue the top for Tesla or can an argument be made Tesla can become bigger than saudi oil?

And for those that want to know how much their 1000 shares are worth at that point, Ark Invest 2024 best case would become a buy opportunity. A nice payday for changing the world for the better. Thank you and pay it forward.

Damn hard to project out 10 years much less beyond that. 10 year projections these days are fanciful really...hard for us to know what we don't know...like some pimple faced scientist battery researcher at Ford making some world changing battery breakthrough that they now have captive.

Baron's projections assume Tesla retains lead in EV and Battery tech and they execute on the new GF# and manufacturing fronts. these may all play out to be true...with Elon at the helm the odds are in our favor...so any 10 year projection has to make several assumptions like that to be any way near accurate.

 

[dakh]

My best guess is that Tesla's insurance activity will always be immaterial to Tesla. So far, my guess is that what we'll see on Tesla's quarter statements will amount to a finder's fee from some other insurance company, with Tesla having people actively involved in the design and redesign of the evolving insurance product. Which means it'll be the insurance company with the float they get to invest, not Tesla.

Pretty clear that insurance now isn't an emphasis but a stake in the ground for future developments. There's some merit to have it now because of the data advantage, but the real deal will be when autonomy becomes available. As with incumbent automakers, insurance ones won't like their collective pie suddenly shrinking due to drastically reduced accident rates. Tesla will need a big hammer to beat them over their heads to get them motivated to adapt (or die). It is a necessary piece of the overall puzzle and I think it is very reasonable to take it on early in the game so everything is ready when it starts to count.

 

[Foghat]

That may depend on whether or not Elon is still CEO by then or whether he's on Mars! If Elon is still there then I don't doubt he will have plenty of ideas to bring in more revenue!

Elon may die on Mars, but not going to be for a few more decades, and it sure as hell won’t be on impact.

 

[Nocturnal]

LOL!!! so True!

Anyhow back to your other point, I am a prototypical American car guy. Have always been.

But I noticed that anytime I hail a Lyft or Uber - there is a sense that some level of responsibility has been lifted off my shoulders for: traffic, accidents, time, maintenenance, appearance.

Now am not saying I don't have to be aware or coordination is not needed. But geesh - it feels a lot less stressful.

There is a shift in perception for sure. When you are in an Uber, or even just on autopilot, do you get stressed out when a car get's in front of you and "slows you down" by 10 seconds? Do you feel the need to tell the driver to speed to get there faster? If most people are like me in this area, I think the answer is no. Why? I suspect it's because we don't have the same flight or fight reactions and are allowed to just do what we want. We aren't driving anymore, we are just sitting and can read or play on our phones or just space out.

I'm a car guy as well, and I love driving. What I don't love is spending time in traffic, waiting at stop lights, or dealing with accidents. Owning a car and driving has represented freedom since the early days of the automobile, perhaps in the near future our new sense of freedom will revolve around not needing to own a car or drive ourselves.

 

[Foghat]

Elon is giving me a headache.
Has the April talk been rebranded "Tesla April Company Talk" to take the heat off battery announcements, or to hide the fireworks ?

I think he’s giving Battery Day in Buffalo as a way to market the solar part of the business, which had been sidelined for almost two years in terms of Elon marketing power.
This may also be an indicator that cell production is going to increase massively since now can scale energy storage, maybe even announce solar sold with storage as a combo deal package for home and business.

1-2twh “master plan” announcement might be in the works as well

 

[jerry33]

Reference ?

My somewhat vague memory is ~ $65k household as the median. Mean numbers are heavily skewed by the top 0.1%

Been a couple of years, but "mean" is half the instances are above and half the instances are below. Average is the total divided by the number of instances. Let's make sure we're talking mean rather than average.

 

[Fact Checking]

LOL!!! so True!

Anyhow back to your other point, I am a prototypical American car guy. Have always been.

But I noticed that anytime I hail a Lyft or Uber - there is a sense that some level of responsibility has been lifted off my shoulders for: traffic, accidents, time, maintenenance, appearance.

Now am not saying I don't have to be aware or coordination is not needed. But geesh - it feels a lot less stressful.

Being a passenger turns the trip from "work and responsibly" where every extra unnecessary minute spent driving is your "fault", into "personal downtime" where extra time is often welcome.

This is why executives and wealthy people often have drivers.

Tasha is right, autonony is going to be far more transformative than just EVs: everyone will have their private AI drivers, which frees up a lot of time. This process also puts the company that controls the self-driving tech and the in-car entertainment tech into a powerful gatekeeper position.

 

[Nocturnal]

Been a couple of years, but "mean" is half the instances are above and half the instances are below. Average is the total divided by the number of instances. Let's make sure we're talking mean rather than average.

