Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Svetlin]

The 200-week moving average of TSLA is at 274.65 today. It has never been conclusively breached since the start of the epic rise in 2013.

 

[RFernatt]

Just in time for the bell:

Why does life exist?

 

[Mobius484]

Some big buys

 

[KarenRei]

Dangit, spiking up... and here I was waiting just a bit more for it to level out....

 

[Cosmacelf]

Not in the S&X. Only the Model 3 has a liquid cooled AP computer. (And adding liquid cooling during a retro-fit wouldn't be a 30 minute job.)

You sure about S and X not having liquid cooled AP computer?

 

[VValleyEV]

Basically, the F-150 and similar full-size "1/2 ton" pickups are, effectively, the replacement for 1960s/1970s body-on-frame V8 rear wheel drive sedans in the US, although with 4 wheel drive and with a lot more ride height.

Additionally, there's the 3/4 ton (F-250) and 1-ton (F-350) pickups, which are used in much the same way, although with more hauling of heavy loads.

My dad has a Silverado 2500 (a 3/4 ton) that almost exclusively gets used on long journeys - think multiple SC stops needed on a long range Tesla car - with a camper in the bed (something along these lines), and a livestock trailer behind it. If I recall correctly, he gets about 8.5 miles per US gallon of gasoline (about 27.7 l/100 km, or 10.2 miles per Imperial gallon), when driving this.

Probably belongs in Pickup thread, but I have been thinking some about this also.

I agree there are really two pickup markets ready and waiting for EVs: the F-150 used mostly as a car, the high end of which the Rivian is aimed for, and tossing in off-road capability superior to a Jeep Rubicon; and the very large heavy duty gas hog like your dad’s, which seems like the massive P/U EM keeps hinting at is aimed at. Lots of FUD about how an EV can’t be a workingman’s pickup, and so far probably true for the bottom end, but am thinking if the EV Semi and EV heavy construction gear can compete, then so can something aimed at the livestock hauling gas guzzler.

 

[KarenRei]

WTF is wrong with the SEC? Here we have an obvious violation of Regulation FD by Tesla, disclosing this MATERIAL INFORMATION to Deutsche Bank and not to the rest of us, and they're complaining about a harmless tweet?

On the upside: that's 4,4% GM on the $35k variant. ReflexFund's 1-7% estimate was dead on.

GM is going to be just fine in Q1 and Q2. SR+ seems to be more popular than SR, it's mixed in with now-cheaper MR+LR+AWD+P, and only the US can get these cheap variants at all.

 

[anthonyj]

Wtf was that

 

[Unpilot]

Man that was a big buy.....your welcome.

 

[JustAaronnoraA]

Street_InsiderMar 5th, 10:42 am
China custom authorities have accepted Tesla $TSLA plan to remedy issue with car shipment - Reuters

 

[Tslynk67]

Some big buys

Indeed...

 

[ZachF]

Looks like someone just bought a big chunk of shares there...

Screenname?

 

[AcesDealt]

This means if you take GAAP gross profit (revenue - variable costs - allocated costs like depreciation) and add back depreciation (revenue - variable costs), gross profit on the car is $1500. Very useful information; this is slightly better than I expected, since I'm on record as saying $500.

Almost certainly *I* am right and gross margin is negative on the 35k$ model 3. The non-cash components include warranty which is around $1500 and depreciation and probably some other categories.

 

[neroden]

Yesterday's story about China halting 3 imports has just broken on CNBC: China suspends customs clearance for Tesla Model 3 imports - Caixin

Given the way they're bending-over-backwards to get GF3 up-and-running, this is slightly perplexing, unless Tesla have made an admin balls-up.

BEIJING/SHANGHAI, March 5 (Reuters) - China's customs authority has suspended customs clearance procedures for Model 3 cars built by Tesla Inc, the financial publication Caixin reported on Tuesday.

The report said the customs authority in Shanghai had found various irregularities in 1,600 imported Model 3 cars, including the improper labelling of the vehicles.

Tesla has been trying to roll out the Model 3 in China ahead of schedule in a bid to revive sales hit by Sino-U.S. trade tensions.


The firm was not immediately available for comment.

(Reporting by Yilei Sun and David Stanway; Editing by Kevin Liffey)

If only I could read the Caixin report. At least the previous source which reported the leak asked for response from Tesla ("never heard anything") and Customs in Tianjin ("never heard of this").

