Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Menifeer]

Tesla, please be sure to allow for a roof rack, these folks need to hold onto their outdoorsy identity, seems like a small thing but here, no pod, no status

And make sure it has a trailer hitch...

 

[Joe F]

Source for your statement?

Seriously?

 

[Fobble]

Ironically, my wife couldn't watch the reveal because she had to be in to work early today (6am ET) - but, when I woke up, I had a text waiting on me that read, "Did you put our deposit in on the Y? It's awesome! I want a white one". Go figure.

Now there is a bigger problem than just the "disagree" from forum members. I have concern on your marriage

 

[Thumper]

Saskatchewan runs on Corner Gas.

 

[Tenable]

So what should we do about those that bought the option in 2016-2017 when the communication from Elon and Tesla has always been that unsupervised driving in public traffic is going to be possible with their car?

What do we do with buyers such as myself that shelled out over 100k in 2015 after being promised my car would drive itself to the front of my building playing my favorite music and a temperature of my choosing every morning and then park itself. You know, with AP1 hardware. Given that I am in the process of trading the car in for a 60k haircut, I'd assume the answer is we go **** ourselves. With that said, I still loved the car and now I'm waiting for delivery of a P3D because of the same and improved AP promises. Perhaps I haven't learned my lesson, but heres hoping its different this time.

 

[scaesare]

Nio "revealed" 4 or 5 cars already. Does that impress you?

With the awards, safety rating, market share, and volume/growth they've achieved? No.

So Tesla revealed the Semi and the new Roadster. Revealing your concept or even your production model is zero, zilch, nothing until you commit to a production date and some evidence of that production begins. Essentially, Tesla has put 3 cars into production in 15 years (see how you can use statistics to prove any point).

With the awards, safety rating, market share, and volume/growth they've achieved for the cars they've moved to production, I do find this impressive.

What's more, given they've demonstrated they can go from reveal to production for the S, X, and 3, there's solid basis to believe they will be able to do so for the Y, Roadster2.0 and Semi.

A ton of people have clicked Disagree on my posts about the Model Y. However, I see that Wall Street agrees with me.

You, sir, are in the company you deserve.

Ironically, my wife couldn't watch the reveal because she had to be in to work early today (6am ET) - but, when I woke up, I had a text waiting on me that read, "Did you put our deposit in on the Y? It's awesome! I want a white one". Go figure.

Must be one of those sheeple you mentioned earlier that don't subscribe to your 'objective" opinions.

 

[Buddyroe]

Now there is a bigger problem than just the "disagree" from forum members. I have concern on your marriage

Thanks for your concern. However, she is on the way home right now driving her....uhh, my Model S. So, we have a perfect marriage (at least for her!!).

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Seems they issued some kind of correction:

Correction: Model Y Timing in Line with Company Expectations | Loup Ventures

Yeah...……..Gene is pretty clueless. Tesla is not going to raise cash by issuing stock and at the current price point, every investors should not want them to raise cash through issuing stock. Maybe if the stock was where it should be in the 500/share range.....but I'm not ok with them issuing stock at this ridiculously low share price.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Found link to this one:

Electric Cars Are an Extraordinarily Bad Idea

Funny to read... so wrong.

View attachment 386713

Wow, even at the time a lot of that was spectacularly wrong. A 2011 LEAF with minimal battery degradation could run the heat ~22 hours straight before running out of energy. The problem highlighted with traffic delays are a much bigger problem for ICE vehicles than even weak BEV’s like the early LEAF.

 

[Tenable]

The Model 3 has no height-adjustable suspension yet. Elon tweeted that it would be available. Not sure why it's not yet... but that is also on the list of potential improvements

I'm taking delivery of my P3D next week. My only 3 complaints are, no L option, no height adjustable suspension, and no power trunk. If they offer these features 2 months from now I'll be seriously tilted. As such, I'm 99% sure its coming soon. Perhaps in the next 10 days.

 

[KarenRei]

What do we do with buyers such as myself that shelled out over 100k in 2015 after being promised my car would drive itself to the front of my building playing my favorite music and a temperature of my choosing every morning and then park itself. You know, with AP1 hardware. Given that I am in the process of trading the car in for a 60k haircut...

