Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

I'm taking delivery of my P3D next week. My only 3 complaints are, no L option, no height adjustable suspension, and no power trunk. If they offer these features 2 months from now I'll be seriously tilted. As such, I'm 99% sure its coming soon. Perhaps in the next 10 days.

Are you of the opinion that those three options will come to the Model 3 soon? I don't think they'll ever come to the Model 3: luxury convenience features and extra space are differentiation for the S/X.

 

[shlokavica22]

Then mission f'ing accomplished.

Wow, Karen relax.

 

[KSilver2000]

I'm taking delivery of my P3D next week. My only 3 complaints are, no L option, no height adjustable suspension, and no power trunk. If they offer these features 2 months from now I'll be seriously tilted. As such, I'm 99% sure its coming soon. Perhaps in the next 10 days.

I wish the 3 had those options/features as well. But, I’m certain those features will never ever come to the 3 and Y. Those are what differentiates the 3 and Y from the more premium S and X. Otherwise, why bother to make two separate cars if all it is a slight difference in size. Look at all the other car manufacturers, no way they add unique features on the X5/7 to the X3, and so on.

Just enjoy your P3D.
I’m waiting 2 years for those P3D to depreciate by almost half and buy used, just like we did to get our current ludicrous Tesla’s.

 

[Fact Checking]

Has anyone worked out now exactly which dimensions, volume or weight Elon was referring to when he said Y was 10% bigger than 3?

Height and volume mostly, I believe. Length and width is about the same, right?

 

[KarenRei]

Wow, Karen relax.

Nah, I'm more in this kind of mood. "Hatred will win, Europe will collapse, love will die..."

 

[jerry33]

If Tesla borrowed one more 4 billion tranche, they could start model Y plant now, refresh SX and do the pickup, semi and Roadster.

Yes, they could (assuming enough engineers), but why would they? Firing all their bullets at the same time leaves their cylinders empty. You always want to have a few bullets left. Also they'd have to have one heck of a distribution chain to deliver all the various vehicles at the same time.

 

[Zaxxon]

Ironically, my wife couldn't watch the reveal because she had to be in to work early today (6am ET) - but, when I woke up, I had a text waiting on me that read, "Did you put our deposit in on the Y? It's awesome! I want a white one". Go figure.

Enjoy your Y!

 

[Cherry Wine]

Nah, I'm more in this kind of mood. "Hatred will win, Europe will collapse, love will die..."

That makes two of us. Foul mood today.

 

[Artful Dodger]

It won’t be S3XY AF. It will be UR S3XY.

Don't forget about the $25K car coming in "2-3 yrs".

It will be UR 2 S3XY.

Cheers!

 

[KSilver2000]

Height and volume mostly, I believe. Length and width is about the same, right?

You’re likely right.
They’re built on the same platform. So, it’d be hard to make it much different.

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

\

Model Y announcement play

Sold tsla 190315 280/300 strangle 5x for credit of 2.70$/contract

KEY FACTS
--- Musk is expected tonight to unveil the Model Y compact sport-utility vehicle.

--- That will come days after cutting the price of Tesla's Model 3 to reach mainstream buyers.

--- Tesla is targeting a broader base of buyers with an SUV.

--- SUVS are the fastest-growing vehicle segment in the US and China.

--- The Model Y is critical to Musk's bid to pump out a long-promised 1m cars a year, four times its 2018 output.

CLOSED at open above strangle 5x for loss of .20$/contract ( -80$ )
and
BUY 200 tsla @ 277
SOLD tsla 190322 265 put 3x @ 4.00$/contract

 

[Fact Checking]

My point was that raising capital would have prevented Tesla from having to make some hard (and rash) choices sooner than they wanted to and might also help them accelerate development of their new products at a time that competitors are also ramping up investment.

I think it was Elon who made the point that it's a level of maturity for a company to become more capital efficient and grow via internally generated cash, and that this kind of maturity has feedback effects that improve efficiency and growth immensely.

Basically the Model 3 ramp up was a capital financed, "forced growth" event, and it almost broke Tesla.

Elon's reaction to it: never again.

They were able to fix their assembly lines via Sprung Tents and ingenuity, using minimal capex, and just in a few weeks.