Probably Tesla didn't have the Chinese equivalent of the Monroney stickers applied correctly. :sigh: They can print stickers.

So:

"According to the Commodity Inspection Department, Shanghai Customs found in the inspection of imported vehicles that four batches of 1600 Tesla Model 3 logos were not in compliance. The 1600 automotive brake fluid tanks have English warning signs, but all are not marked in Chinese. In addition, some vehicles do not have a vehicle nameplate, or the vehicle model and motor power indicator do not match the actual."​

Even if it's legit, this looks rather trivial to resolve.

Yeah, this looks like a triviality: the Caixin report makes it clear that *four batches* had to be fixed, which is not "everything". Tesla has been known to ship cars without the correct Monroney sticker in the US (they've had to correct this). Four batches of warning stickers and a few corrections to other things. It'll be a delay of a few days.

Tesla should be more careful about their paperwork, but it will be easy to correct.

 

[jhm]

Not that I am a copy cat...but I did the same.

We've got to draw a line somewhere. If enough of us hold the line, the attackers will pull back.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

WTF is wrong with the SEC? Here we have an obvious violation of Regulation FD by Tesla, disclosing this MATERIAL INFORMATION to Deutsche Bank and not to the rest of us, and they're complaining about a harmless tweet?

This is NOT OK




This means if you take GAAP gross profit (revenue - variable costs - allocated costs like depreciation) and add back depreciation (revenue - variable costs), gross profit on the car is $1500. Very useful information; this is slightly better than I expected, since I'm on record as saying $500.

In short, the base model 3 is profitable and cash-flow positive but is not yet covering the capital costs of the machinery which is being used to build it (depreciation). Well, actually, I don't know how much depreciation there is in there, if depreciation is less than $1500/car then GAAP gross profit would still be positive, just not as positive. I've no idea how to estimate how much depreciation they're allocating; they spent billions on capital costs, depreciated some of it already, had to write off some of it, and we have no idea how long each piece of equipment or tooling is being depreciated over, so who knows. I am not fond of depreciation as an accounting concept.

Yeah......this was my worry and suspicion. That things were being said on the call that the shareholders weren't getting access to. This would allow the FUD/media/wall st to run with a doomsday narrative which they have. I just can't understand Teslas part in this. Why shaft shareholders? And why aren't they defending the share price? I've invested in a lot of companies over the past 15 years and as a shareholder, I've never been put in a situation like this

 

[Tslynk67]

I'm a bit surprised that Tesla aren't making official comment on this China story, this is a bit poor.

Regarding M3 pricing adaptations, I love it. Regarding stores closing, I love it (except for the potential job losses) Regarding the 40% drop in SXP100DL pricing, I'm totally confused...

 

[neroden]

Almost certainly *I* am right and gross margin is negative on the 35k$ model 3. The non-cash components include warranty which is around $1500 and depreciation and probably some other categories.

Apologies for any disagreement; I've been primarily using cash accounting because accrual accounting has too much hinkiness in it to be useful right now. Tesla's warranty reserves are fairly accurate so that is useful (though I don't believe they're that high for Model 3 -- do you have a citation?). But the depreciation is screwball and doesn't correspond to the real world (which is unfortunately normal for corporate depreciation) -- some depreciation schedules are too long, others too short.

 

[Joe F]

Not to mention very high volume in just over an hour. And heavy open interest in weekly puts.
Was waiting for a dip below 270; Not sure it hits it today...

 

[Tslynk67]

If only I could read the Caixin report. At least the previous source which reported the leak asked for response from Tesla ("never heard anything") and Customs in Tianjin ("never heard of this").

Probably Tesla didn't have the Chinese equivalent of the Monroney stickers applied correctly. :sigh: They can print stickers.



Yeah, this looks like a triviality: the Caixin report makes it clear that *four batches* had to be fixed, which is not "everything". Tesla has been known to ship cars without the correct Monroney sticker in the US (they've had to correct this). Four batches of warning stickers and a few corrections to other things. It'll be a delay of a few days.

Tesla should be more careful about their paperwork, but it will be easy to correct.

It lay be fake, it may be trivial, but it's being reported as a big deal, that's the problem.

Edit: I've pinged to see if he has any insight