FWIW, there are 3 types of "average". (I think range is included as well but I don't see the point) Mean is the sum divided by total number, and can be thrown off by unusual distribution curves. Median is the "middle" number so it often ignores large outliers. Mode is the number with the highest count. (most common)

Take a set of 5, 10, 10, 12, and 30. Mean is 13.4. Mode is 10. Median is 11.

 

[Zaxxon]

Heck, I'll take a few tenths of a percent every day for the next few months. I'm not greedy.

Thanks, gods of stonks!

 

[EinSV]

Elon is giving me a headache.
Has the April talk been rebranded "Tesla April Company Talk" to take the heat off battery announcements, or to hide the fireworks ?

I think "Company Talk" could be different from "Battery Day."

For example, a leaked email from last May referred to a "company talk" -- sounds like this could be a meeting/call that takes place periodically within the company.

From: Elon Musk

To: Everybody

Date: May 16, 2019

As mentioned at the company talk, it is extremely important that we examine every expenditure at Tesla no matter how small, and be sure that it is critical. When making hundreds of thousands of cars, battery packs and solar systems, even a ten cent savings could be worth over $50,000 a year.... Read the email Elon Musk sent to Tesla employees calling for 'hardcore' control of expenses
​

Edit: And here's another reference to a "company talk" from early 2017

As we get closer to being a profitable company, we will be able to afford more and more fun things. For example, as I mentioned at the last company talk, we are going to hold a really amazing party once Model 3 reaches volume production later this year. Elon Musk addresses working condition claims in Tesla staff-wide email – TechCrunch​

 

[dw4ngg]

Some quick back-of-the-napkin math using hopefully conservative assumptions to estimate what market cap and stock price we can expect from TSLA in 2020... took some #'s from Tesla earnings report (https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/b3cf7f5e-546a-4a65-9888-c928b914b529) to derive avg. sales price per vehicle of $54.5k -

54.5k x est. 500k vehicles delivered/sold => ~$27.250b revenues.. at 6% operating margin (which assumes about a 20% growth from 2019 due to increase efficiencies of Model Y and decreased costs from lessons learned) => ~$1.635b in operating profit....

Then, arbitrarily applying NFLX PE ratio of 90x to that $1.635b in profits... we get ~$147.15b market capitalization. That's about 5% more than the current ~$140b market cap based on today's closing price of 774.38/share (180.24m shares outstanding).

So, random ass guess FMV should be $813/share... let's go.

(edited for poor math)

(edit: also assuming no income taxes b/c of significant deferred tax assets in the form of NOLs)

(last edit: using an even more arbitrary 10x revenue valuation methodology, we can derive a $272.5b market cap which would yield an amazing $1,448.88/share target.. let's go w/ this one instead...)

 

[ggr]

Been a couple of years, but "mean" is half the instances are above and half the instances are below. Average is the total divided by the number of instances. Let's make sure we're talking mean rather than average.

No, he's right. Median is half above and half below. Mean is the the total divided by the number of instances. A lot of people mean (sic) median when they say average, particularly when talking about skewed distributions like income, but usually average means mean.
Mean vs Median - Difference and Comparison | Diffen

 

[geneclean55]

JP Morgan Chase increases TSLA holdings from 358,000 to 2,537,000 in latest filing.
JP Morgan Chase Analyst price target 240 SELL.

 

[Cupidchild]

On the flipside, at least we are not THIS boring today.
I knew I should have diversified a bit

That's why I bought 50k of Uber. Lol

 

[lklundin]

Don't count on Friday being down. If you want to buy more stock, do so. While no one knows the future, the price on Friday is not likely to be appreciably less than it is now and it could be appreciably more. There were people who were "waiting for the drop" at $500 and they're still waiting...

If you don't want to pay current prices for whatever reason, that's fine. For example, I decided I was too heavy on $TSLA and put money elsewhere. If the shorts/MM/whoever knock the price down far enough it will become a deal that is too good to resist and I'll sell the other and buy more $TSLA. But, for me, they'll have to reach for a nice big discount and I'm not really expecting it. (It helps that this is in an IRA so I don't have to worry about taxes on short term trades.)

In short, trying to time the market is foolish: if you want $TSLA buy $TSLA. Being flexible with your assets is fine, but keep in your mind that holding it as cash is an implicit belief that doing so will provide higher returns -- but your post seems to lack conviction in that regard.

For options expiring this Friday Max Pain is currently 740$, 34$ below today's close. I will not be trading, but could well imagine that on Friday we end up closer to Max Pain than we are now.

Next week may see another attempt to drive down the SP, since Max Pain is at only 595$ - I guess this reflects the low expectations of the SP when these contracts were sold. Also, there is almost 69k put contracts at 100$, with 2nd, 3rd and 4th largest put contract strike prices also below 200$, so major losses expected for Tesla-anti investors.

Based on Max Pain of next week, I would expect end of next week to be more likely to offer a dip than this week.