Tesla is able to build the Shanghai Gigafactory from just $500m of capex - a fraction of the Model 3 capex.

Tesla is not a small startup anymore that can force growth via external capital anymore. They need to stay the smart Amazon growth machine of the last two quarters.

I fully agree.

 

[brian45011]

Tesla is not going to raise cash by issuing stock and at the current price point, every investors should not want them to raise cash through issuing stock. Maybe if the stock was where it should be in the 500/share range.....but I'm not ok with them issuing stock at this ridiculously low share price.

Are you down with:

In connection with the appointment, Mr. Kirkhorn will receive a stock option grant of $12 million and a restricted stock unit grant of $4 million, which will be granted and will vest over four years in accordance with Tesla’s standard equity policies...

In connection with the appointment, Mr. Taneja will receive a stock option grant of $6 million and a restricted stock unit grant of $2 million, which will be granted and will vest over four years in accordance with Tesla’s standard equity policies.

http://ir.teslamotors.com/static-files/0cac6942-614e-4b16-90bf-c29c98ea2041
​

RSU have a zero basis when exercised.

 

[lascavarian]

Interesting that the reveal has been characterized in a neutral or negative light. If so this could be good for ICE competitors who might feel less pressure.

However, AN (AutoNation) did not react favorably but hit a 52 wk low today it seems.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Screw more shares, I'm saving my last dry powder for far OTM calls for home run leverage. I'm inclined hinge my "final LEAP" investment strategy on Model Y crushing the world and 1Q19 profitability.

I think the Model Y is capable of crushing the world as was foretold, but when will it's popularity be evident? If production of something around $40k doesn't start until late summer 2021 Standard Elon Time, then cannibalizing Model 3 demand in the interim will certainly be spouted as a "glaring indication of demand issues".

On the financial side, efforts to make 1Q19 profitable to "screw over the shorts" is foolish IMO. 1Q is going to be bad, let it be bad or even really bad if it's advantageous in the medium term.

Combining these two things has me sitting on my hands, there's no real impetus for breakout on the horizon. I think what we'll see(and hopefully is already planned) is a 1yr move up in Model Y production shifting the $39k version up to summer/fall 2020(in real time). Since the base is the same, converting production over should be easy enough. If this happens that's a good 12-16 more months of easy FUD fodder and buying opportunities.

Give me Jan2021 LEAPs at $400 for cheap this summer/fall/winter.

 

[Fact Checking]

Are you down with:

In connection with the appointment, Mr. Kirkhorn will receive a stock option grant of $12 million and a restricted stock unit grant of $4 million, which will be granted and will vest over four years in accordance with Tesla’s standard equity policies...

In connection with the appointment, Mr. Taneja will receive a stock option grant of $6 million and a restricted stock unit grant of $2 million, which will be granted and will vest over four years in accordance with Tesla’s standard equity policies.

http://ir.teslamotors.com/static-files/0cac6942-614e-4b16-90bf-c29c98ea2041
​

RSU have a zero basis when exercised.

In the last 2 years Tesla has been issuing new shares to employees at about the rate of inflation - and it's also a necessary investment, because top talent won't stay without an equity stake.

So yes, dilution via stock compensation is fine.

Dilution via convertibles and equity rounds, especially at these prices far below fair value, not so much.

 

[shlokavica22]

Screw more shares, I'm saving my last dry powder for far OTM calls for home run leverage. I'm inclined hinge my "final LEAP" investment strategy on Model Y crushing the world and 1Q19 profitability.

I think the Model Y is capable of crushing the world as was foretold, but when will it's popularity be evident? If production of something around $40k doesn't start until late summer 2021 Standard Elon Time, then cannibalizing Model 3 demand in the interim will certainly be spouted as a "glaring indication of demand issues".

On the financial side, efforts to make 1Q19 profitable to "screw over the shorts" is foolish IMO. 1Q is going to be bad, let it be bad or even really bad if it's advantageous in the medium term.

Combining these two things has me sitting on my hands, there's no real impetus for breakout on the horizon. I think what we'll see(and hopefully is already planned) is a 1yr move up in Model Y production shifting the $39k version up to summer/fall 2020(in real time). Since the base is the same, converting production over should be easy enough. If this happens that's a good 12-16 more months of easy FUD fodder and buying opportunities.