Wow, 60% depreciation in 4 years for an electric car, how terrible... (/snark) On average by contrast, a Renault Zoe loses 60% of its value in 3 years.

If you don't like depreciation, don't buy new cars. Cars are not investments. The point of buying a new car is to acquire something that you'll love to own and drive.

With that said, I still loved the car

Then mission f'ing accomplished.

Re, self-driving: everyone in the self-driving field was making those "self driving is just around the corner!" claims. They were all wrong. We were supposed to have self-driving taxis with no safety drivers putting human taxi drivers out of business, remember?

I've long been a FSD pessimist. That said, in the past year, I have been impressed with the improvements. I still think it's going to be a long time before they hit level 5 (e.g. no need for a driver to pay attention). But it wouldn't surprise me at all if they have the basic features for city self-driving (with a human driver at the wheel) by the end of the year, as the plan is. E.g. stop lights, stop signs, traffic circles, etc. Level 3-4.

I still think Level 5 is years out.

 

[GBleck]

I agree with some of your points. I watched the event while it was streaming live, and I found it disappointing as well. I was looking for a great deal of information and coverage on the model Y. I was really surprised there was only about 5 minutes of that. The event seemed minimally focused on the Y. However, Tesla isn't known for consistently strong presentations. The X reveal was pretty bad. The 2nd model 3 reveal was pretty weak as was the event to signify the start of deliveries of the model 3. That's just the way Tesla approaches these events. They are not Apple. I think part of the charm of the events is that they do still seem to come from a startup rather than a $50B market cap company looking to release its 5th vehicle. This event was no different. Now, who's producing the SpaceX live stream events? Those have gotten much more polished over time. That has not rubbed off on Tesla.

I think Benjamin Higginbotham is in charge of SpaceX's live streams. Also produces a fun space news and discussion program called TMRO. Live streams on Saturday and news on Wednesday.

 

[c041v]

Nio "revealed" 4 or 5 cars already. Does that impress you? So Tesla revealed the Semi and the new Roadster. Revealing your concept or even your production model is zero, zilch, nothing until you commit to a production date and some evidence of that production begins. Essentially, Tesla has put 3 cars into production in 15 years (see how you can use statistics to prove any point).

A ton of people have clicked Disagree on my posts about the Model Y. However, I see that Wall Street agrees with me.

Ironically, my wife couldn't watch the reveal because she had to be in to work early today (6am ET) - but, when I woke up, I had a text waiting on me that read, "Did you put our deposit in on the Y? It's awesome! I want a white one". Go figure.

I don't post all that often, but there's been some recurring themes around the Y presentation I feel compelled to weigh in on;

To me, the timing of the Y reveal was more about Tesla holding to a date they committed to, rather than simply releasing a concept. I think the biggest thing that impressed me with the Y is the parts similarity to Model 3. It seems like (much to my dismay) that crossovers are what sells today, and the Y is proof that Tesla has learned not to build another Faberge egg/Spaceship hybrid in turning the sedan into an SUV. The Y will be simple to build and there's likely a lot of carryover from what they've learned with the 3. You'll also note that Tesla has been slowly filling market segments, when just a few years ago, many thought they'd never get past the X. This is execution in motion.

Further, while I was trying to convince my wife to get a P3D the other day, she was relatively indifferent. When I wrapped up the conversation by mentioning the Y was coming out, that piqued her interest and she said "Let me know when that's available". I think there's something a lot of people are missing here, which is the practical appeal and utility of the Y. It might not be what most die-hard (generally) male fans, but it's what will sell, a lot.

As for Elon, if you've watched any of his previous presentations, this one was indeed more casual and definitely scripted as evidenced by the few slide prompts you might have seen. Probably a good thing but it did seem a bit more forced. I personally don't attribute anything to Elon's mood during these things as I think he just enjoys doing them given each one has better stats to talk about than the last. I bet it's fun as hell to giggle with your fans at all the people who said you'd fail a decade ago.

 

[KSilver2000]

They now have 4 cars hitting multiple price points built on the pretty much the same tech, motor, battery platform.

And a huge network of superchargers to charge them, locking people into the Tesla ecosystem.

Do you mean each model has a range of pricing?
Because the model 3 and Y are pretty much same pricing and the Model S and X are pretty much same pricing.

And I wouldn’t necessarily say the supercharging network locks people into Tesla. It’s not like people with a Tesla cannot charge elsewhere. I bet most of charging is done at home, meaning it’s plausible people would still buy a Tesla even without a supercharging network because the competition of EV cars is still not up to par.
More like the network is a benefit of owning a Tesla.

 

[Causalien]

I thought its only me.

He gained lot of weight during the production hell times, but it appears to me that he lost most of it. His social media behavior is different too. I still remember the "dark ages" when he repeated tanked the stock price and we were like "this guy will never learn".

it seems to me the gained weight and the nasty social media posts are due to tremendous amount of pressure at that time. The short thesis is that Tesla is facing bankwupcy since they can't sell cars. I think if that is true, Elon may not be able to loss weight and laugh when people comment on his shoes.

For me it's the jokes he pulled. It represents a different state of mind. He is switching from reacting to his enemies to making jokes about things he cares about.

But ya he lost weight. Great. Health should be the #1 priority. Becoming like the muscle Rock could be something to aim for. Just move slowly and surely from now on and don't put health or Corp in the model 3 ramp situation again.

 

[PhaseWhite]

Talking about needing capital raise without showing a model is spreading fud. Remember bankwuptcy fud last year? It turned out to be 3B away from it. Paging luvb2b...

It's certainly not FUD to debate the decisions Tesla leadership is making, nor did I say that they NEED to raise capital or they will go bankrupt. My point was that raising capital would have prevented Tesla from having to make some hard (and rash) choices sooner than they wanted to and might also help them accelerate development of their new products at a time that competitors are also ramping up investment.

 

[dc_h]

Surprised you completely missed the point. If 375-400 miles of range were in any way practical to achieve at this point in time Tesla would do it. Anyone paying any attention to the state of battery technologies knows that is not currently possible, so it's a completely unrealistic expectation.

Roadster 600 miles range. It’s possible. Resource constraints are the likely limitations. Design team, engineering team, potential new stamping molds and possibly need to move to new batteries. It can be done, but won’t if it will slow down the Roadster, pickup, semi or Y. I think it’s needed and this is the shorts big win. If Tesla borrowed one more 4 billion tranche, they could start model Y plant now, refresh SX and do the pickup, semi and Roadster.
Maybe for the best. I’m hoping the other thing was GF4 and the AP3 is in every new car with FSD.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

We should get production and delivery numbers in ~2 weeks.

Yeah I know we'll get those numbers in about 16 days......but I'm actually genuinely concerned about how low wall st will drive the price down in the meantime until then......especially if the macro's decline over the next 2 weeks(they are already near all-time highs) It's pretty crazy. After Q3 earnings, I thought we'd never see the share price below 300 again. Considering how much positive news came out of the Q3 earnings and since then, I'm amazed at how Wall St was able to play this thing back down to the 270 level. I'm pretty disappointed in large scale funds/investors that are essentially sitting on the sidelines and I really can't wrap my head around why they would not be heavily buying shares at 300 or under.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Has anyone worked out now exactly which dimensions, volume or weight Elon was referring to when he said Y was 10% bigger than 3?

 

[voip-ninja]

BMW is crap reliability. I've owned two previously. The ones made in the 80s/90s okay. Later models, all sorts of problems, and they don't stand by their work. All four window motors replaced early on. Window top water guard came off at around 50,000 miles on both sides. Paid for a new one, which came off again just after a year. Neither the local dealer or BMW North America would honor the warranty. Told me that I had to pay full price to repair it again. Never again will I buy one!

Well, that's your anecdotal experience. My anecdotal experience is that my last 5 BMW/Mini purchases over the past 20 years have been mostly trouble free.

My Model 3 on the other hand has spent more time with service than those 5 cars combined and that's in less than six months of ownership.

Let's see how many "loves" my anecdotal experience gets compared to yours.