Give me Jan2021 LEAPs at $400 for cheap this summer/fall/winter.

Why so bearish?

 

[Ocelot]

With an eye that this is the investor thread not the customer thread, here’s what I learnt:

• Given how many people here are surprised or disappointed that it looks like a taller 3, it seems lots of people don’t actually listen to the investor calls. It was at least a year ago that (paraphrase) Elon said he had been talked out of being dumb and doing an entirely new design for the Y. Most recent comments were that c.75% of the parts are common with the 3.

Lol - some real jokers on this forum.

“After tesla repeatedly informs people for more than a year that the model y will be an suv based on the 3 platform, local man upset when Tesla unveils a car that looks like an SUV based on the 3 platform”

.

I have listened to every (i think) investor call since 2012.
Just because a car shares a platform, does not mean it will look the same. Platform sharing analogizes to fraternal, not identical twins.

Also: I'm surprised and terribly disappointed (although I shouldn't be surprised) about all of the people here who don't understand aerodynamics and the critical importance thereof in an EV.

Efficiency touches on everything in an EV, unlike an ICE.

• It means you pay less to charge, both at home and on the road (this is the only issue shared to any meaningful degree with ICEs)
• It means your vehicle is cheaper (gas tanks are cheap, batteries are not)
• It means your vehicle is lighter and handles better (gas tanks and gas aren't that heavy relative to a given amount of added range)
• It means that you go through fewer charge cycles per unit distance that you drive, and thus have greater longevity (gas tanks don't cycle)
• It means that you charge faster (more range per minute spent charging) than you would with a less efficient vehicle (gas filling is fast)

And so on. It touches on everything. It's critical to making a good EV.

I do not think anyone is denying its important and has to be taken into consideration.Do not be too disappointed that people "do not understand" as that is just your projection. There is a huge difference between understanding something, and sharing a different prioritization. Viewing things as 'if only they understood' they would see it my way,in my humble opinion does not ring true here. Drag coefficient and overall efficiency it is obviously a balance, between various things. If it was not a balance, then everyone would be lying flat in their "good' EV. I disagree where the point of balance was placed. Maybe its because we have a Kia Soul EV with a drag coefficient of 0.35, and I think its a very good vehicle?

Well, that was the decision to make a few years ago. They went for the economics and cost benefits of using an existing platform. Maybe five years from now, with a better financial position, they will launch independent SUV platforms. The Y will still sell well because it essentially has zero competition, and the EV + tech (software/autopilot) value outstrips any design/aesthetic considerations from a consumer viewpoint.

I hear you. Sharing platforms though, has been around for as long as I can remember (omnipotent google notes it since 1908) and I am confident they realized that, and planned the model 3 and its relatives accordingly .

Apologize if already addressed but Franz didn't have a clean sheet of paper to start. They purposely shared a significant DNA with the Model 3 for reasons we've beat to death. Not uncommon for large scale production.

Model S was a clean slate. As said above, I am confident they were looking at offspring at the same time as genesis.

I see you're in Canada... aka The Great White North... aka "Brrrr."

Do you know what cold does to an EV's range?

Yes. I drive one.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Are you down with:

In connection with the appointment, Mr. Kirkhorn will receive a stock option grant of $12 million and a restricted stock unit grant of $4 million, which will be granted and will vest over four years in accordance with Tesla’s standard equity policies...

In connection with the appointment, Mr. Taneja will receive a stock option grant of $6 million and a restricted stock unit grant of $2 million, which will be granted and will vest over four years in accordance with Tesla’s standard equity policies.

http://ir.teslamotors.com/static-files/0cac6942-614e-4b16-90bf-c29c98ea2041
​

RSU have a zero basis when exercised.

I take it you're a troll or else I'd have to seriously question your competency. Stock awards and RSU have nothing to do with issuing a equity raise for cash. OH MY GOD THEY GAVE STOCK TO THEIR EXECUTIVES!! Please......

 

[voip-ninja]

Well all of the longs should be happy that it appears there was solid resistance @ $275 and the stock will not close lower than that today, unless Musk tweets out the wrong things.